RUGBY/Harlequins v Munster: Yet another moment of truth for Munster. Lose against Harlequins in Twickenham today and they run the serious risk of being evicted from the Heineken European Cup. But that ought to concentrate the minds, and in their hour of need, the Red Army will be there in force again. Besides, they've been in tighter corners.
Munster know how to negotiate the last-day pool minefield almost blindfolded and, knowing that a win will see them through, and that were it to come with a bonus point it would enhance their prospects of a 'home' quarter-final in Lansdowne Road, it seems virtually inconceivable that they won't reach the last eight for a record seventh season in a row.
There is a get out of jail card were they to lose, in the shape of the Ospreys beating Castres, and even without Jason Spice and Duncan Jones, Lyn Jones has picked a strong team. But surely Munster won't let it come to that? No doubt in an accurate barometer of his squad's mood, coach Alan Gaffney conceded he was "nervous but confident." They've also been boosted by the confirmed return of Rob Henderson, with Mike Mullins and Shaun Payne shifting along the threequarter-line and Mossy Lawlor to the bench.
The squad travelled over on Thursday and visited a surprisingly damaged-looking Twickenham surface yesterday after their captain's run in London Irish's Sunbury grounds. "There's not much grass on it and it's pretty soft underneath, but it should be fine," said Gaffney, bearing in mind the favourable forecast for today.
Admittedly there is some unnerving historical baggage attached to this place. Most obviously, of course, Twickenham is the scene of perhaps Munster's greatest heartache, when they lost the 2000 final to Northampton 9-8. What's more, in a flip reversal of Leinster's trend abroad, whereas Munster have a record the envy of anyone's on their travels to France, they have lost on five of their previous eight visits to England in this competition.
It's also pretty obvious that Munster aren't scoring tries like in previous campaigns, with their back play especially lacking penetration and pace.
They've scored just 10 tries in five cup matches to date, whereas at this juncture in the previous six seasons in which they went on to reach the quarter-finals, Munster had scored 18, 23, 16, 13, 16, and 12 respectively.
They are also, of course, missing their talisman and primary source of points, Ronan O'Gara. Yet Paul Burke's goal-kicking remains every bit as reliable, he should be better for last week's experience in difficult circumstances and he should also be inspired by the return to London to face his old club of the last four years.
Indeed, it is both a surprise and a relief to learn that Marc Evans has left Jeremy Staunton on the bench. Not that Andy Dunne, whose eye for a break and pace can cut any defensive line open, isn't a highly skilled performer in his own right, although one imagines Munster will target him defensively. It's just that Staunton could have been as inspired as Burke at the thought of re-acquainting himself with his erstwhile team-mates. And, knowing his mentality, he would have revelled on this stage, possibly more than any other game this season.
Both teams are liable to be inspired by the stage and the accompanying record pool attendance. Harlequins won't have a bigger London audience this season, and the break from the Premiership will be a form of escapism. Even so, eight defeats having given way to a draw and a brief flurry of three wins, they've lost their last three, capsizing altogether last week in Castres.
The return of Tony Diprose's leadership will stiffen their resolve but Harlequins don't seem especially equipped to take on Munster up front. With Dunne in situ and the exciting Ugo Monye recalled in a back three with Simon Keogh and Gavin Duffy, they look as if they'll have a cut at Munster.
"We will want to play a ball in hand game also," maintained Gaffney, "but it is a big pitch and we want to play with structure as well. We can't afford to play Barbarians rugby. We have to show more patience than we did last week and build the process, and if we do that the scores will follow."
No doubt it will be nail-biting stuff. It was ever thus with Munster. But it would be a surprise if they faltered at this juncture, and by hook or by crook (eh, a bonus try in the 80th minute?) they might also obtain that 'home' quarter-final.
NEC HARLEQUINS: G Duffy; S Keogh, D James, M Deane, U Monye; A Dunne, O So'oialo; C Jones, A Tiatia, J Dawson, K Rudzki, S Miall, N Easter, T Diprose (capt), L Sherriff. Replacements: J Hayter, T Muggeridge, R Winters, M Molitika, A Reay, J Staunton, T Williams.
MUNSTER: C Cullen; S Payne, M Mullins, R Henderson, A Horgan; P Burke, P Stringer; M Horan, F Sheahan, J Hayes, D O'Callaghan, P O'Connell, A Quinlan, D Leamy, A Foley (capt). Replacements: J Flannery, G McIlwham, T Hogan, J Williams, M Prendergast, J Holland, M Lawlor.
Referee: Joel Jutge (France)
PREVIOUS MEETINGS: (1997-98) Harlequins 48 Munster 40; Munster 23 Harlequins 16. (2001-2) Harlequins 8 Munster 24; Munster 51 Harlequins 17. (2004-5) Munster 15 Harlequins 9.
FORMGUIDE: Munster - 15-9 v Harlequins (h); 20-18 v Ospreys (a); 12-19 v Castres (a); 36-8 v Castres (h); 20-10 v Ospreys (h). Harlequins - 9-15 v Munster (a); 23-23 v Castres (h); 7-24 v Ospreys (a); 19-46 v Ospreys (h); 13-58 v Castres (a).
LEADING TRY SCORERS: Harlequins - Dafyyd James 2. Munster - Denis Leamy, Anthony Foley, Christian Cullen 2 each.
LEADING POINTS SCORERS: Harlequins - Jeremy Staunton 2. Munster - Ronan O' Gara 41.
ODDS (Paddy Powers): 4/1 Harlequins, 33/1 Draw, 1/7 Munster. Handicap betting (=Harlequins + 13pts) 10/11 Harlequins, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Munster.
FORECAST: Munster to win.
