Gavin Cummiskey finds the winning managers of the past two years, despite hesitation, unable to look past the Connacht champions

The head or the heart? Mayo or Fermanagh? Where do your instincts lead you?

Mickey Harte and Joe Kernan were supposed to have been the central characters this week: Armagh versus Tyrone mark II; the showdown of the championship.

That was until Fermanagh and Mayo ripped up the script on that surreal Saturday of August 7th. And so now the last two football All-Ireland-winning managers have to settle for being queried about their conquerors' potential.

Fermanagh have been providing thrills all summer long. Repeatedly written off, they have kept proving the pundits wrong. And yet to side with them now still seems lunacy.

Both Kernan and Harte tend towards Mayo though even they have been caught up by the romance of their Ulster neighbours. Yet, after four impressive wins - against New York, Galway, Roscommon and Tyrone - Mayo look better equipped.

Of course so too did Armagh. Joe Kernan's team produced some of their best football to claim a fourth Ulster title in six years yet could not find their way past Fermanagh.

"My heart says Fermanagh but my head says Mayo," admits the Crossmaglen man. "The reasons are understandable. You'd love to see Fermanagh go on and do it, and I think there is room for improvement, but Mayo just look like an all-round side at the moment.

"Kieran McDonald is playing the football everyone expected of him for many years. I think he has his act together. Also, they have a good defence, good midfield and scoring forwards. It was four wides the last day (against Tyrone), which is unheard of in Mayo football. Fair play to them for getting that right, but maybe the fairytale isn't over for Fermanagh yet."

Therein lies the nub. Is it just a fairytale or can Kernan see Fermanagh stopping the Mayo flow? What about the industry of their captain, Shane McDermott, and Peter Sherry at half-back, their core strength against Armagh?

"Fermanagh have a good central line and that's the backbone of any team. They have the fast men on the wings and they have the self-belief. Can they up it again - which they are going to have to do to beat Mayo - is the question.

"And how will they cope with the pressure of being looked upon as a legitimate team that has a chance of going on?"

Ah, finally the pressure-cooker scenario. Who can survive the white heat of battle?

"What I'm saying about Fermanagh also applies to Mayo," Kernan continued. "Can they cope with the pressure, with the hype? Some people in Mayo are going mad thinking this is going to be their year. This brings new pressures that some teams can't cope with."

Tyrone manager Harte has first-hand knowledge of both sides this summer. Tyrone overcame Fermanagh by only four points in the opening round of the Ulster championship, while Mayo had the extra gears in the final stages of the All-Ireland quarter-final.

Harte, like Kernan, is a strong advocate of passion play but they both know passion alone is not enough to win an All-Ireland.

"Mayo raised their game very well to beat the existing champions," says Harte. "They managed that but can they now raise themselves to play to a higher level again against Fermanagh? Psychologically, there may be a difficulty in doing that.

"I think Fermanagh are in the better position. To win this game would be more than was ever expected of them this year, whereas Mayo need to win the All-Ireland. Anything short of that and they will not be happy, while Fermanagh don't need to look at the bigger prize - they just need to focus on the immediate prize.

"Also, football-wise, Fermanagh have shown they are capable of beating anybody this year. Mayo will hold no fear for them."

No matter what happens, Charlie Mulgrew's young side have carved out the football story of the summer. It takes more than youthful exuberance to get to an All-Ireland semi-final. Quality players help.

"You talk about the two young boys at wing forward (Eamonn Maguire and Mark Little). Then there is Stephen Maguire and Colm Bradley. These guys cause trouble for any defence. Mayo have a good attack but they are going to have to counteract the Fermanagh forwards, which may hinder the type of quality ball going in."

Obviously, whichever team enforce their game plan will progress. As in last year's semi-finals, Harte feels the pretty football will be put aside until the league starts up again.

"I don't think it's going to be an off-the-cuff game because the more you progress in the championship the less chance you have to do that. It's okay talking about this flamboyant and free-flowing football but somewhere along the line people have to study each other's form and not for the beauty of it - to counteract it.

"My heart says Fermanagh but my head says, slightly, Mayo."

Even the most practical of men refuse to write off Fermanagh.