LONDON IRISH v TOULOUSEGEORDAN MURPHY has a neat way of endorsing Toulouse's credentials ahead of their Heineken Cup semi-final against London Irish at Twickenham on Saturday, suggesting "the races don't always go to the swift or the battle to the strong but that's the way to bet".
The Leicester Tigers and Ireland fullback is in Dublin fulfilling a commercial assignment and he cuts a relaxed figure, the frustration of his Achilles injury having disappeared after his return to action last weekend.
He played 65 minutes for the Tigers by which point they already had a bonus-point victory secured when he was invited not to overdo things on his comeback. He is well placed to offer an overview of this weekend's Heineken Cup semi-finals having played competitively against three of the four teams - Munster being the exception - already this season.
While Murphy's head says Toulouse he is polite enough to listen to an argument that London Irish possess the tools to surprise the three-time European champions. He understands the merit of the Exiles claims based on their French opponents' away form in the tournament this season.
"They (Toulouse) were in our pool and lost at Welford Road, in Dublin and barely scraped through in Edinburgh. They had a home quarter-final and spanked Cardiff.
"Realistically, London Irish would have a shot if you were to consider Toulouse's performances in the tournament this season away from France."
There is a "but" coming. Murphy elaborated: "The London Irish defence (could be a weakness) in that they try to operate a blitz and they're not as well organised as they might be at times. I don't think they have enough confidence in it, possibly (based) on not repeating it enough.
"Against a team like Toulouse that could be a problem, assuming - and there's not reason not to - that they do their homework. If Toulouse don't take them (Irish) seriously or they don't turn up on the day then I fancy London Irish to win."
The likely composition of Irish's inside backs provokes a definite reply.
Murphy explained: "They'll play Mike Catt (he is an injury concern) at 12 and Shane Geraghty at outhalf. I think that's their best alignment. Catt's a quality player in terms of keeping them going forward. He can take it to the line and sling something wide that'll make the most of the pace they have out wide."
Toulouse are bedevilled by their own injury problems that deny them players of the calibre of Vincent Clerc, Clement Poitrenaud, Thierry Dusautoir and Florian Fritz but it is Clerc's absence that Murphy believes will be most keenly felt.
"He (Clerc) is one of the best wingers in the world and he's been on fire this season. He runs fantastic lines and has the happy knack of being in the right place at the right time. It promises to be a cracking game which I think Toulouse will just about win."
There is less conjecture about the outcome of Sunday's semi-final as the Tigers fullback can't see beyond a Munster victory.
"Saracens have some good forwards who will work hard and fine halfbacks who can control a game, given the latitude. They aren't playing as well as they did last year but they have reached this stage purely by scrapping away. The Ospreys took Saracens far too lightly and were rightly punished.
"Saracens are going to have to defend as if their lives depended on it and look for one breakaway try. They will have to take every chance and give up next to nothing (but) there's nobody better in a tight game than Munster."
On a personal level Murphy desperately wants to nudge the Tigers into the play-offs - they have two games left - and then swap jerseys for the green of Ireland and a summer tour to New Zealand and Australia.
