A year on the Wear:No game today. It's only the fourth round of the FA Cup but Sunderland are out already. Wigan Athletic won 3-0 at the Stadium of Light three weeks ago in what must be Roy Keane's lowest moment as a manager. He said he was "ashamed" that day. He and the men who look at the bottom line cannot have been too impressed when they saw the fourth-round draw either: Wigan at home to Chelsea. The Stadium of Light might have sold out for that. It would have been televised, too, bringing in further revenue. All in all, not good.
But, there is a but.
If, on Tuesday night, Sunderland win at home against Birmingham City then the blessing-in- disguise merchants will be arguing that losing to Wigan helped beat Birmingham. It will be said that otherwise Sunderland would have been tired post-Chelsea, giving Birmingham an advantage because they are also free this weekend. They lost at Huddersfield in the cup.
After Sunderland's 2-0 defeat at Tottenham last Saturday, punters were immediately talking up the Birmingham game as another must-win. That's what happens when you cannot win away, you pile the pressure on yourselves at home.
Recently that has been shouldered; the 3-1 win over Bolton may have been tediously anxious but the 2-0 victory against Portsmouth was arguably Sunderland's performance of the season. But Birmingham's importance has not been reduced by those wins. Next Saturday it is Liverpool away, so Tuesday is assuming significance by the hour.
With Middlesbrough hosting Wigan the same night and Fulham going to Bolton, six of the seven teams above Derby are facing each other. Excluding Fulham, the other five are separated by two points. It is the relegation zone's very own Super Tuesday. Or not so super.
A home win and Sunderland might not "leap" out of the relegation zone but they would move above Birmingham.
Middlesbrough do have a cup-tie today, but Gareth Southgate said on Thursday: "We realise the significance of Wigan. We can put five points between ourselves and them."
Just in case that does not happen, Southgate sought pre-defeat consolation by adding: "But, if we lose, there will not be despondency. We won't suddenly be 10 points adrift."
Tuesday can be about distance as well as points, and then there is morale. Sunderland's following home game is against Wigan and there is a wrong to be righted there. After that, though, of the clubs in Keane's mini-league, only Boro will have to visit the Stadium of Light and that is at the end of April. Wearsiders would like a bit of comfort by then.
But unless Sunderland start winning away, there will be none. Two points taken from a possible 36 on the road is a wretched return. Even in the humiliation, 15-point season under Mick McCarthy, Sunderland won two away games - at Boro and West Brom. No team that has survived in the past five Premier League seasons has done so without gaining at least one win on the road.
Last season Wigan won five away from home and still only stayed up by goal difference of one from Sheffield United, where Wigan won on the final day. Fulham won once away last season but the three points made the difference, kept them up.
As of now, Fulham and Sunderland have Derby, Bolton and Reading for company in their failure to win away, but, as Keane stares at the table, which he says he does in bed, he will notice that Birmingham have managed it twice.
Tuesday is nothing like a formality and if it were to go wrong then much fresh pressure will come on the away form.
There is no mistaking the jangling atmosphere locally. "I've never been relegated and I don't really want it on my CV," Dwight Yorke told the Sunderland Echo yesterday.
Searching for some hope, there is a March trip to Derby and an April journey to Fulham. On the season's penultimate day, Sunderland travel to Bolton. Keane has said a few times that he expects Sunderland to be stronger in its second half. Given that after 19 games they had 14 points, that is a minimum requirement. But the recent victories over Bolton and Portsmouth are a good start. A third against Birmingham and Sunderland will have doubled their three wins from the season's first half within five games of the second.
A look at the fixtures will have swayed Keane's opinion. The first half featured Manchester United twice, Arsenal and Chelsea away, and memorably - perhaps unforgettably - Everton. It was harder.
Sunderland's players and manager also have the evidence of last January to spur them. Nyron Nosworthy pointed out that the signing of Jonny Evans and Danny Simpson then was pivotal to the upward turn, and Evans has now been joined by United's Phil Bardsley. The division may not be quaking at this, but if it stops Sunderland's defence doing so then they have a chance.
A total of 38 points were needed last season to finish fourth-bottom. From Fulham in 19th place to Middlesbrough in 13th, supporters, players and managers are now reading the fixture list manically because 38 may be required again.
Getting there is the problem. Yorke spoke for all concerned when he said: "We have got 15 games to do it and time is running out."
