All-Ireland Final preview: Tomorrow's Bank of Ireland All-Ireland football final is just about the last thing that Kerry manager Páidí Ó Sé would have wanted. For all the obvious favouritism and hot form that his team have shown in the past two months, he would have preferred Dublin to be providing the opposition.
The oul' Dubs. Then there could be spieling and lots of guff about the deadly rivalry between the counties. Then there could be massive media focus on Dublin, rather than Kerry, and the match mightn't come so loaded with trip-switches and loose wires.
Instead Armagh lurk in the shadows. Their happy-clappy build-up to the final, replete with ancient mariners who once sailed this way and sheep died in the wool with the county's luminous orange colours, is to be expected of a county that hasn't done this for a quarter of a century.
But as the public in Armagh celebrate, in a sense oblivious to the outcome, Ó Sé knows that the Ulster champions come with far grimmer and more precise intentions. Just two years ago the counties met and it took two-and- a-half epic contests to separate them. On a couple of occasions Kerry must have thought that they were gone.
It may be that Kerry are an improved team since 2000 but Armagh almost certainly are. Joe Kernan made his name as a manager with Crossmaglen Rangers in the rapids of the All-Ireland club championships. Five-and-a-half years ago on his first venture at that level he led Cross out against All-Ireland champions Laune Rangers.
Despite the additional experience and notable talent, the Kerry side couldn't cope with the constant and exuberant competitiveness. Crossmaglen never let them out of their sights and made sure - as usual - to be a point ahead when the final whistle went. Whatever happens tomorrow, it's hard to see Armagh panicking or getting beaten easily.
Matches often swing on little things, many of them unforeseen, but it's safe to predict that centrefield will have a major impact on this weekend's All-Ireland. This is because so much depends on how much good-quality ball Kerry's corner forwards Colm Cooper and Michael Russell receive during the match.
The debate about centrefield isn't one of these largely ritual items. It can define who wins the match. To date, Darragh Ó Sé has been the best centrefielder in the championship. Since he took off - literally - against Cork three months back, his form as both a fielder and distributor of the ball have been hugely impressive.
His team will rely on their captain to feed live ammunition into the forwards and hope that Cooper and Russell can do their best after that.
Now here's the things we have to assume to give Armagh a chance: i) that Kerry won't start like men possessed as they did against Galway and Cork; ii) that Paul McGrane and John Toal will pull down enough ball to give themselves a chance at centrefield; iii) that Armagh perform well on the half-lines, with Kieran McGeeney and John McEntee getting stuck in around the middle; and, iv) that Diarmaid Marsden rediscovers his best attacking game, with Oisín McConville pushing up a bit more and so taking the heat off the excellent Steven McDonnell and the promising Ronan Clarke.
Comparing the teams with the selections from two years ago is probably futile, but the perception is that Kerry are better and maybe Armagh aren't as good. Certainly as a full-forward threat, Kerry look more dangerous. The John Crowley of 2000 wasn't as menacing as last year's model and this year he doesn't appear to be near the form that made him Footballer of the Year material going into the semi-final against Meath 13 months ago. This should temper the trust to be placed in Kerry's bench, should the going get tough. Crowley isn't getting his place for a reason this year.
Cooper and Russell have been incomparable strike forwards this campaign, and, between them, Dara Ó Cinnéide has been having an exceptional year, creating space with his intelligent, deep runs to open up lateral tracks for his corner men. Look at all the scores kicked by Cooper and Russell while drifting across the field towards the opposite corner.
Kerry's problem will probably be the half lines. Two years ago the half forwards could boast a fully tuned-in Liam Hassett, then having his best championship, Aodán MacGearailt, who scored freely, and Noel Kennelly, who also picked off the odd point. Now Hassett is on the wing, whereas two newcomers to this stage, Eoin Brosnan and Seán O'Sullivan, will be relied on to keep the scoreboard flickering.
It may be that the more experienced Hassett will move onto the 40 to confront Kieran McGeeney, as he did in 2000. If not, will Brosnan, for all his athleticism, pace and developed strength, really fancy himself against the Armagh captain even if McGeeney is lying deep and offering a channel of attack?
Kerry's half backs have the wherewithal to mount a solid counter-attacking platform. There is speed and power in the sector. For anyone who saw him playing All-Ireland club with Laune, the feeling is JJ Sheehan has been somewhat maligned by the reservations raised over him. Nonetheless, the unit hasn't so far faced half-forwards as aggressive as their markers tomorrow.
Neither full-back line is proof against upset, but Kerry's looks less likely to leak drastically.
For all their grim resolution and the cunning of manager Kernan, Armagh are up against it. Inasmuch as trends can be extrapolated from All-Ireland finals, one stands out. A touch of class in the forwards is a better guarantee of winning than all-round hardiness and resilience.
Darragh Ó Sé won't have to win every ball, nor perfectly lay off every one that he does. Justin and Enda McNulty will man the full-back line for Armagh, and Ó Cinnéide will probably have Francie Bellew as a travelling companion. They can scrap and resist to the last ounce of their puff, but for every time they slip they will be punished by Cooper and Russell and that will be the difference at the end of the day.
