A bruised and battered Ireland seek redemption today as unnerving 1 to 6 favourites against the old bugbears from Scotland, a 4 to 1 shot, and with that wily silver fox Ian McGeechan plotting yet another Irish downfall. Oh dear. It all looks very ominous.
Beware of Scottish underdogs? You'd have thought that after one win in the last 12 years of the fixture Ireland would have learned their lessons by now. Scotland by rights have targeted this one as their banker win, and it has usually back-boned a decent season for them.
Seeking to explain Scotland's Indian sign, Ireland coach Eddie O'Sullivan said it reflected the quality of their players. But, inevitably, he quickly came to the name of McGeechan, his Scottish counterpart.
"I believe he's one of the best rugby minds in the world . . . He's a guy who's consistently able to maximise the potential of his team, which is what great coaches do all the time."
It's been said that this isn't a vintage Scottish crop, but then what constitutes a vintage Scottish crop? "An honest side," is how McGeechan describes his current outfit. With high-class performers in key positions, such as a prime ball-winner in the lineout in Scott Murray, a genuine spoiling groundhog in Budge Pountney, a canny scrumhalf-cum-leader in Bryan Redpath, an unorthodox and sometimes brilliant playmaker in Gregor Townsend, and with possible place-kicking salvation in their latest kilted Kiwi Brendan Laney, they've more going for them than previous Scottish sides to have done numbers on Ireland.
If Townsend gets the room and time Jonny Wilkinson was afforded at Twickenham two weeks ago, Ireland will be in trouble, and McGeechan has been telling anyone prepared to listen that the mercurial one is now an improved team player.
"I've always believed he's a visionary. We'll look back and think he was just one of those special players that we've produced. You don't coach some of the things that he does.
"But he's got a maturity about what he's doing now and he's been looking at his role very much from a team perspective. He's taken more responsibility in our preparation, and all that is helping, not just him, but the other players as well."
Coming midway through the campaign, and with both sides put in their place by England, there's a sense of After the Lord Mayor's Ball about this fixture. But for both this is a pivotal game which will go a long way towards determining whether they'll have a decent championship.
Ireland have home advantage, but this could be negated by the extra pressure to win after last year's second placing. O'Sullivan maintained yesterday that the players had put the English defeat to bed, but they'd be only human if doubts crept in should they lose a lineout or two early on or, given the jarring nature of their porous defensive display in Twickenham, if one or two holes appeared in their line.
So often the interpretation in the last dozen years has been that Ireland lost games to Scotland, especially at Lansdowne Road. Two years ago they broke that trend by applying extreme pressure on the Scots and scoring two long-range, turnover tries. Ireland must apply that pressure again, playing as much of the game as possible in the Scottish half, then pushing up hard to exploit any spillages or turnovers in contact.
A key component to Ireland's win over England in October was their offensive defence. Their tackling in their opponents' half pinned England down and, allied to David Humphreys' masterful tactical kicking, helped Ireland to get the better territorially.
Needless to say, the Irish pack needs to improve on its Twickenham performance, and it could be that the decision to give this team one more chance will prove a masterstroke. In almost time-honoured fashion, Ireland look primed for a backlash.
Even though the Scots have four lineout options, and Murray had the edge on Malcolm O'Kelly last September, O'Kelly shouldn't let that happen again, and the Irish lineout should be a good deal more pro-active than two weeks ago, with perhaps greater use being made of Eric Miller. If the Irish ball-winners do their stuff, Ireland have the runners in the back row and out wide to win this one.
"The weather conditions will be a small factor as well but I would take today's conditions tomorrow if I got them," said O'Sullivan after a light Irish run-out at Lansdowne Road.
"I hope it doesn't rain, and the wind stays where it is at the moment - or even lower - because I think that (a strong wind) would spoil the game. Scotland and Ireland play a similar type of game with the ball in hand as much as possible . . . so that should make it interesting."
Yet perhaps the last thing Ireland would want is one of those fast, frenetic and slightly madcap games that the Scots thrive on. Usually, it would be taken as read that the performance comes first. This time though, a good oul' Munster-type win and thanks for the dance would do nicely. Ireland's assistant coach, Declan Kidney, maintained yesterday that "one doesn't follow without the other, and a good performance in the opening 15 minutes especially is important. But if we can win with a last minute drop-goal, I'll be happy."
He wouldn't be the only one.
BETTING: (Paddy Powers): 1/6 Ireland, 20/1 Draw, 4/1 Scotland. Handicap betting (Scotland +14pts) 10/11 Ireland, 16/1 Draw, 10/11 Scotland.
REPLACEMENTS: Ireland - S Byrne (Leinster), P Wallace (Leinster), G Longwell (Ulster), S Easterby (Llanelli), G Easterby (Llanelli), R O'Gara (Munster), J Kelly (Munster); Scotland - G Graham (Newcastle), R Russell (Saracens), M Leslie (Edinburgh), J Petrie (Glasgow), G Beveridge (Glasgow), D Hodge (Edinburgh), K Logan (Wasps)
REFEREE: Nigel Whitehouse (Wales)
TOUCH JUDGES: Steve Lander (Eng) and Joel Jutge (Fra)
