Rugby World Cup Semi-final preview Australia v New ZealandThere's only one game bigger than this. And even the Southern Hemisphere play-off for the World Cup final has as much internecine rivalry and baggage as the France-England face-off.
Yet all those last-ditch Australian wins in Bledisloe Cup deciders and the fight for the rights to host the 2003 Rugby World Cup all now seem to be working to New Zealand's advantage.
Not unexpectedly, sacrificing home advantage has actually been an advantage to the All Blacks. Away from the prying eyes of their public the All Blacks are revelling in their relative anonymity.
Based in Melbourne, they are in Aussie Rules territory. They can walk undetected down the street, as one of them was with his girlfriend the other day, blissfully unaware of their ultra-critical media. Not so Australia.
Even though they too are in their Coffs Harbour hideaway, there's no escaping the brickbats. The Wallabies are under siege from an even more critical media and very demanding rugby public. Their performances have largely been derided. A litany of ex-Wallaby players and coaches, some of them team-mates of current players, have called for wholesale changes, with captain George Gregan uppermost amongst them. It can't be helpful.
Pessimism is rife. From as far back as last Monday, the portents were gloomy, with one tabloid sports section carrying a white-on-black heading stating "the future is all black" to the backdrop of a grizzled, unshaven chin above an All Black jersey.
Yet through it all, the Wallabies and home media combined have tried desperately to explore points of vulnerability in the All Black psyche. At yesterday's final All Black press conference, their captain, Reuben Thorne, was reminded that no New Zealander has lifted the William Webb Ellis Trophy (aka Bill hereabouts with typical irreverence) for 16 years and was asked if they were "chokers".
It even prompted Thorne to say something mildly quotable. A first. "Well, we might have been in the past but we haven't been this year, and certainly against the Wallabies we weren't. And hopefully this will continue on Saturday."
Chief target has been King Carlos, aka Carlos Spencer, whose extravagant talents and inventive distribution have been given full reign by John Mitchell to unleash the paciest outside backs which the global game has possibly ever seen. Earlier this week Eddie Jones speculated that Spencer, no less than any other player, might respond differently if put under pressure, and that he hadn't been thus far in this tournament.
The former Wallaby outhalf Paul McLean, circa '74 to '82, weighed in publicly by declaring that Spencer's tendency for an off-day augurs well for Australia this weekend. "He's very much a confidence player and in those situations like this weekend, when it's very tense and expectations are high, he struggles when under the pump."
It also transpires that Jones has this week brought in his good friend Scott Johnston, the Welsh assistant coach, no doubt to pick his brains as to how Wales so sensationally exposed chinks in the All Blacks' defence in their final pool game. And, of course, what does all of this tell us? That the Australians are worried, very worried, and with good reason.
Not just in this World Cup, but all through 2003 in the Super 12 and in the Tri-Nations, New Zealand rugby teams and players have simply shown better form. And it's not even the memory of the All Blacks' stunning 50-21 win at this same venue which sets them apart.
More pertinent in the context of this semi-final was the way Thorne called every lineout on himself in the last five minutes of their decisive 21-17 win in the Beldisloe Cup at Eden Park in August and the All Blacks ran down the clock with such aplomb which even old New Zealand rugby sages were surprised and impressed. The Wallaby curse had been lifted.
And even allowing for the standard of opposition they've faced, the All Blacks end games have been spectacularly impressive in this World Cup. In the last 25 minutes of their five matches to date, the All Blacks have scored 127 points without reply.
If the All Blacks' pack can repeat their dominance of last week over the Springbok behemoths, and all the signs are that they're peaking as the tournament progresses, then it's hard to see how on earth the Wallabies can stop them.
The partnership between Justin Marshall, rejuvenated and playing as well as ever, and Spencer is even looking as good as the Gregan-Stephen Larkham axis.
Admittedly they've had to accommodate Leon McDonald at outside centre, and Stirling Mortlock is the more potent runner, but MacDonald is hardly a Test novice.
Most of all though, the outside trio of Doug Howlett, Mils Muliaina and Joe Rokocoko have a far more intuitive understanding than the Wallabies triumvirate of Rugby League converts, the one-dimensional Wendell Sailor, Matt scissorhands Rogers, and Lote Tuqiri. It seems unfathomable that Jones is now daring to go into this game without Joe Roff from the off, not to mention leaving Matt Burke, another Union stalwart, out of the 22.
In an unusually candid and self-critical analysis of the Wallabies' backplay in this tournament, their backs coach Glen Ella has conceded that their backs are at fault.
Yet he's being kind to his forwards. This, after all, is the pack which Ireland cleaned out in the lineouts, and in much else besides, as did the Scots. They don't have a renowned scrummager in the front row, or a John Eales-type in the second row, and though David Lyons has taken the ball up well, he is a one-trick pony compared to the phenomenal Jerry Collins, who is shaping up to be the player of the tournament.
More muscle in the grunt and grind, more creativity in the playmaking department, and more of a cutting edge out wide, there can only be one winner. King Carlos to still be smiling at the end.
NEW ZEALAND: M Muliaina; D Howlett, L MacDonald, A Mauger, J Rokocoko; C Spencer, J Marshall; D Hewett, K Mealamu, G Somerville, C Jack, A Williams, R Thorne (capt), R McCaw, J Collins. Replacements: M Hammett, K Meeuws, B Thorn, M Holah, B Kelleher, D Carter, C Ralph.
AUSTRALIA: M Rogers, W Sailor, S Mortlock, E Flatley, L Tuqiri, S Larkham, G Gregan (capt), D Lyons, P Waugh, G Smith, N Sharpe, J Harrison, B Darwin, B Cannon, B Young. Replacements: J Paul, A Baxter, D Giffin/D Vickerman, M Cockbain, C Whitaker, N Grey, J Roff.
Referee: C White (England).
Head-to-heads: Due to the Australian Rugby Union recognising matches of NSW v New Zealand in the 1920's as full internationals, discrepancies exist as to how many Test matches the two have played.
According to Australia: played 142, New Zeland 96 wins, Australia 41 wins, five draws.
According to New Zealand: played 118, New Zealand 78 wins, Australia 35 wins, five draws.
World Cup meetings: 1991 (semi-final) Australia 16 New Zealand 6 (Lansdowne Road).
Biggest wins: Australia 28-7 (Telstra Stadium, 1999. New Zealand 43-6 (Athletic Park 1996).
Betting: (Paddy Powers): 11/4 Australia, 20/1 Draw, 1/4 New Zealand. Handicap odds (= Australia _+11 pts) 10/11 Australia, 16/1 Draw, 10/11 New Zealand.
Forecast: New Zealand to win.
