RUGBY ANALYST:Munster and Leinster will qualify for the play-offs and Leinster will do so with 21 points, writes LIAM TOLAND.
NOW THAT the dust has finally settled on the criticism and counter-criticism surrounding Munster’s immediate demise, and Leinster’s appetite for battle, we can all finally embrace this weekend with the enthusiasm it deserves.
I’ll never forget walking into Stade De France for the RWC 2007 fixture between Ireland and France. Up to that point Ireland had been brutal and any sane mind would have predicated what unfolded before our eyes. But, on the way into the ground there was a genuine groundswell of optimism from the Irish.
I too have optimism. I’ve stated it in the past weeks that both Munster and Leinster will qualify for the play-offs and by my reckoning Leinster will do so with 21 points, drawn from a bonus point tomorrow and five against Edinburgh. Easy! But winning tomorrow would make it even easier.
Which of course would make it that bit more enjoyable for the fans in London. Regarding their fans, Wasps are proud of rounding up 25,000 seats of the lower bowl in Twickenham.
Leinster have proved over the years that these are paltry numbers. For those of you travelling, take time out to check the Official Leinster Supporters Guide to Waspson the Leinster website. Be warned, though, as it doesn't tell you how to beat Wasps, but it's a great guide to Twickenham.
For many seasons Leinster have been most potent from turnover ball. But especially from turned-over lineout ball. This, however requires structure.
For many years Malcolm O’Kelly has stolen that precious ball that, through pre-planning and structure, can result in a try. Wasps lineout is so weak Leinster should reap rewards. Combine that with Shane Horgan at 12 and Leinster’s attack is lethal. Horgan is the great untapped resource in the new world of ELVs. He holds the key for success tomorrow by exploiting the 10-metre gap between defences at scrum time (and lineout). At his best he pops up every few minutes, punching holes and off-loading to clever support runners.
Seán O’Brien (and Shane Jennings) must understand the nature of Horgan’s game and maximise the off-loads. He can also give direction to Leinster’s play and regenerate patterns that allow Rob Kearney, especially, to exploit the space.
The importance of control cannot be over stated. Warren Gatland’s view on James Hook highlights this – “I think with Hook you have the flair and excitement and the ability to beat players and be creative . . . with the type of game we play it is very important he controls things and is authoritative.”
Bottom line, in order for Leinster to maximise their considerable talents tomorrow they must inject a level of control on the game that will expose Wasps on their terms. That is why Isa Nacewa at 10 is so worrying where ruthless control is paramount. A fantastic player but unfortunately he’s not built for Europe.
The man Leinster’s 10 will face tomorrow, Danny Cipriani, is a superb talent but has fortunately developed a serious case of the yips.
I’m sure your average golfer would highlight the folly of changing style mid-season, especially after such an injury lay-off. But he has done just that.
Cipriani needs to be targeted, especially when clearing his lines. Some time ago the defensive line became sacrosanct. However, tomorrow is the ideal opportunity for Leinster to rethink it by sending a flying block-down specialist (O’Brien) ahead of the line.
But if O’Brien is to maximise the pressure he’ll need to angle his run from right to left. Cipriani has been blocked down several times when clearing. His positional approach has been the route to his woes. And worse, he’s trying to adjust this flaw this week especially as he didn’t have the benefit of a game last weekend – so he’ll be rusty.
There are many aspects within Leinster that irk me but they’ll have to wait. What myself and thousands like me are looking for from Leinster is two big performances the fans can be proud off. That’ll be enough and will propel them into the play-offs.
So to tonight, the big one. Last week’s defeat of Ospreys away from home was Munster’s best performance of the season. David Wallace, Tomás O’Leary and Ian Dowling were outstanding, and the former must be Lions Test material.
The maturity displayed under the circumstances of Conan Doyle’s introduction speaks volumes. I counted 12 phases of play where seven different Munster players queued up at “10” to take the pressure off Doyle. This afforded him the opportunity to settle in.
Tony McGahan’s ability to switch the style of play, adapting to the ever-changing environment last week, was very impressive. It shows a clarity of thought that fills players with confidence.
And with the Angela’s Ashes weather moving in selecting Ronan O’Gara and Paul Warwick makes perfect sense. The back-line has now several tactical kickers. However, concern still surrounds Munster’s ability to replace Rua Tipoki.
Keith Earls is special, no doubt, so tonight will be the coming of the man, where Sale’s Luke McAlister has the ability and size to free up space for Andy Tuilag and the in-form Mark Cueto to challenge wide out.
Sale require two wins (and more) to have a chance of qualifying but I wonder about their mindset. Although they are underdogs they will be dangerous.
But why have they stacked their bench with Andrew Sheridan, Brent Cockbain, Mathew Tait and Dwayne Peel?