The proud unbeaten records of the four provinces of Ireland couldn't last forever, and yet it's probably fair to say that only Munster stand as favourites in their respective pools. Even Leinster aren't much better than an even money chance, while the odds are now against Ulster and Connacht making progress to the knock-out stages. As Tarzan said to Jane, "it's a jungle out there".
"The quality of the matches in the European Cup is getting better and better," says Declan Kidney, who reckons "there is more familiarity between the clubs and that has brought the scorelines down."
Right enough, there are fewer hammerings in this season's competition, while the organisers' continuing insistence on allowing only the two best pool runners-up to qualify for the knock-out stages further reduces a team's margin for error. Were they to revert to a formula similar to that of four seasons ago, then all six pool runners-up could be accommodated in an additional play-off round to earn a passage into the quarter-finals.
However, as Leinster, Bath (twice) and Llanelli discovered over the last two seasons, eight points or four wins out of six doesn't necessarily get you over the qualification threshold; all the more so if the group is particularly competitive and tries are harder to come by.
Considering how the six pools are panning out, this is likely to be even more so the case this season. Munster are undoubtedly the best-placed after obtaining two priceless away wins - last Friday's at Bridgend was only their second in six attempts on Welsh soil. Afterwards, Kidney echoed the words of his Leinster counterpart, Matt Williams, in Donnybrook that same night: "I was absolutely delighted with our win at Bridgend because we hadn't been together for three weeks and there were a lot of tired bodies following the two Irish Six Nations matches. Bridgend could have won the game and they will be a real threat when we meet again at Musgrave Park at the weekend."
Despite three wins out of three, Kidney concluded: "We've got to win all three of our remaining games to be certain of qualifying for the quarter-finals."
This might sound excessively if typically conservative by Kidney, except that it is quite conceivably true given Castres also won away at Harlequins. True, Munster are two points above their French rivals and now have successive home games against Bridgend and Harlequins. However, were Castres to complete doubles over Harlequins at home this Saturday and Bridgend away when the competition resumes in the first weekend of January, then Castres would go into the final round at home to Munster the following weekend only two points adrift of Kidney's team.
In the event of two sides finishing level on points, firstly the results and then the try tallies in their respective head-to-heads decide the final placings.
Admittedly, this is jumping the gun a little, but given Munster outscored Castres by two tries to nil in their first meeting, in that scenario Castres could overtake Munster on 10 points were they to win by three tries or more.
While Munster would assuredly reach the quarter-finals on 10 points as one of the two best losers, they would thus be obliged to play away, so in order to ensure a cherished home quarter-final (and no team has won the European Cup by winning away in the quarter-finals) Munster might indeed, as Kidney suggests, have to win all six pool games.
The feeling that next weekend is a make-or-break series is strengthened on closer examination of Pool Six, where Leinster lead on six points after three home wins. However, in light of Leinster winning the try count by 2-0 last Friday, were Newport to win the return meeting in Rodney Parade this Friday night and outscore Leinster by three tries or more, the balance would very definitely be in their favour.
In that scenario, Leinster would have to emulate Newport by winning away in Newcastle in early January just to keep pace with the Welsh club, while Toulouse could even force a three-way tie on eight points by winning in Newcastle this Saturday and beating both Newport and Leinster at home. Most likely only the pool winners would progress in that case.
Alternatively, were Leinster to win in Newport this Friday, and Toulouse were to lose in Newcastle (who expect to welcome back Jonny Wilkinson, Pat Lam and Stuart Grimes), then Leinster would actually be assured of winning the pool this weekend and a place in the last eight as Newport could only match their tally of eight points (and would have lost both meetings) and Toulouse's maximum would be six points.
Given the likely return of David Humphreys and Gary Longwell, plus the Ravenhill factor on a Friday night, then the White Knights of Ulster cannot be without a chance of overturning last Saturday's 40-11 defeat to Stade Francais.
However, unless they did so by four tries or more the advantage would still be with Stade, though of course the possibility of Ulster obtaining 10 points and progressing as one of the two best runners-up would be strong. At least Ireland still have three viable contenders, two of them going strongly.
The Scottish and Italians pairings haven't managed one win between them and are to all intents and purposes already out of contention, while four of England's sextet have effectively bitten the dust. Let's hear it for the English Premiership one more time.
A book celebrating Ireland's contributions to the Lions was launched in the IRFU's committee room in Lansdowne Road last night. Written by the Irish Examiner's rugby correspondent, Barry Coughlan, and entitled The Irish Lions 1896-2001, it highlights every one of the 123 Irish players to have represented the Lions on tours to South Africa, New Zealand and Australia. In addition to the many coaches, assistant coaches, managers and management personnel, eight of the 123 were captains of the Lions: Dr Tom Smyth, Sammy Walker, Karl Mullen, Robin Thompson, Ronnie Dawson, Tom Kiernan, Willie John McBride and Ciaran Fitzgerald. Priced at £9.95, it is now available at IRFU outlets and bookshops.
