D-Day has arrived (Lansdowne Road, 3.0). Ireland's mission: to boldly go where no Irish team has gone before in the last decade and win their opening Five Nations game. What's more, by playing bold rugby.

Ironically, that last opening win was also the last time Ireland sampled victory over the Scottish bugbear - by 22-18. Ireland's forte has never been playing catch-up rugby and this team doesn't look like the exception.

Should Ireland lose today the prognosis is grim. A month of staring into a Parisian abyss. Postmatch inquests; a further drop in self-belief; a management and team under fire, with the possibility of the rumblings of discontent within the management/coaching structure resurfacing. We're talking serious meltdown here.

Then again, the air seems to have cleared and the Irish squad is a harmonious looking camp. Were they to win, they'd be happier still. There's no telling what it would do for this formative Irish side.

Opening matches in the Five Nations are always pivotal affairs, but this one looks even more so given this year's schedule and the nature of both teams. The theory goes that Ireland have drawn the longest straw, in that a home game with the Scots affords them their best chance of winning.

Then again the theory will be left in shreds if Ireland don't win. And we have been down this road before, most recently with a depressingly anti-climactic defeat to the Scots two years ago. The Scots, after all, will be viewing this game in much the same light.

Furthermore, as the away side, there's an argument for believing that there's less pressure on them. They will still have two games to go, including their near banker visit of the French to Murrayfield.

So it's a huge game, a monumental game. But you almost feel like whispering it, because ultimately this game could be won by the side which fears losing the least. Psychologically, the Irish management seem to have got this one right. The Irish are not approaching this game as a make-or-break affair. Ashton has been true to his principles. If this Ireland team finally puts the training theories into practice and clicks, then they could win in some style.

So they need to be positive and fearless, but also passionate without being reckless. This is a mild area of concern. Debating Ireland's prospects on Sky recently, Dewi Morris spouted the usual, cliched stuff. You cannot question the Irish passion quotient, he said. But on recent evidence, Stuart Barnes declared that yes, you can.

Ashton, a technically excellent coach who was used to dealing with quality performers and winners at Bath, enjoys the backing of his players when it comes to the philosophy. But he doesn't strike you as the man with the passion. Cue Keith Wood.

"We're sick of the Scots," the captain said on Thursday. That's also what Ireland need; to take a leaf out of the All Blacks' credo and hate the opposition for 80 minutes. Fingers crossed Wood completes his first 80 minutes for Ireland in over a year. And with David Corkery back in the fold and eager to prove a point or two, the passion should be restored.

An injury-free Wood is liable to have a big game. The Scots don't have such a dynamic figure in their pack, who can affect the game so much as a ball-carrier. Likewise, if Eric Miller is on song.

Admittedly, the ifs are starting to mount up and they don't end there.

Brian O'Meara and David Humphreys are the same halfbacks who finished the last meeting with the Scots on the bench and on the wing respectively. The gifted, enigmatic Humphreys is a particularly fragile figure. But an encouraging start, and maybe an early penalty or two, could herald one of his more confident, Bologna-like days. At home, that's more likely.

Save for the return of Gary Armstrong, instead of Brian Redpath, it is the same Scottish back-line which made Ireland's defence resemble a soup-strainer last March. In midfield, the streetwise Scots have an edge in physique, and 108 more caps (which even excludes Alan Tait's eight-year rugby league odyssey).

There is certainly a scenario in which the Scots could win, and this is the area where it could most possibly happen. The reversal in positions of Craig Chalmers and Gregor Townsend probably makes the team better. Townsend is a true creator, one of the the first European in-your-face outhalves. But Chalmers has the less risky and better kicking game, and if he takes the ball flat, then Townsend could be even more dangerous playing off him.

Ireland have to make their tackles - big time. A more balanced back-row adds to the belief that they can. There is also strong evidence that they will have a better forward platform. The set-pieces have been going well all season and the scrum, under the watchful eye of Warren Gatland, could reap big dividends - all the more so as an inexperienced Scottish frontrow contains two reserve club team props.

Worryingly, Doddie Wier outplayed Malcolm O'Kelly when Newcastle beat London Irish, and with Telfer back, the Scots ought to have more line-out variations than they did in Treviso. But Damien Cronin hardly looks like 80-minute material. Presumably then, this will break even more or less given Wood's sometimes suspect radar has rarely let Ireland down.

Then there's the rucks, where the Scots have wiped Ireland off the pitch too regularly this last decade. But the Irish look well prepared here, and with the retention of Reggie Corrigan and the return of Paul Wallace, it looks to be one of the most mobile Irish packs in some time.

The Italian barometer has been diminished by events since. The Scots' change of coach and more modest reshuffling should bring an improvement - not least because Armstrong and co will fear incurring Telfer's wrath afterwards.

However, this Irish team ought to be considerably better and if they're in touch, or even ahead going into the last quarter, then the crowd can help carry them home. There are a few ifs, a bit too many for comfort perhaps. It's not a game you'd like to be putting your mortgage on, but if you had to . . . whisper it softly: Ireland to win.