Meath set to stretch Galway beyond breaking point

Tomorrow's Bank of Ireland All-Ireland football final has triggered a strange dichotomy between the world of punditry and bookmaking…

Tomorrow's Bank of Ireland All-Ireland football final has triggered a strange dichotomy between the world of punditry and bookmaking. Meath are untouchable at 2 to 7 with Galway what is known as a "value" bet at 13 to 8. Yet a week of vox pops conducted amongst GAA personalities reveals a strong hankering for Galway.As far as common threads can be identified, one seems to be that Meath were too good in the semi-final. This, the argument runs, means that they can't be as good in the final or that their heads will have been warped by the scale of their success against Kerry.This is deeply questionable. Few counties turn out mentally better prepared for big occasions than Seβn Boylan's Meath. Whatever their potential downfall this weekend, complacency or failure to perform is unlikely to be the explanation.The truth of the outcome lies - as it often does - between the two extremes. Meath will hardly dominate like they did in the semi-final but they may not need to in order to win. Galway, on the other hand, are viable champions and shouldn't be judged merely on a comparison between the semi-finals.This has been a great year for the two managers. But if Seβn Boylan's task was largely one of timing, rhythm and motivation, John O'Mahony's has touched more often on crisis management and in that respect he has been exceptional.After the immense disappointment of losing the League final to Mayo at Croke Park, O'Mahony was reminded by a reporter that no defeated NFL finalists had even reached an All-Ireland final for over 20 years. For someone normally at pains to play down his team's chances, he didn't look best pleased at this gloomy revelation and this reaction was in keeping with what had been an unsettling afternoon.Galway's rehabilitation programme wasn't helped by the Donnellan controversy and the consequences of it, which were on full view in the abysmal defeat by Roscommon. The county's progress from that trough through the new qualifier series to the verge of an All-Ireland is something for which O'Mahony can take great credit.He revamped his full-back line. Kieran Fitzgerald added pace and dynamism, Gary Fahey settled into good form and his brother Richie completed the new-look deep defence, based around a rookie goalkeeper Alan Keane. The effect has been remarkable, with the full backs catching the eye against Armagh and largely maintaining the good impression.Tomβs Mannion was rescued from an ignominious fate after the Roscommon match had questioned the wisdom of his comeback from retirement. He was reconstituted at centre back where his natural half-back inclinations make him more comfortable.Compared to a year ago, Galway have other advantages. Three key elements are in place. Mannion and Jarlath Fallon are back from long-term injuries and Kevin Walsh is fully fit at centrefield.These are considerable assets but there are strong reasons for narrowly favouring Meath this weekend. The first concerns the trajectory of the team's form. Meath have been improving whereas Galway have been erratic.The bells and whistles that accompanied the comeback against Derry can't disguise the fact that it had been an awful performance up until the last 10 minutes. Galway showed great courage in clawing back a match that looked beyond them but a less limited attacking force than Derry would have buried them in the last quarter.The form of central players hasn't been what it was. Fallon is fighting to prove match fitness, Mannion faces a huge challenge to restrict Trevor Giles and neither Michael Donnellan nor Padraig Joyce are going as well as last year.When was the last time a team won an All-Ireland by playing better in the final than they had ever previously played that campaign?Meath have their own question marks. A half-back line that was regarded as suspect going into the semi-final has hardly been re-forged in the smithy of hell by Kerry's insubstantial half forwards. Paul Clancy, Fallon and Joe Bergin will pose a far more varied threat.But Meath's half-back defence draws on more than the half backs. How comfortable will Declan Meehan, Seβn de Paor and Mannion be tracking their men that far afield? Galway's wing backs love getting up the field - but preferably in space rather than as part of some vast migration.Much will be expected of Derek Savage's display on Cormac Murphy. This has the same problematic air for Meath as the confrontation between Murphy and Michael Russell in the semi-final. Even allowing for the team's dominance and his tenacity, the Meath corner back was lucky not to get taken for 1-3.At no stage of the Kerry match, however, were matters so serious that plan B had to be deployed. So Mark O'Reilly stayed with John Crowley and Murphy with Russell. Tomorrow that may not be the case. There are options. O'Reilly, Donal Curtis or Hank Traynor can all try their hand in that corner.One area where Galway have the potential to make an impact is centrefield. Kevin Walsh has gradually regained fitness and didn't just last 70 minutes in the semi-final but contributed consistently. He has all the attributes necessary to tilt the balance here - even allowing for John McDermott's improved form. When the game heats up O'Mahony will be looking at shoving Donnellan forward - leaving Joe Bergin or Seβn ╙ Domhnaill to cover in the middle.Galway's full-back line will face its greatest test to date. As was proved against Kerry, Graham Geraghty and Ollie Murphy have to be watched all the time. They aren't in the least bit demoralised by losing their private battles in the early stages. Murphy proved it by shooting three points from under the flaps of Michael McCarthy's pocket.Things didn't go Geraghty's way against SΘamus Moynihan, so he simply moved out the field and played a deeper game. Anyway Gary Fahey is unlikely to dominate Geraghty to the extent that Moynihan managed.When the heat was on against both Cork and Derry, Galway conceded goal chances that weren't converted. They can't be sure of that latitude tomorrow.Even when winning the All-Ireland Galway weren't a 70-minute team. This year their down periods are doing more and more damage and for all their undoubted talent, they are struggling to cover the gap. So far they have coped but tomorrow promises to stretch them to breaking point. And probably beyond.Live text updates of the All-Ireland final go to http://www.ireland.com/sports/ SUBSTITUTESMEATH: David Gallagher (St Peter's Dunboyne), Paddy Reynolds (Walterstown), Paul Shankey (Kilmainhamwood), John Cullinane (Drumree), Seamus Kenny (Simonstown Gaels), Niall Kelly (Dunshaughlin), Dermot Kealy (Dunshaughlin), Adrian Kenny (Summerhill), Mick O'Dowd (Skryne), Enda McManus (Dunboyne), Christopher Reynolds (Walterstown), Jody Devine (Ballinlough), Anthony Moyles (St Paul's), Charles McCarthy (Walterstown), David Crimmins (Dunshaughlin), Niall McKeigue (Navan O'Mahony's).GALWAY: Padraig Lally (An Spideal), Alan Kerins (Salthill- Knocknacarra), Seβ╙ Domhnaill (An Ceathru Rua), Tomas Meehan (Caltra), Micheal ╙ Callarain (An Spideal), Kieran Comer (Corofin), Matthew Clancy (Oughterard), John Donnellan (Dunmore-McHales), Ray Silke (Corofin), John Divilly (Kilkerrin-Clonberne), Shay Walsh (Glenamaddy), Kenny Naughton (St Grellan's Ballinasloe)