Gerry Thornley On Rugby: Maybe it was due to taking in the England-New Zealand match at Twickenham on Sunday, but now more than ever it feels as if all roads lead to France and the Coupe du Monde. Suddenly, the 2007 jamboree is only 10 months away but, as ever, the All Blacks appear light years ahead of everyone else.
Rotation, rotation, rotation. Mindful of previous "failures", that's been the buzzword of Graham Henry and his All Blacks brains trust. In pursuit of the most rugby-crazed nation on earth's very own holy grail, they are leaving little or nothing to chance.
They will have a 30-man squad, any of whom they can turn to come the World Cup. That is great for competition, and for morale.
The embodiment of a professionalism, they are inclusively embracing the Super 14 and NPC management staffs, fulfilling World Cup-type media obligations, organising French lessons for their players and using their current tour as a dry run for the World Cup.
There are some players who are more replaceable than others, and no players on the planet would adequately cover for Dan Carter and Richie McCaw. Admittedly blessed with incomparable strength, the difference between the All Blacks and everyone else is they already have relatively tried and trusted cover for every position.
They still seem to be looking for a first-choice lock alongside Chris Jack, their best combination at 13 and 15, and one or two squad positions, such as a lock-cum-backrow, are still open. With regard to a partner for Jack, in the Sunday Times over the weekend Sean Fitzpatrick credited Warren Gatland with the rejuvenation in Keith Robinson's form this year.
On foot of Waikato's thrilling NPC success, the 92-times capped former All Blacks captain suggested Gatland, his former understudy as hooker, might well be called into the national think tank come the World Cup, and added he couldn't believe English rugby had let him go.
This would raise the discomfiting thought of Gatland in the opposing corner were Ireland to run into the All Blacks in the quarter-finals by dint of finishing runners-up in their pool. Not that even these All Blacks are unbeatable. As McCaw recently observed, a repeat of the All Blacks' Tri-Nations form (five wins out of six) would not see them reach their holy grail. Hence, that defeat to the Springboks in September was no bad thing, as it also unburdened them of a huge winning run.
But come the knock-out stages, the memory of past failures could be triggered under pressure. At full strength, and ideally not having used the same team in all four pool games, Ireland look better equipped than most to beat the All Blacks in a one-off. Even so, beating the hosts and topping their group would seem Ireland's best opportunity of going where no Irish team has ever gone in a World Cup, ie to the semi-finals.
To achieve that, and be real contenders, Ireland must be better equipped to utilise their full squad than they were in 2003, when retaining the nucleus of the same starting team certainly appeared to contribute to a flat quarter-final performance against France, and arguably a similar scenario developed in the third Test of the summer tour in Perth.
Since the nadir of last year's autumnal series, Ireland have made huge strides in many areas under Eddie O'Sullivan. At least now Ireland have an identifiable first-choice XV, which is more than England, or perhaps even France, have at this juncture. But, less than a year from the World Cup, in how many positions do Ireland have real competition/alternatives for places? Today's selection to play South Africa contains scarcely two or three, at a push four, obvious conundrums.
Presuming Donncha O'Callaghan's superior form sees him picked ahead of Malcolm O'Kelly, there's an argument for capitalising on Frankie Sheahan's established rapport with the Munster locks, all the more so as the Boks' huge pack is liable to have four or even five real lineout options. Similarly, Simon Easterby's more proven lineout experience may witness a return ahead of Neil Best, although one suspects O'Sullivan may plump for Rory Best at hooker. But presuming Jerry Flannery returns to full fitness and form in the New Year, one suspects that selection will no longer be an issue.
The ankle injury picked up by David Wallace in training yesterday complicates matters for O'Sullivan for unless Keith Gleeson is retained there is no out-and-out openside there. The backline picks itself, presuming Girvan Dempsey's form earns his retention ahead of Geordan Murphy, who has been playing on the wing for Leicester this season.
As things stand though, a straw poll of most devoted Irish rugby watchers would not suggest too many viable options, even in the context of a 30-man World Cup squad. Not in any of the frontrow positions (where even the provinces have struggled at scrum time), not at number eight (where Jamie Heaslip could do with some genuine Test time before the World Cup), not at scrumhalf or outhalf, not even at centre unless Andrew Trimble or, further down the line Barry Murphy, is tried there.
In short were an Irish squad picked from a full bill of health now, as many as eight would be considered relatively unexposed to Test rugby. The near-miss against the All Blacks in the first Test last summer, and the chance to make history a week later, may well have tempered any inclination O'Sullivan had to make more use of his squad.
Winning all three Tests this month would be a hugely credible achievement but inching closer to a credible 30-man squad would almost be as big a prize.
