ON RUGBY:TIME WAS when we said packs win matches and backs decide by how much, but perhaps not any more. Rugby has changed enormously in recent years and nothing illustrates this more than recent trends that disprove the notion that possession is nine-tenths of the law.
According to the IRB’s statistical analysis of last season’s RBS Six Nations, eight of the 15 matches were won by the team who had less of the ball. And so the trend has continued this season. Indeed, over the last weekend, in each instance the team with less possession (and who also made less passes but more tackles) won where it matters most, on the scoreboard.
France beat Wales with 41 per cent of the possession, Italy beat Scotland with 42 per cent of the ball, and Ireland had 41 per cent possession in their victory at Twickenham.
In each case, the vanquished pack could reflect on their efforts in terms of ball-winning with some success. So, statistics, damned lies and yet more statistics? Well, yes and no. Because more than ever, perhaps, possession comes down to, firstly, the quality of the ball and secondly, what a team does with it.
For example, Ireland supposedly had 59 per cent of the ball in their 33-10 defeat to France (though only 45 per cent of the territory), whereas at Twickenham last Saturday Ireland had almost as much territory, 49 per cent, as England. This perhaps shows how the roles were reversed, with England akin to Ireland in Paris in that they shuffled a lot of ball back and forth across the pitch, often in their own half, without really getting anywhere.
In Paris the Ireland team seemed to get a little carried away by the tactic of “having a go” and when falling 17-3 down panicked a little, so much so they became slightly obsessed by the gameplan as opposed to selectively employing it as they had done in Croke Park last season.
By contrast, on Saturday, Ireland played territory when it was right to do so, and ran the ball when it was right to do so, even if this was in their own half – the first Tommy Bowe try off turnover ball being the classic case in point. In hindsight, as Bob Casey suggested in these pages yesterday, Martin Johnson and England might rue putting so much ball through the hands and not playing more territory early on, going to their pack as they did in the second half.
Magnificent defensive performances by both Ireland and Italy went a long way toward earning them their wins on Saturday, but ultimately they still had to make things happen. Italy beat the Scots because they scored the only try of the match through Gonzalo Canale’s superb line, footwork and offload, and the support line of Pablo Canavosio, who again looked a better scrumhalf than Tito Tebaldi.
France too can attribute their win in Cardiff to their defence more than their offence, for it earned them their two intercept tries in the first half. In truth, they created little. By contrast, Wales take their policy of trying to make it happen to the nth degree, and defensive coach Shaun Edwards has calculated that 30 per cent of the tries they’ve conceded in the last 18 months have been through interceptions.
Once again, though, Wales showed what an innately gifted collection of backs they possess when they have no option but to take risks and trust their attacking and creative instincts. Instructively, however, their comeback began with a couple of three-pointers by Stephen Jones, which gave them and their crowd something to build on, and also put doubts in French minds.
When Ireland were afforded a penalty from the right-hand touchline early in the second half at Twickenham, Brian O’Driscoll instructed Jonathan Sexton to go for the posts when leading 8-6. Compared to a first-half effort from inside half-way, it was the toughest of angles, which coupled with two tries in the corner didn’t do much for Sexton’s kicking stats. But it was the right call and showed Ireland had learned plenty of lessons from Paris, where they had eschewed six points from kickable penalties with quick taps.
Referee Mark Lawrence withstood plenty of talking and complaining from Steve Borthwick especially, and at times seemed a bit harsher on Ireland, yet his communication could not have been more clear and the changed emphasis in favour of the attacking team has possibly made the balance about right again.
Though most of the marginal calls went England’s way, Lawrence had a very positive impact on the game generally and Declan Kidney had no complaints about the 14-6 penalty count. Instead, as is a familiar refrain after another English defeat to Ireland, there were complaints about a referee’s decision – namely his interpretation of the critical late turnover scrum engineered by Ireland off England’s last rumble toward the Irish line.
Technically, like much else, Lawrence was spot on, and Johnson’s repeated complaints about this were as risible as his continual references to the “wet” conditions which, aside from being the same for both sides, were if anything more suited to England’s lumbering game.
This, for example, is the country that mauled France into the Sydney turf when the heavens opened for the 2003 World Cup semi-final, when they probably conducted a rain dance in their team hotel. Jonny Wilkinson steered them home that night. He’s no longer the miracle worker and he had a decidedly mixed afternoon, but he was left somewhat marooned on Saturday, especially by the anonymous Riki Flutey in a backline comparatively short of leaders. No less than not being their panacea to all ills before, he’s not the only culpable player now.
PS: As an aside, the BBC seem to take any criticism of their Six Nations coverage – be it constructive or otherwise, a mite too sensitively. They had copped much of the flak for the decision to have the Wales-France game held on a Friday night for a number of reasons. It can detract from much of the traditional Friday night fare on Six Nations' weekends, be it under-age or other representative games, or charity matches such as the English-Irish legends match last Friday, while English and Welsh media made much of the difficulties this posed for travelling support.
Somewhat pointedly, presenter John Inverdale went out of his way to claim he had never seen so many travelling French fans in the Millennium Stadium and it seemed as if BBC cameras repeatedly zoned in on tiny pockets of blue-clad supporters at any opportunity they could get during the game.
Rather pathetic, really.
