US OPEN: IT'S RARE, in this day and age, to go into a major with so many imponderables. For this 108th staging of the US Open, over a South Course at Torrey Pines in southern California, where a certain golfer - the greatest of his generation - has dominated so comprehensively, the assumption would be that Tiger Woods would walk to the first tee and simply set about notching up the 14th major win of his career.
But, of course, it's not as simple as that. For one, Woods - a six-time Buick Invitational champion on this very course - is playing his first competitive round in, ahem, two months. Is he sharp enough to contend with such a severe examination after such a lengthy, if enforced, sabbatical? Will his dodgy knee stand up if has to hack the ball out of kikuyu rough?
It's not about just one man, though. As ever, there's the man who has lived in Tiger's shadow for much of the past decade. There's Phil Mickelson too! And, in truth, there are 154 others.
Not all of them will even set out with thoughts of victory in their hearts; but a handful or two of them will possess such ambition, enough to ensure that Woods, especially, and Mickelson - the local hero who grew up playing this course before nip-'n'-tuck surgery was conducted on it to bring the cliff edges more into play - will have their work cut out.
No-one knows for sure just how Woods will perform, and that factor - as much as the tight, but not too tight, fairways and the different layers of rough and the poa annua greens with their humps and subtle hollows - is the greatest imponderable of all.
Jim Furyk is as unsure as the rest of us. "I think it's difficult to take the amount of time he's had off, and to come to a US Open and expect to go out there and dominate a golf tournament as he has dominated golf . . . that being said, anything he does wouldn't surprise anyone. It's just hard to take a lot of time off and be sharp. If anyone can do it, he can."
This is far more than just the Tiger and Phil show, however. Even when fit, Woods has found the US Open a tougher examination than the other majors. Sure, he has two of them - 2000 and 2002 - on his curriculum vitae, but more often than not Woods hasn't been able to always answer the questions posed. Neither, down the stretch, has Mickelson who is 0-for-17 in his attempts. The man known as "Lefty" has, to be sure, had his chances but never seen them through. Will it be a case of lucky 18?
In fact, you've got to side with Furyk on this one. Asked if he had to bet on Tiger or Phil this week, or the field, Furyk responded: "I'm a math guy . . . so I'll take the field, how's that?"
Logical, you've got to say.
However, there seem to be imponderables of another sort in determining just what players from "the field" will step up to the mark. Furyk himself has been bedevilled by problems with his putting, as has defending champion Angel Cabrera - who has given up smoking for good measure, despite his recent travails on the greens - while world number three Adam Scott is playing despite recovering from a broken finger after a car door slammed on his hand three weeks ago.
The past four champions have come from the Southern Hemisphere: Cabrera (2007), Geoff Ogilvy (2006), Michael Campbell (2005) and Retief Goosen (2004). Of those, Ogilvy - winner of the WGC-CA championship earlier this season - is the only one who hasn't hit any blip in form this season, and could be a realistic contender.
Yet, this could finally be the year for a European player to end the drought since Tony Jacklin's win in 1970. Pádraig Harrington, who ended one drought when he claimed the Claret Jug at Carnoustie last year, and Sergio Garcia, winner of The Players last month, head a strong contingent that also features Luke Donald, Justin Rose, Paul Casey, Robert Karlsson and Ian Poulter. Furyk, for his part, suggested it was "mind boggling" that no European player had won since Jacklin.
Garcia believes it is time to put things right. "I ask myself to play well in majors, to give myself chances (of winning) and to try to win as many as possible. I've had my chances, so that's one goal accomplished. Now, I've to try to get to the next level and hopefully start winning majors. That's what we work so hard for."
The irony won't be lost on Garcia that Harrington, his nemesis from Carnoustie, is probably the other man best equipped to become a European champion at the US Open. While the Dubliner doesn't posses Garcia's natural ball-striking, Harrington - if his putting is on - has the all-round game to contend on a course that, crucially "fits my eye".
The course set-up has appealed to Harrington since he got a first glimpse on Monday.
"It's a pleasing test," he affirmed, identifying the greens - rather than the customary narrow fairways at USGA setups - as possibly being the crucial element in determining the winner.
"The greens are the course's biggest protection. If you play to the middle of the green, you're going to have to putt over a hump. You're going to be uphill and then downhill. It's an interesting test, but I grew up putting on poa annua. Hopefully I can bring back some of my childhood memories on greens."
One thing Harrington doesn't envisage is any one player running away from the field. "You have to be patient, and that's why you can't predict anything going into an event like this . . . what I do know, is that if I'm there or thereabouts with nine holes to go (on Sunday), I can do it from there, I've done it before. That's what I'm looking for."
It promises to be interesting, whichever way the script finally evolves.
