Five days before the start of the football championship, you're still looking to place your bet, and you're wondering what's the deal with Tyrone. You're not alone.
Rarely has that phrase about the cup they're drinking from being either half-full or half-empty - depending in which way you look at it - seemed more apt. Yet do we dare write them off? We know their two star forwards, Stephen O'Neill and Brian McGuigan, are still struggling with fitness and likely to miss their Ulster quarter-final against Fermanagh on Sunday week.
We believe defender Martin Penrose will also miss out after sustaining a knee injury over the weekend. We sense Seán Cavanagh will have a big summer and yet they still miss the effervescent influence that was Peter Canavan.
And then there's a player like Owen Mulligan. At his best he's still among the most feared forwards in the country. At his worst he's nothing to fear at all. And like many of this current Tyrone team,Mulligan was at his best and worst during the National League.
On that brilliant opening night against Dublin he hit 0-4, revelling in the big-time occasion. A week later he hit 0-5 against Fermanagh. Then Mulligan was scoreless and red-carded against Cork. Form continued to decline and he ended with another red card against Mayo, which had threatened his availability for the first round of the championship before being rescinded.
Mulligan epitomises the fate of Tyrone this summer. If he hits a good day the potential for damage very much exists. If he hits a bad day the potential is for no harm at all. No one seems more aware of this than Mulligan. "I've been around five years now," he says, "and I know it's up to players like me to take more things by the scruff of the neck. We've all stepped it up over the last few weeks, and training has been gong well.
"There's been 38 players training with us, and it's good competition for places. Last summer we had 16 or 17 men at training some nights, and that wasn't good. I do love the championship. Love the sunshine, I suppose. The championship has always been the main one for me. I always try to get my form back up for that. But I think we've all pulled together again, and ready to give it a good rattle."
There are various theories for Tyrone's demise last summer, not all based on their spate of injuries. Their All-Ireland success of 2005 - earned over 10 hard matches - took a toll, and when they went to that well once more, especially in the second-round qualifier against Laois, it had simply run dry.
"It was a testing year," agrees Mulligan. "Laois beat us fair and square in the qualifiers . . . It's not nice going out early, but then we did get ourselves a bit of a break I'd still rather be playing games than training. I think that's why we were so fit that year. But then maybe it did take something out of us for the following year. "This Tyrone team, though, we're definitely not done. We're still a relatively young side.
Apart from (Brian) Dooher - and he's still flying, probably one of the fittest players we have. But the younger players like Colm Cavanagh, TommyMcGuigan, Brian's brother, are all chomping at the bit, and can't wait to get out against Fermanagh in Clones. They're still very hungry. We're expecting to win an All-Ireland. That's what's going around the camp. There's no point in just going for the Ulster title."
Not many managers have been as tenacious about winning All-Irelands as Mickey Harte. "He's still very single-minded, Tyrone to the back bone. If you have any doubts he'll soon put them out of you. We know there's no feeling like winning an All-Ireland. And can't wait to start again. But we know we can't just be the same players that went out in 2005 and 2006. We all have to reinvent ourselves." Take that as a warning. Tyrone's cup still looks half-full, at least.