RUGBY:WHILE SUFFERING in Hamiltons pub in Leenane, Co Galway, from the 31km of the Connemara Adventure Challenge last Saturday my mind wasn't exactly on the Leinster-Glasgow RaboDirect match as it unfolded. As I gave an in-depth view of Ulster pre the Munster quarter-final match, such as their right field scrum set-up that resulted in Craig Gilroy's IRUPA try of the season, I couldn't help wondering what faces Ulster tomorrow; what information was available on the TV?
Information is of no use to Ulster tomorrow. Telling Ulster they need to be more intense than they were in the semi-final or telling Paddy Jackson he’ll have to tackle is hardly intelligent.
“Intelligence” is information that has been interpreted. If Ulster are to win tomorrow then the process of collection, processing, analysis, dissemination and feedback must be thorough and completely bought into by the entire Ulster outfit.
What array of variant attacks, with sub-variants, will Jackson face and how should he defend?
Leinster, for instance, will have a variety of scrums and lineouts at their disposal, pending field position and score. When Eoin Reddan stands at the front of the lineout as a loosehead prop it frees up Seán O’Brien to move into the scrumhalf slot.
They will take the ball off the top at the tail (to tie in the Ulster backrow), with O’Brien peeling off the tail into open field while the ball is arriving into Reddan’s hands, having skirted around the tail himself.
Reddan is now on the gain line, with O’Brien primed outside him with Jackson in his sights. Being Leinster, it doesn’t end there as their blindside winger will be arriving to form a pincer movement on the Ulster 10 channel.
Secondly, they may add a secondrow around the tail, with the hooker firing over the top into his bread basket and once again another pincer movement with a secondrow bearing down on Jackson but just before contact the secondrow can pop out to O’Brien or inside to the winger or worse still, pull back to Reddan, who has a backline primed.
Confusing? Well put yourself in Jackson’s shoes and make a tackle after all that. Then put yourself in Paddy Wallace’s shoes at 12. Do you follow Jackson to buttress him; no sooner done than Leinster will react and pull the ball to Jonny Sexton and off the Leinster midfield will go, exploiting the fractions of movements Wallace has made out of his midfield defensive slot?
Leinster are primarily a set-piece team but what makes them so impressive is not their millions of sub-options but that all 15 players are so comfortable selecting which one.
Clearly they have a preference but as the doors close around 10 they attack wider and if that closes they set up and rewind. Throughout this process props and fullbacks are equally adept at reading the situation and react and counter-react accordingly.
This makes Sexton so dangerous and is highlighted when Reddan hits him flat off the lineout as he will have his blindside winger inside him and his midfield switching outside him and be comfortable enough to wait till the last safe moment before selecting his options.
Unlike with Ireland, Reddan knows that on quick ruck ball he can step quickly around the fringe and almost toss the ball over either shoulder to a powerful runner (back or forward).
The fringe players, such as for David Kearney’s try against Glasgow, create the scores. In contrast to Munster’s lack of organisation, the subsequent Leinster clear-outs were extremely focused on the blind side of each ruck to afford Reddan that opportunity to target the rewind unhindered by a fringe defence slowing the pace.
The solution for Ulster: keep the ball out of touch, and especially the middle of the pitch where Leinster love to launch their variety and like Glasgow, compete in the air and pull it down immediately because Reddan will snipe from a forward moving maul with his blindside winger hunting. That said, Leinster are nowhere near as competitive in the air as Munster are; potential advantage Ulster.
Field position is crucial to Leinster’s attack, where, with Ulster’s deep kick-offs, Leinster will build their resultant maul with just four forwards freeing up, Jamie Heaslip, in particular, to move into the traditional 10 slot, where he provides Reddan with the first layer, while the explosive, hidden runners wait behind for Heaslip to cut a pass to Sexton, who will launch the backline from inside the 22.
Ulster need to kick off on to the 10-metre or get a chasing line outside Heaslip to cut off the Leinster backline, forcing him back into traffic.
Depth is a very interesting tool Leinster employ and all 15 understand it. Whether it’s Cian Healy sprinting into position to afford Reddan an option or the vastly-improved Devin Toner sprinting on to the flat pass, testing the fringe defence, depth has been beaten into them.
Sexton is key but the next receiver outside him, such as Gordon D’Arcy, is more so. He can be either narrow or wide or flat or deep. When it is deep and narrow Leinster intend to attack wide. D’Arcy’s depth sucks Ulster’s Darren Cave into a hit but with D’Arcy’s superior skill-set added to those outside him, the ball can beat the rush defence, freeing Rob Kearney out wide.
Likewise, Sexton’s positional play is also telling. Where he’s a tad deeper it’ll target Brian O’Driscoll in the wider channels and flatter, it’ll get big runners on.
Solution: Ulster need to slow down the ruck at all costs and employ a variety of defensive methods using the intelligence gained in preparation to know when to rush and when to be more patient, and when to chop.
For years I’ve been talking about Brad Thorn. At the breakdown he’s like a grand piano with the lid down. Watch his body height (low and strong like a sprinter at the blocks) primed to divert any Ulster oncomers, such as Chris Henry. Around the park it is his right shoulder that does the damage; last week I counted 22 breakdowns hit, each time with his right shoulder in a violent engagement with the Scots. I expect the openside to gain less advantage than he did in Thomond Park because of Thorn’s right shoulder.
There are weaknesses in Leinster John Afoa may exploit, especially if he makes Cian Healy scrummage. The ever-improving Mike Ross is adding real pitch effort to his scrummaging but he doesn’t have the toes of Healy and can be flat-footed around the fringe and must be targeted. For all the brilliance of the Leinster squad the team that finished against Glasgow understandably looked disjointed, almost unsure. Ulster want to be in it at the end to exploit this potential.
The battle of the backrow and props (value on entry fee, Healy versus Afoa, beautiful) is going to be fascinating, where Shane Jennings is crucial. His defence off the tail is the best in the business, added to his protection of second-phase ball and he’s one tough compadre. Incidentally the Leinster backrow scrummage continually through 80 minutes.
Yes, Jackson can tackle but with the variety and pace of the excursion awaiting him, he will slip off tackles and if he does there is no better team to exploit that. Tomorrow could be the graveyard for reputations as Leinster can win, in countless ways. Ulster can win but in fewer ways. Information, intensity and intelligence are one thing but who will provide the X-Factor?
PS. I’m hoping for a cracker and for the best team to win. However, as my father is from Donegal (Ulster), my mother from Galway (Connacht) having been born in Munster and lived in Leinster I’ll let you guess who I want to see win.
