Fermanagh v Mayo: It may have been Fermanagh who left the best opportunity behind them in the drawn match but this afternoon Mayo are at the crossroads. Of the many elements factored into expectations for last week, few foresaw the Connacht champions falling prey to a crisis of confidence.

That may be too strong a description for Mayo's first off day of the season but it must have alarmed the county's more perceptive supporters that their first day in Croke Park as favourites for quite a while should have resulted in such a loss of form throughout the team.

It was therefore a matter of even greater anxiety that two of the team's better performers on the day; primarily Ronan McGarrity and, more ambiguously, Conor Mortimer, should have been the subjects of injury scares. Both were cleared and that's just as well because in their absence the pendulum would certainly have swung in Fermanagh's direction.

In their defence, Mayo can plead disruption by the elements in that their slick, ball-playing style was sabotaged by the wind and rain but Fermanagh could similarly claim that their fast, top-of-the-ground game was equally undermined.

More significantly Mayo had to cope with being a man short after the dismissal of James Gill early in the second half. Gill was a particular loss given that the game was well suited to his big engine and industrious running but he was crazy not to have been more careful after picking up his first yellow card.

So the question at the heart of the replay is: whose morale took the greater knock - Fermanagh because they failed to kill off vulnerable opponents or Mayo whose performance levels dropped so drastically from the highs of a consistent season?

Usually replays come down to which team learned more and which has greater room for improvement.

On that calculation, the emphatic answer is Mayo.

It's as well at this stage to emphasise the Connacht team's troubles didn't fall out of the skies. Fermanagh gave them the hardest match of their season. The marking job Niall Bogue did on Kieran McDonald was tight and disruptive, causing Mayo's attack to falter whereas on the inside Barry Owens, again outstanding, and Ryan McCloskey made life difficult for Trevor and Conor Mortimer.

The latter got away for important scores but at times in the second half could have offered more of a target for his beleaguered team-mates.

Fermanagh also won the centrefield battle of wills with Martin McGrath and Liam McBarron gradually imposing themselves despite the at-times heroic covering of McGarrity. David Brady's difficulty in sustaining a 70-minute presence made his demotion a live issue during the week and, although named in the team, it remains to be seen how Mayo line out.

John Maughan has certainly learned from the experience. Aside from the above problems and the unexpected physical challenge, he was caught on the hop when Charlie Mulgrew reconfigured his attack in the first half and tied down Peadar Gardiner at full back for a crucial phase of the match.

Had Fermanagh not made a charge on the scoreboard in the second quarter, it's conceivable they would have been put away but, as it turned out almost fatally, Mayo were happy enough to get to the break a point ahead after playing into the swirling wind.

But there was more to Mayo's woes than complacency and the efficiency of Fermanagh. McDonald for instance won a reasonable amount of possession but didn't seem to trust his boot in the conditions and his hand passing was wayward and frequently intercepted.

On a more upbeat note, John Maughan was particularly pleased at Mayo surviving their first tight finish of the season and the resilience shown in defence once Fermanagh got into the rhythm of persistent attack as the second half wore on. But there were still enough chances for the Ulster side to win.

Colm Bradley was Fermanagh's most threatening forward and the match's top scorer from play and he will regret his miss from a good position.

Tom Brewster's introduction yielded the wides but not the spectacular scoring dividend it had against Armagh.

There's a huge difference between getting that winning point and not managing it. All the increasingly desperate wides in the quarter-final didn't matter because Brewster shot the winner. But last week, for the first time in their remarkable All-Ireland campaign, Fermanagh didn't manage to find the crucial score.

Mulgrew's team have become so sure of themselves and their methods that you wouldn't bet a lot on them becoming too dispirited by that failure to win. Their performance is likely to be consistent.

The outcome depends on Mayo's ability to raise their game and demonstrate that this year they are different to the side that balked on the threshold of All-Ireland success a decade ago.

Do they believe? Should we believe?

Just about.