On Monday Colin Montgomerie appears on the BBC programme They Think It's All Over. By then it may well be. The man who has been, for the past five years, the European number one could have been supplanted by Lee Westwood, or just possibly Darren Clarke.

But Montgomerie himself is almost indifferent to his fate. "The more I win it," he said on the eve of the deciding event, the Volvo Masters here at Montecastillo, "the less it means. I've established a record in winning five on the trot, a record that might never be broken, and winning the fifth was tense. But now it doesn't mean as much as in the past. This week I'm just looking forward to gaining as many Ryder Cup and world ranking points as possible."

The Scot has been down-playing the importance of another European number one title all season, ever since, in fact, he won his fifth. He said then that he would be concentrating much more on trying to win majors, a plan that has gone seriously awry with only one top-10 finish, eighth in the Masters.

He was 18th in the US Open, missed the cut in the Open and was 44th in the US PGA, and yet he is still prepared to proclaim his 11th year on the European Tour as a success.

"I won my biggest stroke play tournament, the Volvo PGA, and my biggest match play tournament, the Andersen Consulting, so that must be good." Indeed a great many professionals would consider their careers complete with just one year as good as that, but Monty has admitted that for as long as there is not a major championship on his CV it will be considered a blip.

Not by his bank manager, though. Montgomerie has won £760,077 this year and if he wins this week will take away a £166,000 first prize, plus a further £170,000 from the Volvo bonus pool. That would make him the first man to win over £1 million in official prize money in one year on the European Tour. Should Westwood win, he will also surmount the £1 million barrier.

As for who has to do what to win, the situation is simple given a proficiency in higher mathematics. Broadly speaking, it is this: If Montgomerie wins, he takes his sixth European title; if Westwood wins, he has his first.

Westwood can also win by coming second, providing Montgomerie is third or lower, and the same applies if Westwood is third and Montgomerie is 12th or worse. Even fourth would suffice for Westwood if Montgomerie were 45th or lower. As for Clarke, he has to win with Westwood no better than third and Montgomerie no better than ninth.

Montgomerie must be the favourite, given that he is £45,265 ahead of Westwood, a situation that uncannily mirrors that of last year when the Scot was £45,249 ahead of Bernhard Langer, and eventually won the rankings battle comfortably. Mind you, the tournament was won by one Lee Westwood who, in a rain-affected event, was 16 under par for the three rounds played.

It was that result which sparked Westwood into the vein of form which saw him win tournaments in Japan, Australia and north America, plus four in Europe this year, and go from the mid-30s in the world rankings to his current eighth place.

He played in the pro-am yesterday, without the corset he has used to support the torn muscle he has in his right side, and scored what is, without any pressure, a fairly meaningless four-under par 68. Clarke had a 64 and Montgomerie a 63.

All of them found that the reworked Montecastillo, subjected to some fierce criticism about the state of the greens last year, was much improved. Who will win? It was no good asking Nick Faldo yesterday, for the six-times major championship winner is constitutionally incapable of saying that someone else will win an event in which he himself is playing. "I don't think either will win," he said. "Hopefully I'll put a spanner in the works along the way."

Faldo, who is trying to struggle out of the most severe slump of his career, feels that he is working on the right lines and he remains as keen to win as ever. "I'm fit and strong," he said yesterday. "If I continue for another five years, that's 20 more majors, and I've got to believe that there's one in there for me."

That would take Faldo a significant step up in the pecking order of major championship winners for he would then be on seven, sharing that distinction with Arnold Palmer, Gene Sarazen, Sam Snead and Harry Vardon.