It's do or die, but England can progress

WHEN THEY first found themselves supporting their then newborn national team in a major football championship eight years ago…

WHEN THEY first found themselves supporting their then newborn national team in a major football championship eight years ago, Slovenian fans in the stands used to hold up signs reminding the TV commentators that they were not in fact Slovakia.

At manager Matjaz Kek’s pre-match press conference here at the Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium, a member of the country’s media had to remind Fifa of the same thing after several fairly low-key errors were made by the organisers.

A draw or better against England here this evening, however, and neither the country’s supporters nor its press are likely to have to worry about that mistake being made again anytime soon.

In each of their only two previous appearances on a major stage, the Slovenians have finished last in their group at this stage of the competition, but after a win and a draw during the last 10 days, Kek’s side find themselves two points clear of England ahead of tonight’s game.

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Amazingly, a solitary point here will put them through while Fabio Capello and his side need to win if they are to avoid an early flight home.

As is customary in these situations, the Italian attempted to portray the certainty of his side’s situation, unpromising though it might be, as a good thing although maybe, just maybe, on this occasion he is right.

Though their performances have been poor, the fact remains the English are clearly, man for man, better than any of their three rivals in this, one of the less taxing of the first-round groups, and now that they have run out of room for manoeuvre and have to focus on winning at all costs, it might prove the making of them.

It’s not much of a case to make for them and Capello’s likely team selection does not inspire confidence in their chances either, but Slovenia’s display late on against the USA suggested there will be opportunities for the likes of Wayne Rooney, Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard to make Samir Handanovic work a little harder in goal than Algeria’s Rais Bolhi was obliged to in Cape Town on Friday night.

Rooney is expected to be partnered up front this time by Jermain Defoe with James Milner probably returning to the starting line-up in place of Aaron Lennon on the right-hand side of midfield, and Matthew Upson the latest centre back to get a run out alongside the apparently mutinous John Terry.

If, as anticipated, those prove to be the changes he makes to his line-up then it means Capello will have started 16 of his 23 players in the group stage. It’s a situation which does little to suggest that a team he has spent two and a half years developing will continue to evolve during the knockout stages in the event they do win and progress tonight.

Another piece of weak reasoning with just a hint of truth to it is the idea Rooney is due a big game. Based on his first two showings, of course, it can only get better for the Manchester United striker, but it’s not encouraging from an English perspective that Capello seems to have been reduced to hoping it’s a case of third time lucky for his star forward.

Once again yesterday he hinted that the player’s apparent loss of form is down to pressure but it seems a little far fetched a player who was thrust centre stage at such a high level from such an early age could be overawed by group stage games at a tournament the English insist they came here expecting to win.

Whatever the real reason, the English may well struggle to break down the Slovenians if the 24-year-old does not suddenly pull something a little more memorable than his performances against the USA and Algeria out of the bag and Defoe, when it comes down to it, looks more like someone who would benefit from an in-form Rooney than a player who might coax an out-of-sorts one back to his brilliant best.

Kek, meanwhile, insists that he sees no reason to deviate from a fairly open approach that has yielded three goals and four points to date.

It has brought his Slovenia side to the brink of qualification for the knockout stages although the observation by attacking midfielder Valter Birsa, scorer of a fine goal against the United States last week, that he and his team-mates must “stifle England in the way their previous opponents did and be patient” might be a little more revealing of the team’s true intentions.

If the English have been feeling the pressure up until this point then an hour in tonight with the score still deadlocked, they should just about be at breaking point.

As Kek, in his charmingly laid-back way, put it yesterday: “Qualification was a goal for us and now it’s a wish but nothing more that that.

“For England it is do or die so perhaps that is to our advantage.”

In reality, England do still look capable of saving themselves. Beyond that, though, the challenge is to play well enough to actually suggest that if they do progress, they might then manage something more than exit the tournament a round or two further down the road.

PROBABLE LINE-UPS

ENGLAND:James; Johnson, Terry, Upson, A Cole; Milner, Barry, Lampard, Gerrard; Rooney, Defoe.

SLOVENIA:S Handanovic; Brecko, Suler, Cesar, Jokic; Birsa, Radosavljevic, Koren, Kirm; Ljubijankic, Novakovic.