Gaelic Games: Seán Moran points out some of the current trends to keep an eye on as another long season prepares to get under way

The calendar year in football and hurling is an established routine. In the weeks ahead the bravest entrail readers will attempt to deduce significance from a host of secondary action in the provinces as sundry competitions, from the McKenna to Kehoe Cups, struggle into action. The wisest, however, will deduce nothing.

What we can look out for is how certain trends survive and prosper in the year ahead. One notable aspect of 2002 was the influence of managers at the highest level. When the end-of-year plaudits were being handed out last month Armagh's Joe Kernan was a worthy and credible winner of the Manager of the Year accolade.

All-Ireland winning managers tend to be a default setting for that award if nothing of international significance has happened. But last year there could be no quibbles over the achievement of landing the Sam Maguire for the first time in Armagh's history.

It remains to be seen if the attention to detail made legendary by Kernan and his backroom team inspires others. In truth, its innovation was partly exaggerated, in that other successful managers have been equally thorough and detailed in their preparations. What Armagh have done, though, is raise the bar for the under-achieving class.

Having listened to tales of those coups de theatre in the Armagh dressing-room and the D Day logistics of the spring trip to La Manga, no aspiring contenders can be unaware of the meticulous intensity required for success at the highest level.

One trend that has endured for a now historically unprecedented period is the difficulty posed by retaining an All-Ireland. This is the 10th anniversary of the last instance of senior titles being won back-to-back (Kilkenny 1992-93). Never before in GAA history has there been such a gap.

Some of the explanation for this is the levelling of standards and consequently greater competitiveness in both hurling and football. The introduction of the qualifier series in both championships has intensified that competition despite the obvious added latitude it affords defending champions.

Kilkenny hurlers are expected to pose a major threat to this age of egalitarianism. Last year Brian Cody's management feats would have won him awards in any season unmarked by Kernan's singular success. His deconstruction of one All-Ireland winning side and creation of another on the hoof was a remarkable achievement. The handling of DJ Carey's re-entry to orbit was masterfully assured and eventually, for the second time in three years, Cody has a side that's hotly favoured to retain the All-Ireland.

Reservations about their prospects centre on that very fact. Do Kilkenny look any more invincible now than they did at the beginning of 2001? They are certainly younger and their fortunes this year will be a hugely significant indicator of the sapping effects of success on hunger and ambition in the modern game.

Kilkenny also perpetuated a recent trend. By using the League to rebuild his team, Cody further restored the prestige of that competition and emulated Tipperary's 2001 double. In hurling, the competition has been used to establish momentum in the past two seasons, and it was interesting to hear Cork lamentations about how different the county's turbulent year might have been had they not lost the League final to Kilkenny by an injury-time point.

No such revival in status for the football equivalent. The 2002 NFL was won well by Tyrone, but that first national success appeared to sap their ambition. With all these health warnings surrounding the competition, what teams are going to go bald-headed for it?

Eyes will also be trained south to see how the triumphant Cork player revolution translates on to the field. The hurlers have had three very disappointing seasons, and although that leaves new manager Donal O'Grady plenty of room for improvement, the team will also be under considerable pressure to deliver significant improvement. The footballers have done better, but the disintegration of their championship bid against Kerry last August turned to dust what had been a good year.

Off the field, Rule 42 may once more be on the menu at April's congress, whereas Seán Kelly from Kerry will embark on what - in the light of the amateurism issue - has the potential to be the most critical GAA presidency in over a century.