Pool D Permutations:Ireland, it is known, require a miracle to keep their faint World Cup hopes alive when they face Argentina in Parc des Princes on Sunday, needing not only to beat the South Americans but by more than seven points while scoring at least four tries, writes Gerry Thornley.
But that miracle would truly assume biblical proportions if France don't beat Georgia with a bonus point in Marseilles on Sunday just beforehand.
In effect, Ireland would be out before the kick-off (5pm local time, 4pm Irish) in Paris. France, currently second in the pool on 10 points, would move to 14 if they beat Georgia (their game kicks off at 3pm local time, 2pm Irish) but didn't obtain a bonus point. In that scenario if Ireland (on nine points) beat the Pumas, while also procuring a bonus point and denying Argentina one, it would ensure a three-way tie on 14 points.
The tournament rules decree that in the event of two or more sides finishing level, the first criterion for determining the final places would be the winners of the relevant head-to-heads.
As each team would have beaten the other once, the final ranking would be determined by the second criterion, namely the points difference in all four pool matches.
As things stand, Argentina's points difference is +95, ahead of France (+94) and Ireland (-3). Therefore, if France beat Georgia without a bonus point, Ireland would not only have to beat Argentina with a bonus point while denying the Pumas one, they would also have to win the Parc des Princes encounter by at least 50 points to make up the current 98-point differential between the two sides.
Suffice to say then, it is very much in Ireland's interests that France comfortably beat the Georgians and record a bonus point.
To this end France should be helped by an itinerary which for the second time has obliged Georgia to play two games in a five-day period, having won their "final" against Namibia in Lens last night.
One other item perhaps needs clarification. It is wrongly, if understandably, assumed in some quarters that Ireland will be required to qualify for the 2011 World Cup in New Zealand if they finish third in Pool D.
In fact, in August the International Rugby Board shifted the goalposts on the automatic qualification for the next World Cup by decreeing that the top three in each of the four pools shall qualify directly for the 2011 finals. So Ireland's 14-10 win over Georgia ensured they won't have to qualify next time round.
