RUGBY HEINEKEN CUP POOL TWO: Racing Métro 92 v Leinster:FOR LEINSTER, the job is almost done, but there is more to do. Switch their hitherto impressive Heineken Cup machine into over-drive one more time, treat the demands of an away night in France with the respect the encounter merits and play with their Test-like Euro intensity.
For with one more win they will have secured a highly-advantageous home quarter-final.
It may not have the demands of a must-win game, they may have already qualified, but history has shown us that earning a home quarter-final almost puts a foot in the semi-finals. To pass up the opportunity which knocks now would leave them kicking themselves.
Not unsurprisingly therefore, coach Joe Schmidt has kept his changes to a minimum, and of the three he does make Isaac Boss returns in place of Eoin Reddan at scrumhalf, as was the case for the trek to Clermont in round three, in what seems to amount to an away-day, horses-for-courses approach. Knowing the French as well as he does, and probably envisaging a trademark assault close-in from Racing, Schmidt has opted for the more physical defensive presence of Boss, with the option of bringing on Reddan to quicken things up if, or more likely when, required.
However, this time the “away” selection does not include a return for Heinke van der Meuwe, which must be a compliment to both Cian Healy’s scrummaging and his form.
Gordon D’Arcy returns from injury at inside centre for Fergus McFadden, while in the continuing absence of the previously indestructible Jamie Heaslip, the third alteration from the team which beat Saracens sees Rhys Ruddock start ahead of two-try scorer Dominic Ryan, which is perhaps more due to the latter’s heavier workload of late.
Reddan, McFadden and Ryan are accommodated on the bench, with Shaun Berne missing out.
Of more interest, perhaps, is the Racing selection, given they are virtually out of contention and, second in the Top 14, visit Clermont (fifth, but only five points behind) next Wednesday in the Auvergne. Pierre Berbizier makes only three changes to the team which extended Clermont to a 28-17 win in the Auvergne last week, with hooker Gregory Arganese, tighthead Scott Zimmermann and lock Santiago Dallape called up for Carlo Festuccia, Benjamin Sa and Karim Glazal.
This means there is no Sebastien Chabal, Johnny Leo’o, leading points scorer Jonathan Wisniewski (suspended), Mirco Bergamasco, Alberto Vulivuli or Sereli Bobo, though Andrea Lo Cicero, Sa, Lionel Nallet, Jacques Cronje and Francois Steyn are accommodated on the bench.
(Similarly, with Racing next Wednesday at home in mind, Vern Cotter’s virtual second-string selection for the trek to Saracens this evening would not suggest that the Challenge Cup is uppermost in their priorities.)
It is clearly some way short of Berbixier’s preferred selection were this a targeted game, though that may make some of the selections all the more dangerous. The extravagantly-gifted Juan Martin Hernandez (something of a luxury item since returning to Paris with Metro) is an obvious case in point, one who has caused Irish sides pain before.
As interesting, therefore, will be how they play. Their rugby this season has been of the watching-paint-dry variety, conservative, forward-orientated, territory-based percentage rugby in which three-pointers from Wisniewski – be they penalties or drop goals – would do. Remarkably, they haven’t scored a try in their last six home matches in the Top 14.
However, this encounter affords them the opportunity to try something different, and, were they encouraged by a good start, a few Hernandez kicks or one or two of their famed scrums, a Friday night in Paris could become very interesting.
Leinster need solid basics, but with Mike Ross up against Julien Brugnaut, the scrum should be one of them. And with Leo Cullen and Nathan Hines up front, so should the lineouts, while with Boss so should the defence around the fringes.
Then, when it comes to playing expansively, applying both the kind of width within their armoury and their support play and offloading games, their game is well more advanced than Racing’s, as 16 tries, liberally dispersed among 11 players, from five games in a tough pool amply testifies.
One could be concerned about Leinster’s mental state going into this game. There have been ample examples of teams with seemingly nothing tangible to play for who grow in confidence, whereas those with something on the line grow more anxious.
Munster’s only defeat at Thomond Park in Heineken Cup history was their only home game when they had already qualified, albeit against a Leicester team fighting for their lives. But Leinster’s case history includes a few occasions when they tripped up: Bourgoin and Castres spring to mind, as well as Edinburgh.
Virtually out of contention for fourth round rematches a week after being thrashed in the RDS, both Bourgoin and Castres had to be invited into those games by Leinster mistakes and a few home-town decisions. But having been, the crowd helped them along to wins with only pride at stake.
Racing are, potentially, more dangerous, but you’d imagine Leinster have enough experience in their locker to close out the deal.
RACING METRO 92:D Scarbrough; B Fall, V Vakatawa, A Masi, J Saubade; J Hernandez, N Durand (capt); J Brugnaut, G Arganese, S Zimmermann, S Dellape, F van der Merwe, R Vaquiin, B Le Roux, A Galindo. Replacements: B Noirot, A Lo Cicero, B Sa, L Nallet, M Loree, F Steyn, J Cronje, A Batut.
LEINSTER:I Nacewa; S Horgan, B O'Driscoll, G D'Arcy, L Fitzgerald; J Sexton, I Boss; C Healy, R Strauss, M Ross, L Cullen (capt), N Hines, R Ruddock, S Jennings, S O'Brien. Replacements: J Harris-Wright, H Van der Merwe, C Newland, D Toner, D Ryan, E Reddan, E O'Malley, F McFadden.
Referee:Greg Garner (England).
Results so far:Racing – 22-38 Leinster (a); 16-9 Clermont (h); 24-21 Saracens (a); 14-19 Saracens (h); 17-28 Clermont (a). Leinster – Racing 38-22 (h); 25-23 Saracens (a); 13-20 Clermont (a); 24-8 Clermont (h); 43-20 Saracens (h).
Leading points scorers:Racing – J Wisniewski 26. Leinster – J Sexton 55.
Leading try scorers:Racing – S Bobo 2. Leinster – S O'Brien 3, F McFadden, C Healy, D Ryan 2 each.
Betting (Paddy Power):17/10 Racing, 20/1 Draw, 4/9 Leinster. Handicap odds: 10/11 Racing (+5pts), Draw (Racing +5) 22/1, 10/11 Leinster (-5pts).
Forecast:Leinster to win.