New Zealand could be vulnerable

For over a century, the Springboks and the All Blacks have been the teams that set the standard in international rugby

For over a century, the Springboks and the All Blacks have been the teams that set the standard in international rugby. In over a century the Lions won only one Test series in New Zealand - in 1971- as against four won in South Africa, the two most recent being in 1974 and 1995.

The All Blacks' record against the five major European nations is also superior. For instance, neither Ireland nor Scotland have beaten the All Blacks, draws being the best results both have attained, while both have beaten the Springboks.

In clashes between the sides, the All Blacks lead South Africa with 29 wins to 26 and three have been drawn. What may be more relevant is that over the last three years the All Blacks have won five of the seven matches between the countries, in the Tri-Nations series.

A win against the All Blacks has proved outside Ireland's range and tomorrow Ireland will get an opportunity to rectify that. The All Blacks have a new coach and one familiar enough with the Irish scene in John Mitchell. Not alone did he play for Garryowen, but he also, for a time, helped coach Ireland under Murray Kidd before moving to English club Sale, and he subsequently became coach to the England forwards up until the 1999 World Cup.

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It also adds to the match tomorrow that Warren Gatland is a former team-mate of Mitchell. Both are former All Blacks and they played over 100 times together for Waikato. They were team-mates when Waikato, captained by Mitchell, defeated the 1993 Lions in Hamilton as Gatland scored a try. Mick Galwey was on the Lions team that afternoon.

There is no such thing as a bad All Blacks team - some obviously have been more powerful and accomplished than others. But there is a belief the All Blacks are vulnerable. A new coach has set out his stall with some new players, some notable absentees and some selections that provoked controversy in New Zealand.

So maybe they are, indeed, by their own very high standards, vulnerable. What we saw in Ravenhill on Tuesday night indicates some strength and quality in depth in the true traditions of All Blacks squads.

Has this Ireland side the capacity to capitalise on any such vulnerability? Well, the signs are good. Ireland have played four matches in the last seven weeks. After the loss to Scotland there followed the remedial action taken in team selection and a record win over Wales in Cardiff. Then came that great win over England and last Sunday the 35-8 victory over Samoa without some distinguished players.

So Ireland will go into the match against a background of three successive wins that yielded over 90 points. Allied to that fine record, one can add the successes of the Irish provinces in the European Cup and the Celtic League. So some reasons for confidence that we could see a really big performance.

The closest Ireland have come to defeating the All Blacks was in 1973 with a 10-10 scoreline at Lansdowne Road. Tom Grace scored a great try to bring the teams level late in the game and Barry McGann's conversion attempt into the wind from the right touchline veered inches wide after it looked as if it was going to go over. In 1963 Ireland lost by a point to Wilson Whineray's team, 6-5.

The most recent close call came in Dunedin on the 1992 tour. Ireland lost the first Test 24-21, due to a bad decision by the referee and a missed opportunity in the final moments. A week later against a very depleted Ireland team the All Blacks did a demolition job in Wellington winning 59-6. The most recent meeting of the teams came in Dublin in 1997 when the visitors recorded the biggest win ever over Ireland, 63-15.

So the Ireland players have the huge incentive of becoming the first Ireland team to beat the All Blacks. There are few bigger prizes in the game. Last week England beat Australia, France beat South Africa and how nice it would be for Six Nations rugby if Ireland make a hat-trick over the three big powers in the Southern Hemisphere before the faithful at Lansdowne Road.