Dublin v Louth: Paul Caffrey's team are likely to suffer as a result of Wexford's heroics last week, writes Tom Humphries.

IT'S STRANGELY serendipitous but that fracas/atrocity/handbag fest in Parnell Park between Dublin and Meath may in the end cost this Dublin team their last shot at an All-Ireland title.

Wexford were heroic and dogged last week coming back and finally taking a Meath team shorn through suspension of Nigel Crawford, Séamus Kenny, Shane McAnarney, Niall McKeigue and Brendan Murphy. Meath, who over the years have brought down so many teams in epic comebacks, can have little cause for complaint and bringing on players like Brian Farrell, Shane O'Rourke and Anthony Moyles for runs to improve their fitness when it looked like the game was won was a forgivable error on manager Colm Coyle's part.

Meath lost and will pay the price short-term. The price Dublin pay may be less easily defined but just as high.

Jason Ryan has done a fine job with Wexford and will be putting last week's heroics into context for his players. Meath without five suspended players, with Mark Ward sent off and with Farrell, O'Rourke and Moyles unfit were a team Wexford should (tradition aside) have expected to trouble.

The implications for Leinster are not as attractive as they might be. Not from Dublin's point of view. Wexford are a developing side in a province suffering recession. For Wexford it would be a good year to reach a Leinster final after a series of thwarted ventures to the semis. For Dublin, however, a fourth title on the trot isn't nearly as vital as finding a good test for themselves before the All-Ireland series.

Meath at full strength in a packed Croke Park were the team most likely to provide that. The Leinster final isn't down for decision until the 20th July. By then Meath would have been a serious prospect. They would have been packing the forward lines to examine Dublin's credentials. With O'Rourke and Farrell fit and slotting into a forward line containing Graham Geraghty, Cian Ward, Stephen Bray and Alan Nestor they would have given Dublin the clearest indication possible of their own defensive strengths.

In 2005 in securing the first Leinster of the current run Dublin conceded 0-10 to Longford, 1-10 to Meath , 2-10 to Wexford and 0-13 to Laois. Tyrone put 1-14 on them in the drawn quarter-final and found their All-Ireland winning team during that game.

The next day they took Dublin for 2-18 with 2-12 coming from the starting full-forward line. (With the exception of a freakish day when they had a 21-point margin against Cavan it was easily Tyrone's best total of the year.)

In 2006 Dublin effected the same parsimony in Leinster, conceding 0-13 to Longford, 0-12 to Laois and just 0-9 to Offaly. They faced Leinster opposition in the All-Ireland quarter-final and held Westmeath to just 0-5.

But on semi-final day Mayo managed 1-16, their best score of the year apart from the 1-18 they scored against London. And last year it was the same. Dublin held a developing Meath side to 14 points and to 12 points. They restricted Offaly to 10 in the semi-final and Laois to 1-14 in the final and, commendably, held Derry to 15 in the quarter-final.

Kerry's winning 1-15 in the semi-final wasn't a defensive disaster by any means but the fact remains that while Dublin produce a tantalising forward prospect just about every year (Mark Vaughan, Bernard Brogan, Diarmuid Connolly, Paul Flynn, Paddy Andrews) a corner back as unadorned as Paddy Moran or a centre back as hard as Kevin Moran or Keith Barr would be more desirable arrivals.

Dublin line out tomorrow with a rearguard of David Henry, Ross McConnell, Stephen O'Shaughnessy; Paul Casey, Bryan Cullen and Barry Cahill. Five of these played in last year's semi-final and O'Shaughnessy (small for an elite defender) gets another shot at championship football as Paul Griffin has just returned from an overseas sabbatical.

In that back six there is much honesty but little that is inspirational. Cullen's form has been a worry and since he was tortured by Mayo two years ago there have been doubts about his ability to cope with centre forwards running at him.

McConnell has oodles of football in him and is a Sigerson-winning midfielder. He doesn't have oodles of the stuff full backs need, however, and Dublin are to be grateful that given the county's failure to produce a credible alternative McConnell has knuckled down without complaint.

So many questions are asked annually about Casey's limitations one almost feels a reflex need to defend the guy. Henry and Cahill are decent defenders but symptomatic of another problem in the county - every defender wants to be a wing back.

Of contenders there are few. The St Vincent's corner backs Paul Conlon and Hugh Gill looked naturals in their position in a club campaign that brought them into contact with tasty forward lines from Kilmacud, Portlaoise, Crossmaglen and Nemo Rangers. But the campaign finished a little too late for either to be shoved into a starter's jersey by June.

Ger Brennan, who has left the panel in recent weeks, offers at his best a toughness not widely available in the Dublin defence and, whatever the rights and wrongs of his leaving, the county has lost a player of genuine leadership qualities.

The challenge for places launched by Philip McMahon and Derek Murray fizzled out after the O'Byrne Cup campaign and Niall O'Shea has never quite recovered from his debut against Longford two years ago. Finally, a long-term injury to Paul Brogan deprived the Dubs of a most promising and athletic defensive presence.

The problem for Dublin is not that they have a poor defence but they just don't have the defence to cope with the bigger guns outside Leinster. Serious sides outside Leinster appear to be producing bigger, more mobile and more aggressive forwards. There are few Leinster forwards with the physique or acumen to do the damage Owen Mulligan did late on in 2005 or Alan Dillon and Ger Brady did to Dublin in 2006.

Last year's quarter-final was a case in point. Derry were always going to be dependent on Paddy Bradley. Yet Dublin caused themselves far more discomfort than was necessary by failing to find a man-marker who could restrict Bradley to less than five points from play. Only a splendid block from Cahill late in the game prevented that from being 1-5.

In the semi-final, Kerry just had too many serious forward options despite losing Darragh Ó Sé from midfield for most of the game. That celebrated passing sequence near the end as the Kerry forwards probed for their opening reflected the confidence of men unfazed by what they had seen of the Dublin defence.

There has been much criticism through the Caffrey years of the tendency to surrender or almost surrender leads in big matches, most notably against teams from outside the province. Dublin's Achilles heel, ironically for such a densely populated county, has been personnel. They have a midfield capable of scrapping out parity with any. The forwards, though the rotation regime has eased, still struggle to be cohesive some days but have as much individual talent as there is. The defence, though, suffers from the seeming inability of the development squad system to throw up reliable players across the full-back line in particular but even to produce quality defence-oriented half backs.

So Dublin attempt to duke it out with every decent side they meet and when they run out of steam as all teams must they concede more sapping strings of scores. They lack a defence that offers the option to put specific players man-marking specific threats to any noticeable effect.

Dublin needed Meath at their best in this Leinster championship. A big showdown in July with the variety of forward possibilities Meath would have brought to the table would have told Caffrey and company lots.

As it is, they will have to continue with the default policy of going helter-skelter at teams hoping to outgun them and outrun them up front and then hold on till the end.

Dublin will prevail over Louth tomorrow and barring a biblical outbreak of locusts in the capital will prevail in Leinster.

Whatever the view of what happened in Parnell Park the consequences could be more far-reaching than any of the participants thought at the time.

Meath, with all their players coming back to fitness and availability, will sense an opportunity to whet themselves in the qualifiers. Dublin will depart the borders of Leinster for the hotly disputed territory of the All-Ireland series knowing as little about themselves as ever.

Leinster got easier last Sunday. But the country beyond grew less hospitable.