RUGBY ANALYST:I'VE ALWAYS been taught to expect the unexpected. And with the advent of professionalism, full-time coaches and players and – most importantly – the video analyst, this has never been more apt. These backroom boys are as important, if not more so, than the combined coaching ticket.
The modern analyst will stream live footage to the coach with facts, figures and statistics which the coach requires. So within minutes of kick-off the coach will have real-time statistics from which he can make strategic decisions based on hard evidence. Therefore, the stronger the analyst, the more predictable the unexpected becomes.
Take Dermot Earley of Kildare, possibly the finest fielder of a Gaelic football of his generation. By half-time does his coach, Kieran McGeeney, know the effect his fielding has had on the fixture? Does he know, for instance, that six balls were kicked out to Earley and he maybe broke two, missed one and caught three?
Does he know what happened from the three he caught?
Therefore, can he make tactical decisions that may have a greater influence?
This is the role of the video analyst. In rugby, a game of far more intricacies, accurate information can make a huge difference.
But half-time is often too late to make those changes. Hence it is no coincidence that Mervin Murphy brings the kicking tee out to Ronan O’Gara. For it is Murphy who spends hours analysing Ireland, the opposition and – importantly – the referee. He, in 20 seconds, can have a monumental influence over proceedings.
It is with this in mind that the Scottish backroom could become Ireland’s downfall tomorrow. The best attack and defence can be coped with (to a degree) when it doesn’t continue to evolve rapidly. Scotland will gain comfort from the history between the sides and also Ireland’s relative predictability over the three previous encounters.
So Ireland must continue their steady progress towards the complete game with suitable measures of unpredictability.
That’s why the four changes to the starting line-up are vital. And it’ll be Ireland’s back three who will reap the biggest rewards from the changes.
But both Tommy Bowe and Luke Fitzgerald must force their way. With Chris Paterson at fullback and Simon Danielli out wide, the Scots will be hungry for space, so we should keep them in their place.
Outside of the other changes to the Ireland side, all of which add real value to their grand slam ambitions, I’m delighted for Rory Best and, similarly, for Jerry Flannery. The two are neck-and-neck in all departments, and it isn’t beyond the realms of possibility that both will travel to South Africa.
A hybrid version would be untouchable, but individually, they are way ahead of Lee Mears and co. Their competition for the Ireland starting slot will get them both on the plane to South Africa.
However, my battle of the match will be between Scotland’s tighthead Lion contender Euan Murray and Marcus Horan.
So to Ulster’s victory over Glasgow Warriors last weekend. I wonder has Matt Williams been allowed to influence tomorrow’s fixture? Certainly the future is looking brighter in Ulster than for some time, but it’s his past that could prove fruitful to Declan Kidney. Williams knows the Scottish game inside out. Has Kidney included Williams this week?
While covering the Ulster versus Glasgow Magners League match last Saturday, I paid particular attention to the Ulster warm-up, from which it was evident Ulster intended to utilise their wingers. They ran hard lines off the blindside, and both wingers either carried or provided ample decoys.
The opening 15 minutes had Andrew Trimble and Danielli putting terrible pressure on the Scots, but then the weather came in and with it Ulster’s ambition was dampened.
Ireland can’t afford to allow external conditions to dampen their spirit.
One such distraction will be the most capped international referee, South African Jonathan Kaplan. His 50th cap awaits him tomorrow, but it was his 49th that worries me. He officiated between Wales and England in round two, and his view of the breakdown was very much at odds with our Home Nations referees. Watch the breakdown closely. He will allow players the luxury to go off their feet at will.
This is a serious threat to Ireland, as the Scots will attempt to mimic a long list of spoilers. The Scots will use their big pack to stunt our back three, and Kaplan’s take on the breakdown will aid and abet them.
Interestingly, his South African namesake (Jonathan Kaplan), the eminent surgeon and author of Dressing Station and Contact Wounds, in which he has recounted his education as a surgeon in South Africa and subsequent career treating the victims of modern warfare, has many similarities with tomorrow's referee, as is indicated by his answer to a question from editor Paul Comstock during an interview for the California Literary Review.
“You’ve purposely put yourself into dangerous situations throughout your life. Why do you do it?”
“My skills have become suited towards crude extremes of suffering – war trauma, humanitarian crises. There is little other market for my abilities, or for the odd combination I suffer of imperfect clinical detachment, the vice of restlessness and some tarnished shreds of idealism. It is really only in the world’s darker corners that they have any chance to shine.”
Murrayfield?
Finally, it’s hard not to be conscious of the other match this weekend, where the “big” two step it out. France were magnificent against Wales, but with Simon Shaw returning into the engine room I think that England will beat France and prove to many and even themselves that although they are a long way from the RWC 2003 side they’re marching ever closer.
As for their discipline issues, I’m reminded of the dieter’s mantra, “It takes three weeks to break a habit and three weeks to make a habit”, so it is with some concern that I read of Steve Borthwick’s lessons learned.
English discipline will take a little while longer, Steve, I fancy.
