Local feud captures a nation

Almost there now. Even the dogs in all the O'Connell streets know about this little affair

Almost there now. Even the dogs in all the O'Connell streets know about this little affair. A match-up like this mightn't come along once in a lifetime, never mind once in a generation. To describe it as a derby seems almost to do it a disservice, for this is the mother and father, granddad and granny of all Irish derbies.

The biggest domestic tiff since the Battle of Clontarf in 1014, it's been said. Overstretching things maybe, but how could we overhype this? In 121 clashes there's never been so much at stake between Leinster and Munster. In 128 years of all-Irish affairs, there's never been a coming together of so many outstanding players in one game, not with such a prize at stake, not with a packed Lansdowne Road, nor the millions more at home and abroad who will be agog in front of a screen somewhere.

It is therefore, as much as anything else, a showcase for Irish rugby and Irish sporting culture. Even a Sunday kick-off shouldn't prevent a sea of red and blue livening up the oul' place.

The Red Army, no less than their team, have thrown the gauntlet down to their Leinster brethren, and if the Celtic League final of four seasons ago is any guideline, then chants of "Mun-ster" and The Fields will be rivalled by "Allez Les Bleus" and Molly Malone like never before.

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The warmest day of the year so far, say the forecasters, and little do they know. Perhaps it cannot possibly live up to the sense of occasion, but it can't be anything less than compelling from first minute to last. So many intriguing head-to-heads, so many variables to factor in; and then something utterly unforeseen might be the determining factor.

Think about this one for too long and you're liable to get a headache.

Unsurprisingly, Leinster are fielding the side that thrillingly beat Toulouse, while Munster have all bar Marcus Horan of their frontliners back in harness, while opting for John Kelly at 13 and recalling Anthony Horgan to the wing, compared to the team that beat Perpignan.

If the old adage is true, and forwards win matches and backs dictate by how much, then Munster ought to win narrowly. Yet it would be trite to bill this as the Munster pack against the Leinster galacticos in the backs. For sure Ronan O'Gara will occasionally drop into the pocket, find the gaps in the back three like no one else does and leave it to the pack to pressurise Brian Blaney's throw while generating go-forward ball through their mauling and close-in drives.

Yet their game is as much about generating a high tempo with fast, furious rucking, and launching the big rumblers, Paul O'Connell and Trevor Halstead, to free their arms in the tackle and release David Wallace, Shaun Payne, John Kelly and co.

Munster have to work harder for their scores, but then no one works harder, least of all their pack when within sniffing distance of the whitewash (or defending their own).

They have yet to concede one try from a lineout maul in this season's Heineken European Cup. Of Munster's 61 tries this season, 35 (or 57 per cent) have been scored by forwards, while of Leinster's 76 tries this season, 54 (or 71 per cent) have been dotted down by their pacy, twinkletoed backs.

The Leinster pack are not merely there to serve, but that is their primary job, and this contest could revolve largely around that Blaney throw and at least securing their own ball. With Bryce Williams and Cameron Jowitt augmenting Malcolm O'Kelly, Leinster have a tall lineout that has delivered on the big occasions this season after initial teething problems.

No less than Munster sticking it up their jumpers, Leinster won't be emulating the Harlem Globetrotters. It could be a cagey start, or explosive, but they'll also look to launch Shane Horgan and co through the middle.

Leinster's back five are the same quintet that helped beat Munster in that Celtic League final with 14 men four seasons ago. Even if he's kept quiet for 79 minutes (a monstrous "if"), Brian O'Driscoll is sure to spring devastatingly to life at least once, and if not him then Horgan, Gordon D'Arcy, Denis Hickie or Girvan Dempsey. All still in their prime, they have scored between them a staggering 178 tries for Leinster. That's some strike power.

If they break through the red line, unlike Munster, they have the fire-power and pace to score from any distance, all the more so if Keith Gleeson wins them a few turnovers.

And then you factor in Felipe Contepomi. If O'Gara is one of the world's best kicking outhalves, and blessed with brilliant hands and a sound head, Contepomi is surely the best running outhalf in the world right now, and pretty nifty with his boot too. In his last 16 outings, all but the first of them at outhalf, he has scored a faintly ridiculous 13 tries.

The Munster backrow will have no option but to watch out for him, which is what generates the one-on-ones and space outside, and no one seems to have a radar for space quite like the Puma genius.

Then again he's got that apparent obsession with Declan Kidney, and that Latin temperament, which became a little rattled in the Musgrave Park meeting.

Indeed, last week's sighting of a fast-up, umbrella Munster defence maybe had Contepomi and co in mind. And can Leinster possibly stop that phenomenal ferocity of Denis Leamy, Jerry Flannery, Donncha O'Callaghan and co, not to mention Anthony Foley's force of will, or that bloke in the number five jersey? They say Superman wears Paul O'Connell pyjamas at night time.

Put it another way, Leinster wouldn't want to be defending a one-score lead on their line in the final throes of this one. Factor in the probability that it's a tight finish - all bar three of the last 16 semi-finals have been settled by a score, and the other three were all won by eight points - and undoubtedly Munster have more leaders, especially up front.

Then there's the unforeseen variables, such as an early injury to a key player. You hope that doesn't come into it - or a pivotal mistake, cruel bounce or controversial decision - or it really might be civil war for a decade or more.

But the favourable forecast is complemented by a cool-headed referee. Above all you hope a moment or two of inspiration, or even phenomenal perspiration, wins it. It truly deserves that.

OVERALL HEAD-TO-HEAD: Played 121. Leinster 77 wins, Munster 33 wins, 11 draws.

LAST FIVE MEETINGS: 31/12/05 - Leinster 35 Munster 23 (RDS); 9/10/05 - Munster 33 Leinster 9 (Musgrave Park); 1/1/05 - Munster 19 Leinster 13 (Musgrave Park); 18/9/04 - Leinster 17 Munster 15 (Donnybrook); 13/2/04 - Munster 24 Leinster 13 Musgrave Park).

ROUTES TO SEMI-FINAL

Leinster: 19-22 v Bath (h); 33-20 v Glasgow (a); 53-7 Bourgoin (h); 28-30 v Bourgoin (a); 46-22 v Glasgow (h); 35-23 v Bath (a). Q/F: 41-35 v Toulouse (a).

Munster: 13-27 v Sale (a); 42-16 v Castres (h); 24-8 v Dragons (a); 30-18 v Dragons (h); 46-9 v Castres (a); 31-9 Sale (h). Q/F: 19-10 v Perpignan (h).

LEADING TRY SCORERS

Leinster - 6  Felipe Contepomi, 4 Shane Horgan, Cameron Jowitt, Brian O'Driscoll, 3 Gordon D'Arcy, Robert Kearney.

Munster - 3 Paul O'Connell; 2 Jerry Flannery, John Kelly, Anthony Foley, Tomás O'Leary.

LEADING SCORERS

Leinster: 125 Felipe Contepomi

Munster: 82 Ronan O'Gara.

ODDS (Paddy Powers): 4/6 Leinster, 20/1 Draw, 5/4 Munster. Handicap betting (= Munster + 3pts) 10/11 Leinster, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Munster.

FORECAST: Eh, um, Mu. . Leinster. Maybe.