In any other country the Munster coach would be a shoo-in to succeed Eddie O'Sullivan as national coach, writes Gerry Thornley, but the situation is a bit more complex than that . . .

THE GREAT SUCCESSION stakes is the only race in town up for discussion, but they're dropping off like flies to such an extent that, inevitably and invariably, the IRFU may end up with little option but to choose the stand-out favourite.

In any other country, as we know, Declan Kidney would be a shoo-in. His achievements with PBC, Dolphin, Ireland Schools, Ireland Under-19, Ireland A and Munster speak for themselves. Just take Munster's last five campaigns in the Heineken European Cup alone, in which they have reached three finals (winning one), a semi-final (losing away to Stade Français by a point) and a quarter-final.

But his candidature is a bit more complex than that; a lot more actually. If IRFU insider information is to be believed, Kidney has at least one notable critic in the union hierarchy as well as disbelievers amongst Leinster and Ulster committee men. Frankly, this would seem like yet further compelling proof that the professional game should be run by professionals. But if it is also true that Pat Howard was sounded out last week in Australia, then seemingly there is a will in the union to look beyond Ireland and the prophet in their own land.

More pertinent should be how Kidney's appointment might be greeted amongst Leinster and Munster players. That quarter-final defeat to Llanelli last season was a low point and were he chosen then as Ireland's new head coach it might indeed have induced mixed reactions amongst the Munster players, some of whom are in their eighth season with Kidney provincially, not to mention various underage sides or his stint as Ireland assistant coach. But, having just emerged from the toughest group in the history of the European Cup, it is my understanding that Munster players would not be as badly disposed toward Kidney being the Ireland coach now.

Ironically, for a careers guidance teacher, his biggest mistakes have been in his career choices. Whatever the carrot or the stick was, he should never have agreed to become Eddie O'Sullivan's assistant coach in November 2001. Then again, as a proud Irishman, it must be difficult to turn down your country.

When O'Sullivan was granted his first four-year extension prior to the 2003 World Cup rather than join in the celebrations we asked in these pages, not unreasonably, "what will happen to Kidney?" In the event, he was predictably frozen out after the World Cup, remaining part of the ticket until the end of the 2002-03 season because, he said, he believed in seeing out his contract.

His coaching career in limbo, there were then dalliances with a desk job in the IRFU, Ulster and, more meaningfully, with the Celtic Dragons before Leinster bailed him out of his contractual commitment in Wales and brought him home. In the general negative fall-out from his return to Munster within a year it's oft been forgotten that Leinster won six from six matches in their European Cup pool that year.

Alas, he got the quarter-final against Leicester badly wrong in leaving out a Leinster legend in Victor Costello, in his farewell campaign, by picking Ciarán Potts, and restoring Keith Gleeson after his recovery from a broken leg ahead of Shane Jennings, one of Leinster's players of the season.

Jennings, like Leo Cullen, decamped to Leicester. It didn't sit well in the dressingroom either that Kidney was deciding on players' futures when he was also being interviewed for an vacancy in his native province.

Yet, while his methods may have grated with players over the years, and may still do, there's no denying his achievements. Maybe, despite some players' misgivings, he would be the best thing for them. He's a clever man as well as being a proud Irishman and would love to coach his country, and has shown an ability to re-invent himself by employing expertise around him or listen to players.

Were Kidney to become Ireland head coach, as important would be the coaches alongside and (once bitten, twice shy) the autonomy the IRFU would have to grant him. If, say, he came with Alan Gaffney as backs coach, and lured Mike Ford back as defence coach, there would already be a good feel to the ticket. With Jim Williams and Mike Brewer in their last days with Munster and Leinster, there are few indigenous forwards coaches around, but luring Jeremy Davidson back from Castres or bringing in Mike Ruddock would surely command respect amongst the players.

It is not a reason in itself, nor should it even be the main reason, but were the IRFU to choose Kidney as head coach the ensuring ripple effect would give the Irish coaching pyramid some badly needed solidity. Michael Bradley, who has coached at every level in Ireland and has viable credential of his own, could be moved to Munster, thereby giving him the European Cup experience he is said to lack but also to see how he would do with a more talented, better financed squad. Eric Elwood could then be promoted to head coach in Connacht and/or a way could be found for promoting Brian Walsh on to one of the provincial, professional coaching tickets.

The laid-back "Squeaks", though it has come as a surprise to many who knew him as a player, has shown himself to be a very clever and highly regarded coach who has also come through the IRFU's coaching pathway. Constitution have consistently played the best brand of rugby in the AIL and he is regarded as the brightest coaching jewel in the club game, but he is now in his fifth year at Con.

Even if Munster weren't inclined toward their former scrumhalf - they could conceivably opt for Walsh themselves - there would, at last, be some significant movement amongst Ireland's cadre of coaches. If an "outsider" or overseas coach is brought in, then everybody from Kidney through Bradley and Elwood down to Walsh remains in situ. Where are they to go?

Perhaps we should bear in mind one last thing. Kidney, along with Niall O'Donovan, was very much an after-thought as the IRFU's choice to be Munster head coach just before the start of the 1997-98 season. His accession to the throne only came after John Bevan and Andy Leslie walked away from the job after each had been revealed as the union's choice. Does anybody seriously think Bevan or Leslie would have done a remotely comparable job?

A prophet in his own province back then, he may also be a prophet in his own land, but like then, maybe not for much longer.