Rugby: The pall lingers, a legacy of Ireland's shortcomings at the end of the Six Nations Championship. The perception abroad is Ireland's two participants in the Heineken European Cup quarter-finals are about to suffer in a manner similar to the national team.
Leinster and Munster have limped their ways towards the focal point of their respective seasons. Today at Lansdowne Road, a Leinster team who navigated their group unbeaten, earning the number-one seeding, face the team who crawled out of the 'pool of death', earning the eighth and final quarter-final place.
The bare statistics hide a multitude. It would be wrong to diminish Leinster's achievements en route to this point in the season but it would be equally foolish to overlook one or two shortcomings and the obvious injury handicap.
Shane Horgan has been passed fit to play, the province's and the tournament's leading try scorer (seven) having recovered from a broken thumb.
Experience, maturity, physique and basic footballing ability are qualities the towering wing provides along with a high pain threshold.
Gordon D'Arcy has been named on the bench and despite the assertions he would not be considered unless he was fully fit there has to be a question about his damaged hamstring. If he is summoned from the bench this afternoon then Leinster will most probably be in trouble, the province looking for a catalyst. A competitive stress test will quickly determine the state of the hamstring.
If D'Arcy were fit and primed then Leinster would be a different proposition but, that said, it would be churlish not to acknowledge the talent and current form of his replacement, Felipe Contepomi. The Argentinian has excelled in a variety of positions this season and his talent for creating and exploiting space should guarantee some latitude for Brian O'Driscoll.
Contepomi needs, however, to be disciplined defensively and curb his enthusiasm and penchant for slightly bending the defensive line. O'Driscoll and Denis Hickie will have been uppermost in the mind of Leicester's backs coach, Pat Howard, the Australian looking to devise a strategy to limit the pair's impact.
Howard's decision to name Sam Vesty - the club's most consistent performer behind the scrum this season - at fullback, switching Geordan Murphy to the right, wing could be remarkably prescient.
In the promising Ollie Smith and Murphy Leicester possess backs of rare quality, although the latter has been a little more fitful in reaching the dizzying heights this season.
The battle at halfback may hinge on which combination is handed the better platform. Leicester's Harry Ellis is a combative, strong, elusive presence at scrumhalf - if sometimes given to bouts of indiscipline. Andy Goode kicks like a mule - his late missed penalty against Leeds last weekend aside - and boasts an excellent strike-rate.
Leinster's Guy Easterby offers a strong physical presence while David Holwell has been the province's best player this season. The New Zealander's form has been superb and that extends to all areas of his game, from place-kicking to play-making. The suspicion is that he'll need to hit all those marks today.
Enough of the preamble: forwards win matches, backs decide by how much.
Leicester are perceived as enjoying a significant advantage in this aspect of the contest. Led by Martin Johnson, they can muster a decent lineout, a truly formidable scrum with Graham Rowntree and Julian White as the twin buttresses, and a backrow in Lewis Moody, Martin Corry and Neil Back that boasts athleticism, power and experience.
The team are celebrated for their hard edge up front and the uncompromising squeeze they apply to subjugate opposition packs. The absence of Ben Kay is offset by the ability of the promising Louis Deacon as Johnson's partner.
Leinster's eight, in contrast, have been the butt of criticism every time the team have misfired, most notably in the pool match against Bath at the Recreation Ground.
That day the lineout was a shambles and it was the backs who rescued the situation. The pack were outplayed by their Bath counterparts; the province's forwards have been force fed that charge of inadequacy ever since.
It doesn't quite wash when taken in the context of the first game against Bath at Lansdowne Road, when the Leinster pack produced a towering performance. As a unit they can be maddeningly inconsistent - and that's the side they can't allow to prevail today.
Coach Declan Kidney has taken a bit of a punt on Ciarán Potts and Keith Gleeson as his flankers with Eric Miller at number eight.
Gleeson is just back from injury and, in the limited time since, hasn't produced a performance that would make his omission an obvious error, while Jennings has been excellent for most of Leinster's European campaign.
Victor Costello has a proven track record so Potts's elevation can be seen as "a calculated risk". There's no doubt the young flanker's got ability.
Kidney has named eight replacements - D'Arcy definitely starts on the bench - and will make a decision just prior to kick-off to go five/two or four/three in terms of forwards/backs.
Leicester, along with Biarritz, have produced some of the best rugby of the competition in beating Wasps. They boast experience, maturity, a fine pack, good backs and a decent place-kicker.
Leinster have been patched up and sent out shrouded in doubt and in some eyes offering all the pedigree of a mongrel. Sounds about right for the underdog.
Everything points to a Leicester win but if Leinster play to their potential, allowing the crowd to become a factor, then they are good enough.
No excuses. No mitigation. Time to deliver.
PREVIOUS MEETINGS (HC 1996) Leinster 10 Leicester 27; (HC 1997) Leinster 16 Leicester 9; (HC 1997) Leicester 47 Leinster 22; (HC 1999) Leinster 27 Leicester 20; (HC 2000) Leicester 10 Leinster 32; (HC 2002): Leicester 29 Leinster 18.
EUROPEAN CUP FORMGUIDE (2004-2005): Leinster - bt Benetton Treviso (a) 25-9; bt Bath (h) 30-11; bt Bourgoin (h) 92-17; bt Bourgoin (a) 26-23; bt Bath (a) 27-23; bt Benetton Treviso (h) 57-17. Leicester - bt Calvisano (h) 37-6; lost to Biarritz (a) 23-8; bt Wasps (a) 37-31; bt Wasps (h) 35-27; lost to Biarritz (h) 21-17; bt Calvisano (a) 62-10.
LEADING TRY SCORERS: Leinster - Shane Horgan 7. Leicester - Harry Ellis 5.
LEADING POINTS SCORERS: Leinster - David Holwell 96. Leicester - Andy Goode 81.
ODDS (Paddy Power): 11/10 Leinster, 18/1 Draw, 8/11 Leicester. Handicap odds (= Leinster +2pts) 10/11 Leinster, 16/1 Draw, 10/11 Leicester.
VERDICT: Leinster to win.
