CROSS COUNTRY WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS: Tough final team declarations won't be known until Friday, the opportunity for an Irish medal at the World Cross-Country Championships has opened a little wider. The women's 4km short course team, the focus of the Irish effort, learned yesterday that they face a much less daunting African challenge than initially feared.
Definitely not coming to Leopardstown this weekend is defending short course champion Gete Wami of Ethiopia. Troubled by a knee injury all winter, Wami has been unable to gain sufficient fitness in time for the event and will now concentrate on the summer track season.
Fellow Ethiopian and 2000 champion Derartu Tulu is also skipping cross-country this winter and instead will focus on next month's London Marathon, where last year she made a winning debut at the distance.
Ethiopia are still sending a short course team - despite earlier reports they wouldn't - but on paper at least it appears a less formidable team than that which won a year ago. Only two athletes return from their winning six (Werknesh Kidane and Genet Gebregiorgis) while also absent is Berhane Adere, who improved the indoor 3,000 metre world record last month.
The Kenyans, who took silver last year, appear more focused on Saturday's long course 8km race. Edith Masai is the only athlete returning and the other five have questionable experience. Instead their stronger runners such as Rose Cheruiyot and Leah Malot go in the longer race.
Irish team manager Jerry Kiernan feels that an improvement on Belgium last year (sixth-place team finish) would be the bottom line for the Irish. "Looking at the results of last year I definitely feel we have the wherewithal to win medals," he said. "But I wouldn't rule out the Africans just because the are missing some big names.
"Unlike us they have great inter-changeability. Perhaps the short course race isn't as tough as last year, but it won't be easy. The team could run very well and still finish fifth or sixth because nothing comes easy at this level. And I would feel a lot happier about our chances if Breda Dennehy-Willis was in there."
Still, the absence of Wami and Tulu is also good news for Sonia O'Sullivan in her quest for individual glory.
With Britain's Paula Radcliffe limiting herself to the defence of her long course title, there is no clear short course favourite and even with her swift return from the maternity ward O'Sullivan appears ever more capable of mixing it with the Africans.
The US team also had medal winning potential but they have lost the service of their number one, Regina Jacobs. She was the clear winner of the US trials last month - her second consecutive title - and also produced a remarkable indoor season that included world bests over two and three miles.
Jacobs is surprisingly concentrating all her efforts preparing for the women's steeplechase this summer - a new event yet to gain any real status on the international circuit. The team is now built around Suzy Favor Hamilton, only third in their trials and far from being a cross-country specialist.
It seems more likely that Ireland's main threat after the Africans are Romania and Portugal. Romania took third last year and are known for their strong team running and Portugal are putting all their emphasis on the short course race this year, built around the highly experienced Carla Sacramento.
On the men's side, however, the African presence remains ominous.
The Kenyans are chasing their 17th successive team title in the men's long course race and led by world 5,000-metre champion Richard Limo and 10,000-metre champion Charles Kamathi there is little to suggest they will fail.
Cathal Lombard has been ruled out of the Irish men's long course team because of illness, a notable loss considering his third-place finish at the national championships. John Burke, who finished seventh, comes in as a replacement.
Ethiopia believe they can at least win the individual title with Kenenisa Bekele. He won the junior race by a record 33 seconds in Ostend last year and also took second in the senior short course. Already regarded as the successor to Haile Gebrselassie he is attempting a long and short course double - a feat only achieved before by Sonia O'Sullivan.