South Africa - 31 Ireland - 17: The subplots may change, the cast list may change, but ultimately the script pans out the same way. Ireland's Triple Crown-winning vintage of 2004 went the way of far less celebrated Irish teams in Bloemfontein's Vodacom Park on Saturday. Perhaps the surprise is that we should even be surprised.
Some, mindful of history no doubt, weren't, and certainly there was always a scenario that these redesigned Springboks would be a good deal better than most of their own media or public could have hoped. And also that a comparatively settled and successful Irish side would not play up to scratch.
Throw in the effects of altitude, a highly charged, highly partisan Free State capacity crowd of 40,000 (a backhanded compliment in itself to Brian O'Driscoll and co), and this tour opener panned out like so many others in Bloemfontein.
There was also every likelihood that these Springboks would simply commit suicide rather than contemplate losing to a side like Ireland at home. Their whole international season - with a Tri-Nations to come - would have been put on the back foot.
Funny, isn't it, how rugby games invariably come down to the simple criteria of who wants it more. Eddie O'Sullivan had bullishly talked up the prize at stake, but Ireland had been sated to a degree by their Triple Crown heroics and perhaps lacked that anxiety, or fear factor, that they'd taken to Twickenham.
There was never going to be too many frills as to how the Boks approached it. Strikingly stronger in physical contact, they engaged in lots of straight, hard running at the Irish 10-12-13 channels - most obviously by the ubiquitous Schalk Burger and his fellow back-row rumblers Pedrie Wannenburg and Jacques Cronje - as well as quick recycling and changing the point of attack to out wide.
The Irish players didn't actually miss too many tackles, but they needed to be more aggressive, to take another step or two forward, and by the last half-hour they were allowing the Boks palpably more space to play with.
Not that the Boks had to do too much for their early, confidence-building breakthrough. Ronan O'Gara's miscued touch kick out on the full gave them the lineout platform to launch the steam trains over three phases, and the slowness of the ruck ball from Burger taking it up lured Irish players to the breakdown in the belief that a turnover was in the offing.
When it was wrestled free, Bakkies Botha had ample room in the channel outside O'Gara to plunder the first try.
There was similar space for Wayne Julies to score in the same channel for the Boks' crucial second try after Cronje had made the initial inroads out wide off Shane Horgan's deflected, one-handed intercept.
Botha and his comparatively quiet Blue Bulls second-row partner Victor Matfield had predictably been galvanised by the thought of taking on Malcolm O'Kelly and Paul O'Connell in Ireland's highly vaunted lineout. What you might call red rags to bulls.
The Boks had more of the throw, where Ireland were surprisingly uncompetitive, and though one trademark drive led to O'Gara restoring Ireland's lead at 14-11 just after the resumption, the Boks employed the maul to far more telling effect.
The Boks' lineout misfired a little more, but the most telling example of the lack of edge to Ireland's game was the seven-pointer they gift-wrapped to Botha when Shane Byrne overthrew to O'Connell on their own line for the Boks' third try. That normally wouldn't happen in a month of Saturdays.
The Boks scrum always had the measure of Ireland's scrum when they got to within sniffing range of the whitewash, and though Wannenburg's grounding of the ball looked dubious for the fourth try, it was fair reward for the shove they put on.
Yet there had been a time after their early setback when Ireland's greater cohesion, organisation and flair had given them the whip hand. However, they probably had to get a few more points on the board rather than turn around at 11-all.
The ease with which O'Driscoll carved through Julies and Andre Joubert (the latter pushing up to leave an inviting gap) off second phase to put Horgan over gave promise of more of the same against a defensive system that looked the least impressive or cohesive aspect of these remodelled Springboks.
The same was true when Gordon D'Arcy stepped out of Julies's tackle to give the underemployed Geordan Murphy a run up the line. Alas, they couldn't establish the platform to go wide often enough, and with D'Arcy hit late, the groin strain that forced his departure was a hammer blow. Much of their invention emanates from the O'Driscoll-D'Arcy box of tricks and ability to beat a man.
Well though Maggs played, surprisingly as a straight swap at outside centre, his introduction left too much of an onus on O'Driscoll. He tried manfully, and was one of Ireland's few bright lights on the day, though the fear must be that the Boks will crowd him next week.
The platform for the try had been a lineout variation that had seen Reggie Corrigan transfer Anthony Foley's take to O'Connell - a rare example of Ireland launching runners off their lineout. The more customary means of go-forward, the maul, struggled for initial momentum save for the build-up to O'Gara's drop goal.
Indeed, save for O'Gara's boot (and much of that was under fierce pressure) Ireland's means of go-forward ball was confined to a break out of nothing by David Wallace - which led to one of O'Gara's three penalties.
But while Wallace was taken off to accommodate Alan Quinlan, Donncha O'Callaghan was left on the bench as O'Kelly wilted, and entering the last 10 or so - all the more so without D'Arcy's trickery - there seemed an equally strong, nothing-to-lose case for unleashing David Humphreys's more daring, catch-up game.
Ireland will assuredly regroup, and the lineout will benefit from studying the Boks' opening hand, though D'Arcy's loss removes one of the prime weapons.
After a game under their belts, so might the Boks, of course.
Scoring sequence: 4 mins: Botha try 5-0; 9: O'Gara pen 5-3; 12: du Toit pen 8-3; 14: Horgan try 8-8; 18: O'Gara pen 8-11; 21: du Toit pen 11-11 (half-time 11-11); 43: O'Gara pen 11-14; 48: Julies try 16-14; 52: Botha try 21-14; 64: O'Gara pen 21-17; 67: Wannenburg try, du Toit con 28-17; 73: du Toit pen 31-17.
SOUTH AFRICA: G du Toit (Stormers); B Paulse (Stormers), M Joubert (Stormers), W Julies (Cats), H Mentz (Sharks); J van der Westhuyzen (Leicester), F du Preez (Bulls); O du Randt (Cats), J Smit (Sharks, capt), E Andrews (Stormers), B Botha (Bulls), V Matfield (Bulls), S Burger (Stormers), P Wannenburg (Bulls), J Cronje (Bulls). Replacements: CJ van der Linde (Cats) for Andrews (56 mins), G Britz (Cats) for Cronje (62 mins).
IRELAND: G Dempsey (Leinster, Terenure College); S Horgan (Leinster, Lansdowne), G D'Arcy (Leinster, Lansdowne), B O'Driscoll (Leinster, Blackrock College, capt), G Murphy (Leicester); R O'Gara (Munster, Cork Constitution), P Stringer (Munster, Shannon); R Corrigan (Leinster, Greystones), S Byrne (Leinster, Blackrock College), J Hayes (Munster, Shannon), M O'Kelly (Leinster, St Mary's College), P O'Connell (Munster, Young Munster), S Easterby (Llanelli), D Wallace (Munster, Garryowen), A Foley (Munster, Shannon). Replacements: K Maggs (Bath) for D'Arcy (34 mins), M Horan (Munster, Shannon) for Corrigan (61 mins), F Sheahan (Munster, Cork Constitution) for Byrne, A Quinlan (Munster, Shannon) for Wallace (both 74 mins).
Referee: Tony Spreadbury (England).