Ireland v Wales: Naturally tactics will play a significant role tomorrow but after the recent calamities, this contest comes down to psychology. Call it sports science or just the mental challenge of Test rugby but the team that switches on correctly come kick-off will prevail.
Both sides have had issues to sift through this week. I can't remember a Six Nations game with such a pressure cooker build-up. The mood in the principality got ugly as the Welsh public lambasted the players and new coach. Scott Johnson is a good guy and respected worldwide but he has never been a head coach. Johnson has talked his team up - now he must walk the line in his first test as the boss. Otherwise, the Welsh media will crucify them. You only had to see Gareth Thomas on the BBC to see the stress they have put themselves under. I have empathy for their situation but no sympathy.
On paper this Ireland team should put 30 points on their weakened opponents. This brings a different, yet equally heavy, mental load. Ireland haven't played to the expected standard for 12 months. There is no synergy in Ireland's play. That is something Eddie O'Sullivan must address. I think they will beat an improving, yet lateral, Scotland in two weeks' time so in order to arrive at Twickenham on March 18th with a Triple Crown up for grabs they must do the business in this defining match of the current World Cup cycle.
Again, it's all about dealing with the psychological aspect. I remember three years ago, Leinster were trailing by five points with 12 minutes to go in a hugely important game against Newport at Rodney Parade when the lights went out. Newport coach, former Springbok coach Ian McIntosh, lost it. He started screaming at anyone in range including me. As we were leaving the pitch, Bobby Casey whispered into my ear to say something funny. I didn't really get it at the time but I said to the fellas "We got them right where we want them now." The dressingroom erupted. Why? Because that's what was required at the time to lift the mental pressure. When the game restarted Brian O'Driscoll was in sensational form and we turned it around to win.
Maybe that's what the Welsh need to do right now. The pressure they are under though is self-imposed. Welsh rugby was like a drug addict for the last 20 years that finally kicked the habit last season - but they have regressed. The team and management have created this situation and it's up to the artistic side of Johnson's coaching repertoire to break the mental barrier of guilt.
Make no mistake about it: this is a poor Welsh team. A caricature to last year's Grand Slammers. Take the centre pairing of Hal Luscombe and Matthew Watkins. I expect O'Driscoll and Gordon D'Arcy to devour them. The only reason I can justify Gavin Henson being held in reserve is because the team have yet to forgive him for the book.
Henson is a difficult one to handle but nobody will ever be as temperamental as David Campese. When I coached him at New South Wales Waratahs sometimes he was a nightmare but I had him in my team every week. Gavin Henson is a better player than the two incumbents combined.
If the Welsh backs were a Celtic League line-up, the opposition would run at them all day. Ireland have the best back line in the competition - maybe with the exception of France - but I would still have selected Denis Hickie ahead of Andrew Trimble and dropped the out-of-sorts Geordan Murphy for Girvan Dempsey. With leaders like Foley, Gleeson, Corrigan, Byrne and O'Connell missing for whatever reason, Hickie would be a lieutenant O'Driscoll knows he could trust. I am glad to see Girvan back in the 22 considering O'Sullivan again went for such an inexperienced bench.
In the aforementioned players' absence, Simon Easterby and David Wallace must step up in the leadership stakes, while I have no doubt Mal O'Kelly has a big game in him. I would like to see David Humphreys introduced early if Ronan O'Gara fails to get the back line moving. O'Gara does not like being replaced but he responds to the threat. Humphreys is a great attacking player and can lift the team in one of his last games.
The only advantage Wales have is in the backrow. The Charvis-Williams-Owen unit have a far more balanced look to the Irish trio. The pressure game could turn against Ireland if Williams is allowed pilfer early ball at the breakdown. Wallace needs to counteract the Welsh scavenger.
If Ireland remain patient, the load will shift on to Welsh shoulders and Lansdowne Road will get to see the Irish back line in full flow.
