RUGBY/Munster v Toulouse: ONE STEP to greatness then. In finally, belatedly and unforgettably fulfilling their Magnificent Obsession two years ago in this enclosed, throbbing stadium, Munster showed they were not destined to remain bridesmaids, a sort of romantic adornment to the tournament. Destiny called them then, deity beckons today.
To repeat the trick would establish them where they belong, as a European superpower, all the more so as the ultimate Heineken Cup aristocrats stand, fittingly, in their way. Irish and French rugby had no right to expect such a denouement to the season, but then Munster and Toulouse are the heartbeat of the sport in both countries. Two titans go to war and all that. It's been 13 years in the making and it looks sure to be just that, a titanic tussle.
They are nations within nations, and will be supported accordingly. The sense of occasion and atmosphere within the Millennium Stadium's with closed roof is liable to be even more momentous than two years ago. Toulouse will bring their own red battalion to bang their drums and add an antidote to the massed ranks of the Red Army, while back in Limerick's O'Connell Street and Place du Capitol and beyond, they'll throng the streets and bars.
Indeed, we are all sure to be spellbound, most probably for every second of the 80 minutes. In noise or action, there will be little let up. History shows us that finals are taut and tight, with nine of the previous 12 finals decided by a score. Two have gone to extra-time, and a third should have done, while a further two were won by a point. The 20 to 1 about a draw after 80 minutes looks about the best value bet.
You go through the two teams and not only is it hard to place a cigarette paper between them, it's just as hazardous to guess where it might be won or lost. After all, who would have forecast Peter Stringer would have skated in like a boy making off from a sweet shop for the decisive try in a man of the match performance which enabled Anthony Foley - himself exceptional that day - to lift the trophy? Foley doesn't even make the bench (nor for that matter do Shaun Payne or Federico Pucciariello, a replacement that day), while Stringer is on the bench.
In confirming an unchanged starting line-up yesterday, Declan Kidney sprang something of a surprise by preferring Tony Buckley to the more experienced Pucciariello on the bench as well as choosing the 20-year-old Keith Earls ahead of Kieran Lewis for his first match-day involvement.
Coupled with the unnerving absence of Foley's savvy as an option for a tight endgame, suffice to say some of the Red Army will be hopeful Marcus Horan or any of the outside backs don't go down early. But in Deccie they trust.
Once again Kidney signed off by imploring us all to enjoy the occasion, as he and his team are set on doing. There is nothing like the taut desperation which accompanied them into the final two years ago. They exude a more relaxed air. But ditto Toulouse, and yesterday's eve-of-match press conference with the smiling captains shoulder-to-shoulder beside their coaches was strikingly relaxed.
Indeed, despite the changes, seven of the Munster pack, along with Ronan O'Gara and Ian Dowling, played in the final two years ago. O'Gara, Hayes and Wallace have played in all three of Munster's previous finals, as has Stringer, while another four of the squad have appeared in two of them. Admittedly, Toulouse aren't lacking in big-game experience, with Fabien Pelous seeking to become the first man to become a three-time winning European Cup captain, and Cedric Heymans chasing a record fourth winners medal.
Guy Noves will probably make more use of his bench, which does look a little stronger, albeit with no cover at outhalf other than Yannick Jauzion if Valentin Courrent doesn't make it. With Jean-Baptiste Poux to spring from the bench, and Jean Bouilhou on from the start, Toulouse's much improved pack will go after the Munster set-pieces. But they've proven their resilience on occasions akin to this, and provided they bring their desire for an all-out fight and O'Gara makes his early touches rather than invite Heymans and his kindred spirits to counter-attack, then we can roll up our sleeves.
A real area of concern would be Byron Kelleher's physicality and relish for carrying, while the cheeky Jean-Baptiste Elissalde looms as an Austin Healy-type figure, circa 2002, here, all the more so as Tomás O'Leary had a nervy semi-final. But even then he underlined his physical bravery, while O'Gara's cold-blooded game management as an established outhalf is undoubtedly more proven.
Each midfield has a creative threat and a defensive fallibility, for Yanick Jauzion has looked vulnerable in defence this season and Maleli Kunavore is also better with the ball than without it. But the speed of their ruck ball in that semi-final was frightening and if Jauzion gets over the gain line and frees his hands, Munster will be in serious trouble. Rua Tipoki and Lifeimi Mafi will need to be ruthless as well as aggressive, and Alan Quinlan and Denis Leamy an utter nuisance while staying on the right side of Nigel Owens, whose presence will be a real concern.
What ought to set this final apart is that both teams look ordained to have a real a go. Munster have bought into their higher risk, offloading, running game - Tipoki, Mafi and Doug Howlett won't have it any other way now, and neither most likely will O'Gara, the ever-improving Dowling and the unfazed Denis Hurley. They too now have an ability to strike from turnover ball or long-range.
While there'll be times when Munster might resort to patient recycling or kick for territory, at different junctures both will look to up the tempo. It looks sure to ebb as well as flow, with each team stretching the other to breaking point for spells. Defences win championships, and whoever endures best will probably win.
Overall, Toulouse are probably the more potent force, but also the more porous, as evidenced by their try tally of 19 for and 11 against in their eight ties, as against Munster's 15-8 count. And ultimately, you can't help but feel the absence of the brilliant Clerc - whose try-scoring ratio against Irish teams verges on the vindictive - is somehow a harbinger of good tidings for Munster.
It'll need Munster's best performance of the season. Concentration against a team prepared to take risks and do the unexpected like no other will be imperative. Heymans and co seem almost to have a sixth sense for those moments when opponents might switch off. But for what it's worth, what sways this vote towards Munster is the belief that, defensively especially, they have a trust in each other that, right now, no team in Europe possesses.
Either way, Kidney is right in imploring us all to enjoy it. Rarely do finals throw up such fascinating, truly heavyweight match-ups. Though dangerous to suggest so, however it pans out this has the makings of an epic that will live long in the memory as well as the video vault. Bring it on.
Munster: D Hurley; D Howlett, L Mafi, R Tipoki, I Dowling; R O'Gara, T O'Leary; M Horan, J Flannery, J Hayes; D O'Callaghan, P O'Connell (capt); A Quinlan, D Wallace, D Leamy. Replacements: F Sheahan, T Buckley, M O'Driscoll, D Ryan, P Stringer, P Warwick, K Earls
Toulouse: C Heymans; M Medard, M Kunavore, Y Jauzion, Y Donguy; J-B Elissalde, B Kelleher; D Human, W Servat, S Perugini; F Pelous (capt), P Albacete; J Bouilhou, T Dusautoir, S Sowerby Replacements: A Vernet Basualdo, J-B Poux, R Millo-Chluski, Y Nyanga, F Fritz, M Ahotaeiloa, V Courrent
HOW THEY GOT HERE: Munster- 23-24 v Wasps (a); 36- 13 v Clermont Auvergne (h); 29-16 v Llanelli Scarlets (a); 22-13 v Llanelli Scarlets (h); 19-26 v Clermont Auvergne (a); 19-3 v Wasps (h). (q/f) 16-3 v Gloucester (a). (s/f) 18-16 v Saracens (a).
Toulouse- 19-15 v Edinburgh (a); 33-6 v Leinster; 9-14 v Leicester (a); 22-11 v Leicester (h); 13-20 v Leinster (a); 34-10 Edinburgh (h); (q/f) 41-17 v Cardiff (h); (s/f) 21-15 v London Irish (a).
Leading try scorers: Munster - Shaun Payne, Rua Tipoki, Alan Quinlan, Brian Carney, Marcus Horan 2 tries each. Toulouse - Vincent Clerc 5, Maxime Medard, Clement Poitrenaud, Yves Donguy 2 each.
Betting(Paddy Powers): To Lift Trophy _ 8/11 Munster, 11/10 Toulouse. Over 80 minutes _ 4/5 Munster, 20/1 Draw, 23/20 Toulouse. Handicap odds (= Toulouse +1pt) 10/11 Munster, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Toulouse.
Forecast: Munster to win.
