RUGBY:Kick or run at their first turnover? A choice that may well define Ireland's World Cup season, writes MATT WILLIAMS
CHARLES DARWIN said: “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but rather the one most responsive to change.”
Rugby Union has changed dramatically this year. As usual New Zealand adapted quickest, with Australia close behind. South Africa, under Peter de Villiers, have stagnated.
The 2010 Tri-Nations saw a revolution in where teams source possession. Possession is like a cash flow to a business, without cash flow you are sunk. In rugby it used to come mainly from set-plays (hence, South Africa won the 2007 World Cup), penalties, opposition kicks and turnovers. But the 2010 Tri-Nations provided the revolution in the possession stakes due to the new tackle interpretations. The Wallabies, even more than the All Blacks, denied opposing teams from gaining a platform off lineouts by refusing to kick the ball off the paddock. It meant the Springboks and New Zealand couldn’t build attacks off the lineout platform unless they won penalties.
The new Australian mindset was determined not to kick the ball back to the opposition when the laws make it easier to retain possession and build the phases. The ultimate example is Australia beating South Africa in Brisbane with Wallaby outhalf Quade Cooper putting boot to ball once in 80 minutes. Like New Zealand, they had the personnel to adapt to change. This tactic was designed to beat South Africa. Don’t provide Victor Matfield with the opportunity to show his magnificence in the lineout.
Australia eventually beat New Zealand last weekend in Hong Kong, after 10 attempts. Under Robbie Deans’ coaching philosophy, they took the New Zealand game plan and added their own stamp to it. It allowed them to finally overcome the best team on the planet with inferior players. It also reopened the mental scars for the All Blacks dating back to 2007. This is the model Ireland can look to.
In stark contrast, the world champions have patently failed to evolve. Going back to Darwin’s theory, the ’Boks are the strongest but have failed to respond to change. Morne Steyn will kick plenty of ball this evening. It gives Ireland a choice because the tactics that delivered a Grand Slam in 2009 were not enough last season and will be severely exposed by the All Blacks in two weeks’ time and Australia come the World Cup next year. The key is to counter-attack from every one of those kicks.
So, there will be plenty of scrums and lineouts today but it will mask what is coming down the tracks. New Zealand will not kick the ball to us. Will Jonny Sexton, Rob Kearney and others kick it back to South Africa? If Ireland fail to develop their game away from set-plays they will be left behind. A radical rethink of ball usage, I presume, has already been initiated by the Irish management. The big question now is whether they will empower the players to adapt.
The tempo must be sped up. Tommy Bowe’s first try against England last year was off a turnover in the tackle. David Wallace improvised at scrumhalf and passed to Stephen Ferris and then Jamie Heaslip shifted possession to Sexton who put in a clever grubber kick for Bowe to gather and score. This was a sign of the unshackled blueprint for success. Off a penalty in Irish territory it makes sense to kick for touch but off a bent arm, Eoin Reddan must tap and go. And his forwards must be ready.
The actions of Rob Kearney, in particular, will tell us if Ireland are prepared to adapt. Having watched him since he was a kid, Kearney is clearly on the verge of becoming a great player. He is brave, excellent under high ball, a competent defender and an aggressive, skilful runner. The last piece in the jigsaw is his ability to bring players into a counter-attack by offloading in the tackle but he needs the assistance of team-mates to make this final leap. Too often he is tackled without passing.
When Steyn kicks long, Kearney will gather. Two options: kick it or attack. Kearney (like Bowe and Luke Fitzgerald) has a natural instinct to run but unless the wingers and other powerful runners from the centre and backrow funnel back to support, his counter-attacking will be exposed to a turnover.
Brian Ashton said it best: “Mindset drives performance.”
Rob should look at former Wallaby fullback Chris Latham. There is an Australian technique Latham used time and again – gather a kick, look to spread it wide quickly but demand it back immediately from the first receiver and attack the short-side. The main principle of counter-attacking is to go where there are fewest defenders and to support the ball carrier.
The IRFU have stated the World Cup is the priority. During the Eddie O’Sullivan era it was of equal importance to the Six Nations. On that presumption, a change in mindset, to enable Ireland to beat Australia in the pool match next year, must become evident this month.
Ireland have the tools to become a brilliant running side. Picture Cian Healy, Ferris, Wallace and Heaslip powering onto the ball after Kearney and the wingers make inroads. An exciting thought. This style is not to be confused with the Barbarians’ all-out running game, evident in the defeat to Scotland at Croke Park in March. Every time a player passes he is making a decision. Ball-in-hand rugby requires a clever, precise and disciplined mindset. It is not called 15-man rugby for nothing. Everyone must be aligned and willing to be part of the attack.
However, kicking does not become redundant. Mick Byrne is the All Blacks kicking coach. For an Aussie to be employed by the Kiwis means he knows his business. A former AFL player with over 250 games for Hawthorn, I brought Mick to Leinster and then Scotland. He also worked with Saracens. You can see his influence in the low trajectory of Dan Carter’s cross field punts to Cory Jane during the Tri-Nations. It is a familiar Irish tactic but Carter does it with less height on the kick and less chance of a knock-on or turnover.
Mick calls it “a pass off the foot”. Outhalf to winger. The Springboks defend so tightly that Carter exposed the space outside the winger. He did it almost exclusively from his own 22 as opposed to feeding Matfield’s aerial prowess around halfway or allowing Bryan Habana a chance to gallop into open space.
Sexton will look for Bowe at some stage. If they have studied this watershed Tri-Nations, they can expose the ’Boks. Ireland mimicked South Africa these past few years by kicking away 50 per cent of possession and relying on an abrasive forwards’ game and Paul O’Connell’s excellence out of touch (O’Connell is out so other key strengths must be utilised).
Australia and New Zealand went another way. As a result, they have streaked clear of the Springboks. The route Ireland will travel down will become apparent from the first turnover they get today. Kick or run. A simple choice that may well define their World Cup season.
Of course there is the fear of losing a sixth game on the bounce but a commitment to the new process will yield results. Forget about the referee’s breakdown interpretations. Everyone knows the drill. Possession is king. We know this Ireland squad has the necessary character and is littered with cerebral players. November will tell us if they can adapt to the sweeping changes within the game.
