RUGBY HEINEKEN CUP:ENTERING THE straight in the ferocious scrap for the knockout stages of the Heineken Cup over the next two weekends, now comes the serious jockeying for position. Many of the usual suspects are best placed to qualify but, as ever, some illustrious names are in danger of missing out.
No one is sacred. Even four-time winners Toulouse missed out back-to-back in 2001 and ’02, as well as four seasons ago. Two-time winners Leicester failed to qualify last season and three seasons ago, as well as 2004 and 2000. Leinster missed out as recently as 2008, before returning with renewed hunger to claim the trophy the following season.
It happens to the best of them and over the next two weekends, for the first time since 1997/98, Munster’s remarkable, unparalleled 12-year run of reaching the quarter-finals could come to an end. Of course, they’ve been in tighter squeezes, most notably when requiring a four-try, 27-point winning margin in the Miracle Match of January 2003, and duly beating Gloucester 33-6 at Thomond Park.
However, since qualifying in 1997/98, Munster have never gone into the penultimate round of matches with two defeats and thus facing elimination, as they do when encountering Toulon away on Sunday. In one of the two three-way pool tussles, and assuredly the most competitive pool of all, Munster must effectively beat Toulon at the Stade Felix Mayol to survive. Putting aside bonus points et al for a moment, the bottom line is that no team has ever progressed after losing three pool matches.
It’s the kind of occasion that makes the Heineken Cup the truly unique competition it is. It’s Munster’s season in one afternoon, and the kind of cup rugby they were reared on.
Leinster aren’t there yet either, for no one has yet qualified, though the only unbeaten sides, Northampton and Toulouse, are best placed to progress. Realistically about 15 clubs can nurture hopes of advancing to the knockout stages at a push, and this includes Ulster, who have never been so well placed to qualify at this juncture since they won the trophy in 1999 – also the last time they reached the knockout stages.
The almighty scramble over the next two weekends is given added intrigue by last season’s innovation of three pool runners-up being re-routed to the Amlin Challenge Cup. Last season the competition was ultimately won by one of the three Heineken Cup pool runners-up, namely Cardiff. The six pool winners will all progress in the Heineken along with the two best runners-up, who enter the quarter-finals as the seventh- and eighth-ranked sides, with the top four pool winners enjoying lucrative home ties in the last eight in the following match-ups: 1 v 8, 2 v 7, 3 v 6, 4 v 5.
The third, fourth and fifth best runners-up will qualify for the Amlin Challenge Cup quarter-finals along with the five pool winners in that competition; the top three enjoying home advantage in the last eight (against the three Heineken Cup runners-up) along with the fourth-ranked pool winner.
If two or more clubs finish level in the same pool, their ranking will be based on the head-to-head matches, and firstly match points, secondly most tries and thirdly aggregate points difference. If still unresolved, or if the teams are from different pool, the final ranking will be determined by number of tries scored in all pool matches, and then aggregate points difference from all pool matches.
The current format has been in operation since the 1999/2000 season, with bonus points coming into the equation in 2003/04. Since then, the threshold for the second best runners-up has varied from 19 (twice), to 20 (twice), 21 and 22 (twice), and in 2003/2004 Celtic Warriors and in 2006/2007 the Ospreys both discovered that even 20 points was not sufficient to make the knockout stages.
For the three Irish sides, all their thinking must be about winning their respective groups at this stage. None of the three, or all three, could yet progress, with history suggesting it will be one or two, but therein lies the beauty of the Heineken Cup.
