The big surprise here is that Maurice Fitgerald is still out of Kerry's starting line-up. The word is that the toe injury suffered in the drawn match has been slow to heal so it has to be seen as a major loss to the team.

He certainly turned the game the last day and proved the key man for Kerry in the end. The fact that he is named among the substitutes presumably means that he will appear at some stage but exactly when remains to be seen. Only Paidi O Se and the selectors know the full extent of his fitness concerns but I do expect he will make an appearance at some stage, maybe even sooner than he did the last day.

Bringing in Denis O'Dwyer to centre forward is no great surprise. He has the experience of the 1997 campaign and he should add some weight to the attack. The big concerns for Kerry in the drawn game were over certain areas of the defence and the performance of the half-forward line, all of the members of which ended up being substituted during the game.

It's true that Liam Hassett didn't play well the last day but he has had some super games for Kerry this year and if his hamstring injury does improve I expect him to make an appearance at some stage. Killian Burns was a bit unlucky to lose his place at corner back but again he was substituted the last day. It was probably a close call to give Mike Hassett the spot but he too is a high-calibre player and the final trials last weekend may also have helped decide his return.

A lot was said about the clash of styles the last day and Armagh did find it difficult to cope with Kerry's quick movement of the ball in the opening minutes. I think Brian Canavan and Brian McAlinden will have been hammering it home this week that they can't allow Kerry to get a similar start. But having said that, it's rare that replays take the same route as the original game and it will interesting to see who gets the better start this afternoon.

Of course, Armagh also took over for long periods the last day and there was this strange contrast in fortunes, with times of total dominance by one side or the other. Usually you have teams going through a bad patch tagging on a point or two, but Kerry ended up going long periods without taking anything, especially in the first half.

Diarmuid Marsden did play an important role in setting up the goals when he came on the last day but he didn't exactly set the place on fire. The fact that he is starting may not make a huge difference anyway, because the last day the likes of Barry O'Hagan and Cathal O'Rourke proved to be more than adequate threats to Kerry.

To me, Armagh's superb half backs were the main reason that they were able to draw the match. The Kerry forward machine definitely floundered on this line and it also proved a major inspiration in the final stages. If they are to be successful here, then the likes of Kieran McGeeney and Andrew McCann will have to repeat that dominance.

But they will also need improved performances from John McEntee at midfield and Oisin McConville at corner forward. McConville was off the boil the last day and I have no doubt that he is a quality player, yet there is no way he can be satisfied with his last two semi-final displays. To be honest, I won't be surprised if he turns it on this afternoon.

Most of the statistics that came out of the drawn game suggest that Armagh are capable of beating Kerry here. They hit something like a dozen wides to Kerry's five, had far more possession and were also given over 30 frees to Kerry's 14 - suggesting more discipline and scoring chances.

However, I went for Kerry to win the first day and there's still enough in them to make me stay with that prediction. They have a good record in replays, but most of all I feel they have the ability to improve a lot more on the last day, especially if Fitzgerald is able to come on early in the game.

Still, Armagh will certainly make it difficult. A big worrying factor for Kerry will be the number of goal chances that Armagh created the last day. There were two scored against them and at least another two or three would have been a certainty had Seamus Moynihan not given the only really consistent performance in the Kerry defence. But that is an area they will have worked on a lot since the first day and I expect that they will be a lot tighter here.

The whole midfield area was very crowded the last day and neither side exactly dominated there. Tactically, it will be interesting to see how they deal with the situation, but I expect Armagh will continue to crowd their defence and to keep the fullback line as a group. Dara O Cinneide did cause some problems for them, as did Mike Frank Russell, but otherwise that ring of steel went largely unbroken.

Aodan Mac Gearailt is also a very capable player when he needs to be, and John Crowley will feel he was unlucky not to get a penalty the last day. Essentially then, Kerry still have that edge in scoring power, especially if Fitzgerald comes in, and if they tighten up in the defence, I expect them to sneak it.

We've already had two close semi-finals and either of these teams will be very formidable All-Ireland opponents. The mental strength of Armagh has been impressive and they have all sorts of winning qualities of their own. In many ways then, it's a battle of two winning teams and it will come down to a battle of wills and minds. In the end though, I expect Kerry to come through.