There was a great deal that was predictable about the drawn Bank of Ireland football semi-final two weeks ago. As a result the issues which can decide this afternoon's replay haven't changed enormously. Armagh will throw a blanket over the middle of the pitch and Kerry will try to get in behind that cover and isolate their full forwards in the danger area.

Yet the draw didn't proceed entirely to script. A number of factors taken to favour Armagh never came to pass and the Ulster champions' ability to revive those assets will determine their prospects of victory.

Taking these matters first: the presumed improvement in Armagh's attack turned out to be ill founded on the day. Oisin McConville was a disappointment, taking wrong options and shooting poorly. He seems to struggle to find time and space at the top level of inter-county competition. It will be important for the team that he adjusts better to these demands this afternoon.

Stephen McDonnell was another to fall short of his advance publicity. After a lively enough start he became anonymous before being replaced by Alan O'Neill, whose strength and aerial prowess were a noticeable help. McDonnell pays the price by making way for Diarmuid Marsden.

Of equal concern to Brian Canavan and Brian McAlinden must be the inconsistent display of John McEntee. Player of the championship in Ulster, the Crossmaglen midfielder wasn't firing on all cylinders in the drawn match. Although he got on to a reasonable amount of ball, his distribution was erratic and on a number of occasions he even miskicked the ball out of play.

The Armagh management will doubtless have teased out these areas for improvement and the introduction of Marsden from the start is a good idea. Maurice Fitzgerald would similarly have made the Kerry line-up had he been fit enough to last 70 minutes. Marsden was noticeably ring-rusty after coming on for the last half-hour but that re-introduction should have helped acclimatise him, and his instincts add greatly to the potency of the attack.

Paidi O Se and his selectors make two changes. Mike Hassett replaces Killian Burns at corner back, as he did in the drawn match, and Denis Dwyer comes into attack for Liam Hassett. Dwyer made a strong impression on being introduced for the final quarter and will help the ball-winning capacity on the half-forward line.

With both sides tweaked for this afternoon and the experience of the draw under their belts, where does that leave their respective merits? There were negative aspects to each performance two weeks ago and they were in the predictable areas.

Kerry's whirlwind start left Armagh's full backs horribly exposed. Dara O Cinneide alternatively opened up Ger Reid and dragged him out to the right, leaving a high road which Kerry exploited. Enda McNulty had terrible trouble with Michael Francis Russell throughout the match, and John Crowley's penetrative running won one penalty (dubiously) and led to another being turned down (equally dubiously).

Armagh held their nerve and implemented the old reliable plan for countering lively full forwards: cut the supply lines. This required a comprehensive domination of the central area. Assisting the Ulster champions in this task was the sporadic nature of Kerry's challenge at centrefield and their inability to compete on the breaks.

It wasn't all bad news for Kerry, as Seamus Moynihan gave an exhibition of intelligent, athletic marking at full back. The panache of the team as they compiled a six-point lead in as many minutes was also breathtaking.

But if Paidi O Se's team is to improve, a considerably more sustained display in the middle sector will be necessary. There is a substantial body of evidence that suggests this won't happen. In both of Kerry's big matches this season, their centrefield has gone quiet for a lengthy period and the half lines have failed to win ball. The one thing Armagh have done in every match is pack the middle, take a good share from centrefield and dominate the breaks.

There are two possible areas of improvement - one open to each side - that can swing this replay. If Kerry can increase their supply in the middle, their forwards will finish off the job. Conversely if Armagh's attack can eliminate - or at least reduce - inaccuracies, they can rack up the extra scores necessary to win.

This remains knife-edge stuff. Improvements in Kerry's centrefield and Armagh's attack each seem equally improbable. But on the basis that Marsden's return addresses Armagh's problems more convincingly than Kerry's changes address theirs, the Ulster champions can win.

A small number of stand and terrace tickets for today's game will go on general sale at 10 a.m. this morning from a ticket outlet outside the Bank of Ireland at the junction of Drumcondra Road and the Clonliffe Road.