Munster may need return to basics

European Cup Pool Four/ Cardiff v Munster ( Sunday, Arms Park, 1

European Cup Pool Four/ Cardiff v Munster( Sunday, Arms Park, 1.0 On TV: Sky Sports 3) Rather than take the money and run, Cardiff have long since made clear their intentions with regard to this game by declining to cash in with a move to the Millennium Stadium and therefore embolden Munster with a bigger Red Army.

In the more claustrophobic Arms Park, where they are unbeaten this season, the Blues will put it up to the champions in a truer European Cup setting. It assuredly maximises home advantage.

Their defeat in the Millennium Stadium has left the Blues with little room for manoeuvre. Cardiff have the best pedigree of the Welsh sides in this competition, a final in the inaugural year being followed by a further four successive appearances in the knock-out stages - although they've not appeared in the last eight since 2001.

It was during those early years that Cardiff did what no other European team have come close to doing: they beat Munster on the three occasions they met, including Munster's only home defeat in the 11-year history of the Cup, at Musgrave Park eight seasons and 31 games ago, when current assistant coach Rob Howley was outstanding.

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They also beat Munster in the second week of the current Magners League, though as Munster were well short of full strength, that is virtually as unreliable a formguide as those three previous meetings in the cup.

Nevertheless, this is a seriously difficult assignment for Munster, whose momentum from their opening wins away to Leicester and at home to Bourgoin has been interrupted by the November Test hiatus.

Cardiff will be up for this game in front of a capacity 13,000 crowd, not least because they see it as a point of no return.

"It's a must-win game, I think we all realise that," says coach Dai Young. "If we win, we're back in with a chance. If we lose, then sadly I think we're out."

Munster failed to scale anything like their earlier Cup heights in last week's surprisingly hard-earned 13-0 win over Connacht, which also exacted a heavy toll. John Kelly and Barry Murphy have yet to recover from injuries picked up in that game. Kelly has a hamstring strain and Murphy hurt a shoulder, but both are hopeful of being fit for next week's return in Thomond Park.

With Anthony Foley and Marcus Horan also sidelined to longer-term injuries, Munster have a slightly skeletal look.

In all, there are five changes from the side that started last weekend, with Shaun Payne returning at fullback, Ian Dowling on the wing, Lifeimi Mafi forming a new midfield partnership alongside Trevor Halstead, and John Hayes and Paul O'Connell returning to the pack.

Christian Cullen is named ahead of Mossy Lawlor and Diogo Mateus on the bench.

With Leicester already making up lost ground in the first of their back-to-back meetings with Bourgoin, Declan Kidney stresses a defeat here would undo much of Munster's good work in winning at Welford Road and throw the pool wide open.

"We've made a great start but that's only any good to you if you follow it up with something else. Come Sunday night we could have three teams with two wins each," observed the Philips Manager of the Year.

No more than at this point last season, when Irish rugby was consumed by doom and gloom, Kidney says Munster are not getting carried away with the recent feel-good surge. He also points to the good form Cardiff are in, with their handsome victory at home to London Irish last week augmenting earlier wins over Wasps and Saracens to secure a place in the semi-finals of the EDF Energy Anglo-Welsh Cup.

"Ben Blair's kicking success is 85 to 90 per cent," Kidney adds, in reference to the boost the former All Blacks fullback has given the Blues since his arrival earlier this season, "and reaching the EDF semi-finals has a domino effect in terms of confidence. They were beaten by a late drop-goal against Leicester when they only had 14 men for half an hour. So imagine what they could have been like with 15 men for the whole 80."

Their back line is full of running threats, not least at halfback, where Mike Phillips is a potent sniper and Nick Robinson is one of the most prolific of try-scoring number 10s.

With a French referee, and a partisan, hemmed in home crowd, this is not a game Munster would want to be chasing. Their best hand is undoubtedly their starting XV, and they will need to rediscover the hint of desperation and Ronan O'Gara-inspired edge they brought to Welford Road on the opening weekend. In particular, they will need to repeat that defensive effort in Leicester, when their aggression yielded the vital first try for Donncha O'Callaghan.

It will be a surprise if they rediscover the back-line fluidity they showed against Bourgoin; a more back-to-basics, classically Munster, smash-and-grab will be required.

If their maul and O'Gara's boot give them an early foothold, they undoubtedly have the savvy to go on and win. And, knowing how, more than most, they feed off emotional motives, amid a hint of backs-against-the-wall, the case history of Cardiff's three wins out of three over them in this competition may actually be no bad thing.

CARDIFF BLUES: B Blair; T Shanklin, J Robinson, M Stcherbina, C Czekaj; N Robinson, M Phillips; G Jenkins, R Thomas, T Filise; D Jones, J Goode; S Morgan, M Williams, X Rush (capt). Replacements: J Yapp, D Goodfield, B Davies, M Lewis, E Fairhurst, N MacLeod, T James.

MUNSTER: S Payne; I Dowling, L Mafi, T Halstead, A Horgan; R O'Gara, P Stringer; F Pucciariello, F Sheahan, J Hayes; D O'Callaghan, P O'Connell; A Quinlan, D Wallace, D Leamy. Replacements: A Kyriacou, D Hurley, C Wyatt, J O'Sullivan, T O'Leary, J Manning, C Cullen.

Referee: Christophe Berdos(France).

Previous meetings:1996-97 - Cardiff 48 Munster 18. 1997-98 - Cardiff 43 Munster 23; Munster 32 Cardiff 37.

Results so far: Cardiff- 13-5 v Bourgoin (a), 17-21 v Leicester (h). Munster- 21-19 v Leicester (a); 41-23 v Bourgoin (h).

Leading try scorers: Cardiff- Nick Robinson, Chris Czekaj, Martyn Williams 1 each. Munster- Donncha O'Callaghan 2.

Betting(Paddy Power): 13/10 Cardiff, 20/1 Draw, 4/7 Munster. Handicap odds (= Cardiff +4pts) 10/11 Cardiff, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Munster.

Forecast: Munster to win.

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley is Rugby Correspondent of The Irish Times