INTERNATIONAL MATCH: TODAY'S DRAW for the 2011 World Cup could easily put the tin lid on England's most dispiriting autumn series of the modern era.
Much can change in three years but it would sum up the Victor Meldrew-ish sense of fatalism around the English game if Martin Johnson's side received the shortest available straw, namely a pool-round encounter with the All Blacks. After three weekends of low blows it would represent one last painful punch to the collective solar plexus.
Maybe it would be best if the worst-case scenario does unfold. Not only would it guarantee a prime money-spinning fixture for the cash-strapped Kiwi tournament organisers but it would serve to concentrate the minds of those at Twickenham inclined to treat this year's wounding triple-whammy as just one of those things. A negative try-count of 10-1, an aggregate scoreline of 102-26 and a chasm in terms of quality implies a serious problem. Just because England displayed more heart and soul here, on a cold, dank Saturday, does not mean they have turned a corner.
Few would back this England team to score a try in Cardiff and Dublin in the forthcoming Six Nations, let alone beat the Welsh and Irish. Even their next home game, against Italy on February 7th, could prove tricky if the Azzurri turn up with a kicker. Johnson is permitted five changes to his elite squad in the new year but he needs to take a fresh guard in most areas. Wales's urgency against Australia on Saturday highlighted the decline. England are now sixth in the IRB rankings.
None of this should detract from the efforts of New Zealand, who secured a tour grand slam and the new Hillary Shield for matches between these two countries with customary patience and efficiency. It is an underrated achievement to have lost a raft of Test players to European clubs and still waltz home without conceding a try in four internationals. Thirteen wins in 15 Tests in 2008 is a defiant response to World Cup failure and Graham Henry, Steve Hansen and Wayne Smith deserve much praise.
As Johnson conceded, a combative attitude should be the absolute minimum requirement and England's second-half efforts - one penalty in 120 minutes against the Tri-Nations visitors - does not say much for the management's half-time pep-talks or the players' staying power.
What happens next depends whether England are adjudged a potentially good team playing poorly or a mediocre bunch in dire need of an extreme makeover. This latest defeat was particularly chastening for Toby Flood, who was unable to make an impression at outhalf, and notable less for two smart tries from Mils Muliaina than for the yellow cards which were shown to four England players. "Are you trying to kill yourselves here or what?" asked Irish referee Alain Rolland, as England's penalty count rose steadily. If New Zealand had not been visibly weary or Dan Carter not missed five kicks at goal, the visitors might well have exceeded the 42-6 Springbok scoreline.
The All Blacks were in no doubt Wales and Scotland had posed them more problems, although Henry did his best to be encouraging as Johnson attempts to pick up the pieces. "It's just going to take time. It is a big ask . . . others have tried and failed but he might be the exception," he said. "I still think it's got a lot to do with having so many foreigners in the Premiership . . . A lot are in decision-making positions."
Henry also thinks Johnson's strength of character will soon percolate through to his squad. "Clive Woodward didn't have the success in his early days he had later and Martin's going through that same situation at the moment. He's just got to pick the right people now."
• Guardian Service
ENGLAND: Armitage; Sackey, Noon, Flutey, Monye; Flood, Care; Payne, Mears, Vickery, Borthwick, Kennedy, Haskell, Lipman, Easter. Replacements: Hipkiss for Sackey (73 mins), Cipriani for Noon (75 mins), Ellis for Care (60 mins), Hartley for Mears (67 mins), Stevens for Vickery (53 mins), Rees for Lipman (58 mins), Croft for Easter (67 mins). Sin Bin: Mears (24 mins), Haskell (32 mins), Flood (43 mins), Rees (76 mins).
NEW ZEALAND: Muliaina; Rokocoko, Smith, Nonu, Sivivatu; Carter, Cowan; Woodcock, Mealamu, Tialata, Thorn, Williams, Kaino, McCaw, So'oialo. Replacements: Toeava for Smith (69 mins), Weepu for Cowan (70 mins), Afoa for Tialata (56 mins), Reid for Kaino (56 mins).
Referee: Alain Rollands(Ireland).
