FOR MUNSTER, a relatively clean bill of health and clear idea of what they have to do; but for Leinster a cloudy week of medical and disciplinary bulletins will lead to a taut conclusion when their Heineken Cup qualification hopes hinge on their game against Edinburgh at the RDS next Sunday lunchtime.
Munster, with a little help from Ulster’s win over Harlequins on Saturday, lie fourth in the rankings among pool leaders and therefore know a bonus-point win in Montauban next Saturday would guarantee them a lucrative and highly advantageous home quarter-final. A win of any hue, coupled with Leicester beating the Ospreys or Bath beating Toulouse, could also suffice.
Leinster also know a bonus-point win at home to Edinburgh will ensure they top Pool Two and earn a place in the quarter-final. In effect, they must at least match Wasps’ result to ensure qualification. Wasps kick off away to Castres at the same time, and coach Michael Cheika accepts the English champions will probably accrue five points themselves.
“If we want to be sure of ourselves we need a bonus point next week,” he admitted.
However, their hopes of a home quarter-final are remote as they have slipped to sixth in the rankings among pool leaders and would therefore require a bonus-point win and an unlikely sequence of results to go their way.
The Irish sides lie fourth and sixth in the rankings, and were they to finish third and sixth, or fourth and fifth, they would meet at Thomond Park in the quarter-finals in April, a week after meeting at the same venue in the Magners League.
A volatile and eventful weekend’s action was completed yesterday by Cardiff’s 16-12 win over Gloucester at Kingsholm. This left Dai Young’s Blues as the only unbeaten team in the competition, and was all the more remarkable because lock Tom James was sent off in the 28th minute by Ireland’s Alan Lewis for head-butting Olivier Azam and they trailed 12-6 in the second half.
Cardiff’s win also constituted a sixth victory out of nine for Magners League sides against English or French opposition, and with Calvisano at home next week the Blues will assuredly be the top-ranked side in the quarter-finals.
They join Munster and Harlequins as qualifiers, the latter’s place having been secured despite Saturday’s 21-11 defeat to an inspired Ulster by Stade Francais’ 31-17 loss to the Scarlets yesterday.
The Parisians’ effectively became the sixth French side to be knocked out of the competition (though Perpignan and Clermont retain slim mathematical hopes), with only Stade Toulousain still standing.
But even the three-time champions and tournament favourites up until Saturday are wobbling after their stunning, 33-26 defeat at home to Glasgow on Saturday ended a 15-match unbeaten run.
Guy Noves’ team must now beat Bath at the Rec in the Pool Five decider on Sunday afternoon. As that game is the last to kick-off next weekend, several teams are likely to be hanging on that result, both with a view to the second-best runners-up slot and the fourth-placed ranking for a home quarter-final.
If the Ospreys lose, then that raises the possibility of both Leinster and Wasps coming through from Pool Two if they win their games. Admittedly, Leinster and Wasps will have the advantage of contesting the penultimate round of pool matches – with the Bath-Toulouse Pool Five decider to follow – and therefore ought to have a pretty good idea as to whether 20 or 21 points will suffice to earn a home quarter-final or one of the two best-placed runners-up slots.
Against that, there must be a cloud hanging over Leinster’s entire starting tight five of last Saturday this week, given the possibility of a citing and a suspension for Malcolm O’Kelly, while the other four went off injured.
Following Saturday’s bruising battle in Twickenham, Leo Cullen looks extremely doubtful after suffering “a new injury” to the same left shoulder that had required an operation and sidelined him for much of the season. With CJ van der Linde and Stanley Wright suffering recurrences of the foot and neck injuries which made them doubtful for Saturday’s defeat, Leinster could also have a propping crisis which may well see Ollie le Roux starting his first game since his retirement over eight months ago.
“He (le Roux) is around till the end of this month anyway,” said Cheika. “We’ll have to see how Stan comes up, I don’t know about CJ. There could be an issue there, but we’ve still got Ronnie McCormack, who came over with us today.”
And, as the Leinster coach observed: “Edinburgh have a good scrum, it’s improved a lot this season.”
Leinster supporters will have a justifiable sense of unease about next weekend. Given the history between the teams, Edinburgh will want to atone for two hammerings this season and, as their handsome win over Castres last Friday highlighted, Andy Robinson’s team will not be of a mind to roll over and have their bellies tickled.
“Not at all, no no,” agreed Cheika. “That’s not how we want it. We’ve got to go and earn it. We’ve earned points this year, we didn’t last year. And that cost us, even though we got wins. We’ve earned some away points this year as well. Now we have to go home and earn our win this week.”
Wasps coach Ian McGeechan echoed Cheika’s view that they may well need five points to qualify, on the basis that their rivals will do so, but could afford to go all out for five points from the outset.
“If you look at it, it’s more realistic to say five points obviously gives us the best chance to win the group. But I’d hate to go for five points and get none, because I think you have to look right across the pools. Unfortunately some of the pools do allow you to get five points slightly easier. We just have to look across the whole spread of them now to see how affected we are.”
Wasps captain Phil Vickery said: “I wouldn’t be surprised if Edinburgh beat Leinster. I think Edinburgh are a very good team, and if they (Leinster) don’t play well they are going to be in for a tough game.”
