Rugby/ Agen v Leinster( Stade Armandie, 3.30 On TV: Sky Sports 2):Four teams remain viable contenders at the half-way point in Pool Two of the Heineken European Cup, but the winners of the summit return meeting between Leinster and Agen in Stade Armandie this afternoon will assuredly be in the driving seat.
Their irritating defeat in Edinburgh having left them with little room for manoeuvre, this then is another moment of truth for the mercurial ones.
The normal means of carving out tough away wins in this competition, all the more so in France and when viewing Munster as something of a template, is generally to have solid setpieces, and whatever else, a proven goalkicker.
Leinster, on the face of it, have neither, being seriously underpowered against one of the best scrummaging units in France and lacking a goal-kicker. But then again, the last thing anyone could ever accuse Leinster of is being normal.
Unsurprisingly, Cheika has gone with an unchanged side, which means retaining faith in recent addition Stanley Wright at tighthead, while keeping Reggie Corrigan in reserve, and persevering with Christian Warner at outhalf, with either Gordon D'Arcy or Girvan Dempsey to assume the goal-kicking in the absence of the talismanic and prolific Felipe Contepomi.
The one nod to the latter problem is the promotion of Andy Dunne to the bench in place of Kieran Lewis.
As is the way of modern travel, a two-hour flight was merely part of a 10-hour trek, courtesy of a late take-off and a long wait by the carousel in Toulouse airport to collect luggage before the players were transferred to Agen, roughly 100 kilometres away, on the home team's own luxurious coach.
There they had a late captain's run under lights in the Stade Armandie, which is adjacent to their hotel on the outskirts of Agen. The weather on arrival in Toulouse, circa today's kick-off time, was a long way from home, with mostly clear blue skies and temperatures of 14 degrees. Encouragingly, more of the same is forecast today, for undoubtedly Leinster would prefer a dry ball for their backline galacticos, with the added probability of less knock-ons and therefore less put-ins.
If the truth be told, Leinster played a lot like an away side when winning by 26-10 at Lansdowne Road last week. The one, slightly unnerving caveat, is that Agen have made five changes to their pack and on the whole look to have a stronger unit. South African Pieter van Niekerk comes in at loosehead while the fiery Moroccan hooker Jalil Narjissi starts ahead of Ace Tiatia.
Kirill Koulemine replaces Sorin Socol in the second row but most unnervingly of all, in tandem with Narjissi's improved throwing, Agen have recalled the 6ft 8in sometime Canadian lock Colin Yukes and Thomas Soucaze, the spark for much of their best rugby in that surprise bonus-point win in Gloucester, to improve their lineout options.
A host of famous names in French rugby have come from Agen, Abdelatif Benazzi, Philippe Sella, Daniel Dubroca and Albert Ferrasse, and through good husbandry and sponsorship, they have historically always punched way above their weight. Rugby is the sporting and, it seems, cultural lifeblood of this and so many little hotbeds of the game in the south of France.
Agen's only defeat this season at home was that misleadingly dreary 13-6 loss to Perpignan - also their only loss at the Stade Armandie in their last 14 games. They have targeted this game in a major way seemingly, with close to a 12,000 full house expected and fireworks planned beforehand. They will surely seek to engage Leinster in trench warfare again, unless they surprise us and Leinster by playing with far more width than their fairly one-dimensional and narrow approach of last week.
Leinster had to wait 36 minutes for their first throw last weekend and ultimately only had eight lineouts, of which only four were conceded reluctantly conceded by Agen in a clear strategy to deny them their more proficient setpiece platform. If repeated, this means Leinster will have to make more of the counter-attacking opportunities that might ensue. They are going to have to be daring, but no better men.
You could think of 10 reasons why one team might win it, and in turn think of ten others as to why they won't. The Leinster scrum, with another week's work and acclimatisation for Wright, could engage closer, lower and smarter, clearing out the ball quicker (it had probably better) but then again, Kees Meeuws will be that bit sharper after his long lay-off.
Leinster should have the better lineout, especially if Malcolm O'Kelly repeats his efforts of last week, but then again Agen's is liable to be better. Leinster have far more penetrative runners, and if they can get anything like 40 per cent of the ball, they should prevail. The forecast is also favourable and their defence has improved this season.
So, too, has their discipline, but then you think of how a packed home crowd might get to the officials and you remember that Tony Spreadbury made a couple of questionable late calls when Leinster lost in Bourgoin at this exact point last season. And they had Contepomi then.
The first 20 minutes will tell us much, so too the first scrum, the first lineout, the first Leinster kick at goal . . . The nature of this competition, and most of the relevant evidence, points to a narrow home win, but as they showed in Toulouse and last week, Leinster have the gamebreaking abilities in abundance to shred those theories.
AGEN: P Elhorga; M Ahotaeiloa, C Stoltz, S Mirande, R Caucaunibuca; J Miquel, N Morlaes (capt); P Van Niekerk, J Narjissi, K Meeuws, W Stolz, K Koulemine, M Lievremont, C Yukes, T Soucaze. Replacements: E Guinazu, A Tiatia, S Socol, F Culine, A Fulton, M Faaletino, A Mignardi.
LEINSTER: G Dempsey; S Horgan, B O'Driscoll (capt), G D'Arcy, D Hickie; C Warner, C Whitaker; R McCormack, B Blaney, S Wright, T Hogan, M O'Kelly, S Keogh, K Gleeson, J Heaslip. Replacements: B Jackman, R Corrigan, O Finegan, C Jowitt, G Easterby, A Dunne, L Fitzgerald.
Referee: Tony Spreadbury (England)
Leading points scorers: Agen- Jerome Miquel 25; Leinster- Felipe Contepomi 31.
Leading try scorers: Agen- six players on one. Leinster- Brian O'Driscoll 3.
Odds (courtesy of Paddy Powers):Evens Agen, 20/1 Draw, 4/5 Leinster.
Handicap odds(=Agen +1pt) 10/11 Agen, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Leinster.
Forecast: Agen to win.
