Kilkenny forwards can Tipp the balance

MOSTLY HURLING : There’s not a lot between the two sides but Tipp may find it hard to contain the effervescent forwards of Kilkenny…

MOSTLY HURLING: There's not a lot between the two sides but Tipp may find it hard to contain the effervescent forwards of Kilkenny

THIS IS the final we’ve all waited for between the greatest team of our generation, Kilkenny, and Tipperary, a team in the ascendancy with a host of individually talented and extremely skilful, young, and not so young, players.

Kilkenny deserve huge respect for bringing hurling to this new height. Ned Quinn and his many colleagues, who have devised a set-up which ensures that the majority of the youth of their county are coached to the highest standards with the obvious result that a steady flow of top-quality hurlers are making it on to the intercounty stage, cannot be commended highly enough.

Manager Brian Cody and his various backroom teams over the decade have done the rest. There were obituaries being written for his team after the defeat to Cork in the 2004 final. Further evidence of their demise was to be seen after Galway dispatched them out of the championship the following year.

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As we all now know they haven’t been beaten since. Not alone that, but they have produced performances of such a consistently high standard that, whether they complete the four-in-a-row or not, they have to be considered, arguably of course, one of the best teams ever.

Tipperary, on the other hand, have been showing glimpses over the past two seasons they might be approaching the high standard set by the champions. There can be little doubt about their skill, speed or stamina. Kilkenny might hold the upper hand, though, in terms of strength and aggression. This Tipperary team overcame a big psychological barrier in the manner in which they demolished Limerick and continued playing until the end of the game. This, in my opinion, was the element that they were missing up to this year’s semi-final.

The league final performance showed that they are a match for the champions in most areas, but they didn’t close out that game when they had the chance to.

The performance of the Cork footballers against Tyrone recently and Kerry’s performance against the Dubs should serve as a reminder that the team who wants it most certainly has a greater chance of winning. Some days, as we know, the gods conspire no matter how much a team wants it more, but the hunger that players often refer is so important and is often the deciding factor, especially when the teams are fairly evenly matched in terms of ability.

So are these teams fairly evenly matched?

Both goalkeepers have produced some wonderful saves this year. PJ Ryan’s fantastic reflex stop against Eoin Kelly in the dying moments of the semi-final was one of the saves of the year so far. But Brendan Cummins has been in the top three almost every year of his playing career and, in my opinion, gives Tipp the advantage there.

The Tipp backs aren’t as cohesive a unit as their opposition backs, while the Kilkenny forwards can (and have) all been match winners. Liam Sheedy’s forwards served up an excellent performance in the semi-final, but are they as good as Brian Cody’s frontmen? Probably not yet. Midfield is probably the one area where the teams are fairly even.

Based on the cold analysis of player comparison, the champions are a little ahead.

But games aren’t won on paper. There are so many variables at play. There might be an early sending off. The weather might have a part to play.The underfoot condition might be a bit of a lottery as they were for last Sunday’s football game. Henry Shefflin might have an off day from the frees (well he might). Tactics might unbalance the scales. A poor call from a linesman or umpire might change the game. An over-fussy referee could lead to the game being decided on frees. The rub of the green might go Tipp’s way. And what about the “all on the day” theory?

Whatever way it plays, Tipperary have to stop Kilkenny dictating the game from the off. The last two finals were over as contests by half-time.

Indeed, the Premier’s performance in the opening quarter against Limerick left a lot to be desired. A repeat of that and this final will also be done and dusted at the short whistle.

It will be interesting to see how the teams line out. King Henry will probably be placed on who’s deemed to be the weakest of the Tipp defence. At this moment in time I would consider Brendan Maher the most untested as the semi-final was his first championship outing.

Eddie Brennan will probably start on Paul Curran in an effort to exploit Curran’s perceived lack of pace.

Tipp need to get their full-forward line into the game as quickly and as often as possible. Their half forwards won’t be a match for the Kilkenny half backs in the aerial battles, even though John O’Brien showed last time out that he is as good as the best. He needs to show it again on Sunday, though.

But the Premier full line, given enough quality ball, has the ability to score goals. Tipp will probably need to score more than two to beat the champions and they are well capable of that.

All in all, I think the Tipp forwards will get the better of the Kilkenny backs over the 70 minutes, but for me the key to the game lies with the Tipp backs limiting the effervescent Cats forwards over the course of the entire game. I’m not convinced they are capable of that.

So I think it might be a year too soon for the Tipperary men and, while I expect them to be in contention right to the end, I think the champs will be creating their latest piece of history.