Leinster likely to prove strong enough

RABO-DIRECT PRO12 SEMI-FINAL Leinster v Glasgow: THIS MATTERS, and no mistake

RABO-DIRECT PRO12 SEMI-FINAL Leinster v Glasgow:THIS MATTERS, and no mistake. Leinster stand on the threshold of history, three games away from becoming the first club since Wasps in 2004 to complete a European Cup and domestic league double.

But last year’s league final defeat to Munster and, indeed, the loss in the decider to the Ospreys 12 months’ previously still rankle with this high-achieving group.

For sure, next week’s Heineken Cup final in Twickenham remains the priority. Accordingly, and true to type, Joe Schmidt has opted for the vast majority of his starting XV for next week’s final while keeping a few back just to ensure everyone is kept on their toes and the team is freshened up slightly.

Discretion being the better part of valour, niggling injuries to Brian O’Driscoll (knee) and Rob Kearney (back) mean they will be held back from today’s semi-final. Both should feature at Twickenham. Furthermore, Leo Cullen and Kevin McLaughlin have been confined to the bench, with Devin Toner and Shane Jennings starting, while Eoin Reddan starts ahead of Isaac Boss this week.

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Not too much can be read into Schmidt’s selections at scrumhalf and backrow (the most changeable positions currently under his watch), for it should be recalled that Shane Horgan, Reddan and McLaughlin were all promoted from the corresponding semi-final at home to Ulster last season for the Heineken Cup final against Northampton eight days later.

Besides, against the twin towers that are Al Kellock and Richie Gray, Devin Toner looks like a good pick for this particular game.

Indeed, given the lineout has perhaps been Leinster’s biggest issue of late, the slight surprise is that McLaughlin isn’t there from the start to provide another option at the tail.

It should also be noted Leinster held little back despite a fired-up Ulster challenge, winning 18-3, and aside from the aforementioned sources of motivation, there is the carrot of a home final which tournament organisers yesterday confirmed will be moved back to Sunday, May 27th (4pm) should Leinster win this semi-final due to the Republic of Ireland versus Bosnia match at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday, May 26th.

The league’s CEO John Feehan added: “It was also felt by all parties that due to the tight turn-around between the semi-finals and final, it would be better to confirm the RDS as Leinster’s home venue, rather than consider a possible switch to the Aviva Stadium, to help with the ticketing, policing, travel and administration of the final.”

Glasgow, of course, will be keen to have a say in all that, and they will also have the benefit of familiarity, having played Leinster four times already this season. Furthermore, they remain one of only two teams Leinster have failed to beat in the league this season (the Ospreys completed a league double over them), having won at the RDS last September, and drawn at Firhill in February.

They also pushed Leinster to a seven-point win there in January.

That was Leinster’s first win in Glasgow in seven attempts, although admittedly their five tries to one (38-13) Heineken Cup thumping in November is arguably the most relevant yardstick given both sides were close to full-strength.

Glasgow have made five changes to the team that beat Connacht 24-3 in their Firhill farewell last weekend. Chris Cusiter replaces Henry Pyrgos at scrum-half, Ryan Grant, Pat MacArthur, and Mike Cusack form an all-new frontrow and captain Kellock is restored to the secondrow.

“We’ve picked 23 men who we firmly believe have it in them to achieve a special result for Glasgow Warriors,” said coach Sean Lineen. “Once again, we’re expecting the intensity and pace of the game to be Test level, and that’s where the combined efforts of the starting XV and a strong bench can really come into their own. We’ve shown character, ability and tenacity to get ourselves into the semi-finals. The challenge now is to bring out those qualities in even bigger quantities to beat the best team in Europe.”

Heavily populated by an experienced officer corps, Leinster have become, if possible, even more professional under Joe Schmidt than they were under the uber demanding Michael Cheika.

Having lost once in their last 26 games, whatever thoughts any Leinster players may have had about next week’s impending Euro decider should be more than offset by the desire to state their case for a final place at Twickenham.

LEINSTER: I Nacewa; F McFadden; E OMalley, G DArcy, D Kearney; J Sexton, E Reddan; C Healy, R Strauss, M Ross, B Thorn, D Toner, S O'Brien, S Jennings, J Heaslip (capt). Replacements: S Cronin, H van der Merwe, N White, L Cullen, K McLaughlin, I Boss, I Madigan, A Conway.

GLASGOW: Stuart Hogg; F Aramburu, A Dunbar, G Morrison, DTH van der Merwe; D Weir, C Cusiter; R Grant, P MacArthur, M Cusack, R Gray, A Kellock (capt), R Harley, C Fusaro, J Barclay. Replacements: D Hall, J Welsh, M Low, T Ryder, H Pyrgos, J Beattie, R Jackson, P Murchie.

Referee: George Clancy.

Leading League points scorers(2011-12): Leinster: Isa Nacewa 120, Fergus McFadden 95, Ian Madigan 86. Glasgow: Duncan Weir 195.

Betting(Paddy Power): 1/9 Leinster, 22/1 Draw, 3/1 Glasgow. Handicap odds (Glasgow +13pts) 10/11 Leinster, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Glasgow.

Forecast: Leinster to win.

  • Over 14,000 tickets have been sold for today's semi-final and tickets are still on sale from www.leinsterrugby.ie, the Leinster Rugby Store (Donnybrook), Spar (Donnybrook) as well as Ticketmaster outlets nationwide. There will also be tickets on sale on the day on both Simmonscourt Road and Anglesea Road from 4pm.
Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley is Rugby Correspondent of The Irish Times