RACING: Racing Correspondent Brian O'Connor feels a fourth Champion Hurdle success is only days away.
Tuesday
Sometimes it's possible to twist in every direction and miss the obvious staring you in the face: Istabraq doesn't have to be anywhere near his full pomp to make history and win a fourth Champion Hurdle.
Last year the horse was long odds on to do it only to be foiled by foot-and-mouth. The only thing that has really changed since is that we haven't seen him much. Yet that is enough to have 2 to 1 freely available.
Aidan O'Brien reports satisfaction with the champ's preparation and the opposition is hardly going to get Istabraq sweating with fear, whatever about pre-race nerves.
If Valiriamix was trained by anyone else but Martin Pipe, would he be second favourite? Will Landing Light ever be regarded as a really top handicapper? Will Ned Kelly relish that final hill, especially on the back of such uncertainty at the O'Grady yard? These are question marks at least as valid as the ones the rumour-mongers produce about age catching up with Istabraq. The Irish star's ability to attract rumour is beyond compare and his ability to prove them wrong equally so. Watch him do it again on Tuesday.
At time of writing, the ground at Cheltenham is drying up all the time. There is even talk of almost fast conditions by Thursday. The timing could hardly be worse for Like-A-Butterfly. With dig in the ground, she would be something of a good thing for the opener. Is she the same value at short odds on the good? It's doubtful.
If Moscow Flyer jumps well in the Arkle, he will be hard to beat. But that looks a big if after two falls this season and the downhill fence to come. Fondmort is working extremely well and comes from a yard that knows how to win the race.
Tuesday bets: Istabraq (Champion Hurdle) & Fondmort (Arkle Trophy)
Wednesday
The Champion Chase is the official highlight and the ground looks to be coming good for the title holder Edredon Bleu. Ireland's main chance could be Knife Edge, who looks a pacier sort than Native Upmanship. But Flagship Uberalles looks a different horse under the shrewd tutelage of Philip Hobbs and looks the most likely winner, despite doubts about his wind.
The JP McManus-owned Yeoman's Point has a number of entries at the festival including the SunAlliance Hurdle. However, if the novice takes the handicap option in the Coral Eurobet Cup, he looks just the type for the legendary gambler to get stuck into.
The former Stakes winner on the flat hasn't run since finishing runner up to Sacundai at Christmas but appears well enough handicapped and should be ideally suited by the trip.
The ground drying out will not be ideal for either of the two main Irish hopes in the SunAlliance Chase, Colonel Braxton and Harbour Pilot. This is a race that often throws up a long-priced winner and an each-way candidate this time could be the Josh Gifford-trained Silver Streak. For a course and distance winner on his last start, the general 25 to 1 on offer looks tempting.
Alexander Milenium could hardly have picked a worse time to rip a shoe off than this week. But Willie Mullins reports him fit as a flea and if the horse gets to the start, he can continue the trainer's phenomenal record in the Bumper.
Wednesday bets: Yeoman's Point (Coral Cup), Silver Streak (SunAlliance Chase) & Alexander Milenium (Bumper.)
Thursday
Can it be third time lucky for Florida Pearl in the Gold Cup? There are those who say it is just an illogical blind faith that even gives him a sniff of a chance of getting up the final hill. Their case is a solid one, but then Noel Chance, trainer of the favourite Looks Like Trouble, says the one horse he is afraid of is Florida Pearl.
The Irish star is a great enigma, but dismiss him at your peril. Just remember the King George. Cheltenham is a totally different track, but take away Looks Like Trouble two years ago and Florida Pearl would have been a good winner from a good field. At a general 12 to 1, and with the ground drying, he strikes a better outlook than Bacchanal for instance. Looks Like Trouble must be vulnerable with his history of leg problems while Best Mate is not guaranteed to stay.
The other Mullins runner, Alexander Banquet, looks to need a dig in the going but Commanche Court at a general price of 25 to 1 could be an each-way prospect. A place will not be good enough for Florida Pearl but who can rule out the possibility that this will be his year.
For serious punters, however, the bet of the day, and indeed the meeting, may well be Bannow Bay in the Stayers' Hurdle. There is a hot favourite, Baracouda, who looks vulnerable now the ground isn't soft anymore, and there is an Irish horse who goes on anything. There is Thierry Doumen on one and Charlie Swan on the other. Baracouda has beaten nothing of note this season. Bannow Bay has tackled Limestone Lad and won. There is 5/1 out there in internet land. Take it now.
Thursday bet: Bannow Bay (Stayers' Hurdle.)