European Cup/Leinster v Bourgoin Lansdowne Road, 5.15: A degree of uncertainty will hang over Lansdowne Road come kick-off this evening when Leinster pick up their Heineken European Cup campaign after a month-long hiatus against a Bourgoin side who are something of an unknown quantity. Despite, and partly because of their returning internationals, Leinster are bound to be a little rusty.
What do we make of Bourgoin? Ruggedly competitive in their opening 22-12 defeat away to Bath, their coach Laurent Seigne made 11 changes in personnel, and three positional, the following week at home to Treviso.
Trailing 31-0 at the break in front of a small crowd, they were beaten 34-0, to leave them virtually out of contention already.
Rather than a miscalculation of the Italians, it appears as if Seigne (who intends to resign at the end of the season after three years) prioritised their domestic championship, the general perception being Bourgoin haven't the strength in depth to maintain challenges on two fronts.
Since then, les Berjalliens have won three out of their subsequent four top 16 games (albeit at home) to rise to second in the French championship, ahead of Toulouse on points difference and one point behind Perpignan. It's worth pointing out this has been achieved on the back of seven wins out of seven at the Stade Pierre Rajon, averaging 36.5 points per game, whereas away they've won one out of seven, against bottom club Auch, while drawing at Bayonne and Clermont Auvergne, and losing at Perpignan (29-23), Stade Francais (31-23), Toulouse (39-5) and Biarritz (31-9).
Interestingly, Seigne has retained only four of the starting line-up that scored five tries to two in beating Brive 47-27 last week and has rested leading scorer Benjamin Boyet, Pascal Peyron, Benoit Cabello, Julien Frier, ex-french centre David Venditti and captain Pierre Raschi.
Against that, Bourgoin welcome back their three French internationals, namely lock Pascal Pape, after his three stints on the bench for les Bleus, as well as flanker Julienne Bonnaire and prop Olivier Milloud, who is named among the replacements. And aside from pride in their performance, one imagines they'll be more inspired by le mythique of Lansdowne Road than they would have been in Donnybrook.
Bourgoin have never met Leinster before, although they did share home wins with Munster seven seasons ago, and did the double over Ulster two seasons later before losing to Munster twice last season, albeit by a point at home before extending Alan Gaffney's team to a very hard-earned bonus point in Thomond Park when, theoretically, they had even less to play for than tonight.
Something of a traditional French side, who first draw lines in the sand through their lineout maul and scrum, in addition to a counter-attacking game they can use their pace out wide when the mood takes them. Declan Kidney has a huge amount of respect for the Castres pack which took on Munster last night, and was thus suitably impressed when Bourgoin more than matched them up front in a 19-12 victory in October.
Comparatively free of pressure, one presumes Bourgoin will be full of vigour at the outset, and depending on how they reach, say, the half-way point, the longer they're in the game the more dangerous they'll become.
Alternatively, if Leinster (who might well have swotted better for this one over the videos) can stand toe to toe with them up front, one imagines Bourgoin might struggle with the pace out wide and finishing ability of Brian O'Driscoll, Denis Hickie and Shane Horgan.
Kidney, who won't finalise his bench until today, is understandably concerned his frontline side have not been together for the past month, just as they were starting to build some momentum. Although the November internationals would have fine-tuned their match fitness, mentally as much as physically the demands of Test rugby would have taken plenty out of the majority of their 10 returning internationals.
With that in mind, one suspects the fixtures have fallen as Leinster would have wanted. Lansdowne Road is familiar terrain and victory this evening, especially with a bonus point, would leave them very well placed atop Pool Two, all the more so if Treviso can beat Bath at home today, or at any rate deny the English team a bonus point. As it would also eliminate Bourgoin, it could in theory make next Friday's return meeting at the Stade Pierre Rajon less imposing.
Leinster's mindset has to first be about establishing a good platform up front, not giving an inch in the scrums, and using their normally excellent lineout to earn possession and territory.
They can't afford to go into the game putting the cart before the horse as a win of any hue will keep them well placed. But at some point in the evening it will be disappointing if they don't push on and, bearing in mind the desire to go to the Rec in the last round ideally with qualification already assured, earn a potentially invaluable bonus point.
TEAMS AND DETAILS
LEINSTER: G Dempsey; S Horgan, B O'Driscoll, F Contepomi, D Hickie; D Holwell, G Easterby; R Corrigan (Capt), S Byrne, E Byrne, L Cullen, M O'Kelly, E Miller, V Costello, S Jennings. Replacements: R Nebbett, G Hickie, D Blaney, B Gissing, D Dillon, C Potts, A McCullen, B O'Meara, B O'Riordan, G Brown, K Lewis, D Quinlan.
BOURGOIN: D Janin; L Soucase, G Esterhuizen, A Peclier, J-F Coux; F Gengenbacher, M Albina; J Castex, W Bonet, F Pucciariello, A Mazel, P Pape, A Driollet, M-A Ruiz, J Bonnaire. Replacements: F Montagnat, O Milloud, R Bouyoud, N Bontinck, M Bourgignon, M Forest, A Forest.
Referee: Hugh Watkins (WRU).
EC Formguide: Leinster - 25-9 v Treviso (away); 30-11 v Bath (home). Bourgoin - 12-22 v Bath (away); 0-34 v Treviso (home).
Previous meetings: None.
Leading try scorers: Leinster - Shane Horgan 2. Bourgoin - None.
Leading points scorers: Leinster _ David Holwell 22. Bourgoin _ Benjamin Boyet 12.
Betting (Paddy Powers): Handicap odds (= Bourgoin + 22pts) 10/11 Leinster, 16/1 Draw 20/1, 10/11 Bourgoin.
Verdict: Leinster to win.
Tickets available from Spar (Donnybrook, Vernon Avenue), Elvery's (Liffey Valley Retail Park, Suffolk St, Dawson St.), Centra (Cornelscourt) and Leinster Rugby Store. Cash taken at the turnstiles. Turnstiles open at 3.45 p.m.
