ANALYSIS: PEOPLE MAY consider the decision to close the roof for today's Heineken Cup final as a slightly whimsical aside but it will have a big bearing on the match conditions, both from an acoustic and playing perspective.
In the 2002 and 2006 finals in which Munster competed at the Millennium Stadium the roof was closed on both occasions, thus guaranteeing an incredible noise. I requested the roof be closed for the recent Six Nations matches principally because it heightens the atmosphere and also makes an issue of calls and communication out on the pitch. If a team is not familiar with these audio constraints it can prove a little unsettling. The pitch has had about nine games in the last three weeks and while it doesn't look great it's hard underneath.
The problem though with closing the roof is the condensation effect from having 75,000 people in an enclosed space. Moisture collects on the top of the pitch surface and this can lead to slippery conditions which won't suit the "steppers", like the Munster midfield axis of Lifeimi Mafi and Rua Tipoki: or at least they'll have to be conscious of the underfoot pitfalls. It'll be humid and warm and the ball will be wet and these are all considerations that have to be taken into account when looking at team patterns.
The next issue for me is referee Nigel Owen and his style of officiating. Welsh referees tend to brook no nonsense, don't like their authority or the manner in which they control the match being questioned. He's a strong personality and the teams will have to be careful how they approach any dialogue. Munster players will have more experience of his style of officiating but Toulouse will have done their homework here too.
The match itself offers a contrast in playing patterns. Munster are very accurate, very clinical in most areas and don't make many mistakes. They are a very patient team who have no qualms about spending 10 or 15 minutes trying to work an opportunity or securing field position. They don't panic if it takes a while to get a score. They're content to retain possession and when the opportunity presents itself take three or seven points with equal facility. Munster don't spurn many chances.
A great deal is made of French flair but Toulouse are definitely a genuine example of what has become a little bit of a misplaced generalisation. They can turn nothing into something in the blink of an eye. They offer pace and physique and boast a brilliant offloading game and therein lies the nub of the challenge for Munster: stopping Toulouse's offloading game. During the Six Nations match against France we (Wales) elected to double team ball carriers in midfield, going high in the tackle to stop them getting their hands free.
Most sides when they face Toulouse require all 15 players to be working hard all the time just to try to combat the French club's style whereas Toulouse seem to be able to facilitate four or five players having breathers only to then pounce in an instant. Munster will have to work harder than Toulouse while at the same time forcing the French side into a massive tackle count.
It's about making them hurt, taking them through a large number of phases and not kicking the ball away aimlessly. The Toulouse back three don't have a great kicking game so Munster must ensure the chasing line is well organised.
One area in which Munster could make inroads is to attack their opponents through the 10 channel. No one has really gone after Jean Baptiste Elissalde and I believe that could be a lucrative avenue of attack for Munster. They have to get their ball carriers, David Wallace, Denis Leamy, Alan Quinlan and Paul O'Connell, taking it up through that channel. Ronan O'Gara should also back himself to take on Elissalde physically.
In doing this they could "shorten up" the French side's defence, forcing them to maybe employ the blindside winger to defend this area. This will leave scope to attack on the short side off the next phase.
Even if Toulouse do stick their blindside wing in that slot from set-pieces it shouldn't deter Munster from working this option.
It's like a game of poker in that you attack certain areas hoping to elicit a reaction and ultimately create space in other areas. Munster have a massive incentive today in that victory would see them truly join the European elite of multiple title winners like Toulouse, Leicester Tigers and Wasps.
They have graduated from a side that was unbeatable at Thomond Park to one capable of winning in big matches on foreign fields and a win today would bury the tag of bridesmaid that accompanied many of their campaigns ahead of 2006. They are right up there with the best, the standard bearers for Celtic rugby, and the only team to consistently challenge the French and English domination of the tournament.
Munster need to win the collisions today, play on the front foot with and without the ball, and take Toulouse through lots of phases. They have to offer another 80-minute illustration of their work ethic, mental hardness and willingness to go through the pain barrier and keep grinning.
The French side will be happy for the game to slip into a stop-start mode. They'll then look to sporadically raise the tempo, get their offloading game going and try to get in behind the Munster defensive line from where they'll be lethal.
Toulouse have been vulnerable in the past in this tournament against sides whom they don't rate but that won't be the case today. They'll have that little bit of fear that can prove a huge motivational tool. They're capable of scoring 14 points in the blink of en eye but I think today in Cardiff that Munster will prevail. There are emotive issues like Declan Kidney's departure, Anthony Foley's retirement and the knowledge that a victory, given their journey to Cardiff, would represent one of the great triumphs in the tournament.
Munster's physicality and mental strength to grind out a narrow victory.