IT’S HARD to imagine any operation in world racing other than Coolmore/Ballydoyle that could survive the defection of a long-time Investec Derby favourite like St Nicholas Abbey and come to Epsom still in a position to dominate the world’s greatest Classic.

But that certainly looks to be the case today with Jan Vermeer widely expected to become Aidan O’Brien’s first Derby winner in eight years — and a third in all – which in turn would make Johnny Murtagh a four-time Derby winner.

That would place Murtagh ahead of such legendary names as Eddery, Kinane and Fallon in racing’s most famous roll-of-honour and Ireland’s champion jockey admits to being “very confident” of Jan Vermeer’s chance.

Considering how St Nicholas Abbey was rated so superior to everything else at Ballydoyle until muscle problems earlier in the week ruled him out, that only reinforces how deep the pool of talent is at the world’s most famous racing yard.

But it may be worth betting that that pool could yet end up biting at Murtagh as, in betting terms, the best value option going into the two hundredth and thirty first Derby may be the Ballydoyle number two Midas Touch.

Undoubtedly Jan Vermeer does have a lot going for him, like having two defeats of Midas Touch already to his credit for one, but there remain enough question marks around him at short odds to make him opposable.

One is the fact that he looked set to follow a French Derby route for much of this season until problems arose with St Nicholas Abbey, and a foot problem resulted in Jan Vermeer only reappearing in the Gallinule Stakes 13 days ago.

That resulted in an eye-catchingly smooth victory under a Group One penalty but less than two weeks is hardly an ideal interval between races and the famous “bounce” factor could come into the equation.

Although he is by Montjeu, Jan Vermeer is also no certainty on breeding to stay as his dam’s side is all milers and sprinters.

In contrast, based on a Derrinstown Stud Trial success, Midas Touch is sure to stay and act on the ground and while the old cliché says that proven stamina coming into the Derby is usually a sign of being too slow, it may be worth betting that Midas Touch has improved significantly for that Leopardstown victory.

His jockey, Colm O’Donoghue, indicated as much yesterday and the 29-year-old Buttevant-born rider can enjoy the greatest moment of his career this afternoon.

O’Donoghue is experienced around Epsom, having finished fifth on Golden Sword last year, and has Group One success to his credit with Spartacus (2002 Phoenix Stakes), Astronomer Royal (2007 French 2,000 Guineas) and Jan Vermeer in last year’s Criterium-International.

“Jan Vermeer is probably the one we all have to beat but Midas Touch has definitely improved since Leopardstown. He is sharper and working good since,” O’Donoghue said yesterday.

“He was workmanlike at Leopardstown but won in a good time and I’m delighted to get the ride.”

The most vital part of today’s race for O’Donoghue may in fact be the first half-mile climb. If Midas Touch is in a good position at the top of the hill, then it will be hard to keep him out of the frame.

Of the home team, Workforce still looks a raw type of colt, and his breeding is not particularly encouraging, while Godolphin’s in-and-out form does not encourage belief in Rewilding or Al Zir. Coordinated Cut, however, may surprise at a decent price.

In terms of finding a winner though, this looks like being a Ballydoyle party. It’s just a question of which one?

Derby Pinsticker

AL ZIR: (Kieren Fallon: 16-1)Giant colt fancied by trainer Saeed Bin Suroor to improve dramatically on a disappointing 2,000 Guineas performance. The Fallon factor will guarantee support but Dettori has selected another Godolphin starter.

AT FIRST SIGHT: (Séamus Heffernan 200-1)Just nosed out of a Derby Trial at Leopardstown in April but likely to be used as a pacemaker for Aidan O'Brien's other two runners today.

AZMEEL: (William Buick: 12-1.)Trainer John Gosden won the Derby in 1997 with Benny The Dip whose profile resembles Azmeel's. Overcame trouble in running to win Chester's Dee Stakes. An each-way possible but it is hard to see him winning.

BULLET TRAIN: (Tom Queally: 7-1.)Winner of the Lingfield Derby Trial and set to be a sentimental favourite as Henry Cecil pursues a fifth win in the race. Sure to stay the trip and act on the track but doubtful if he is quick enough.

BUZZWORD: (Ahmed Ajtebi: 50-1.)Has some excellent juvenile form and ran fourth in the French 2,000 Guineas behind Lope De Vega. Ground conditions should not be a problem but no certainty to stay a mile and a half on breeding.

COORDINATED CUT: (Jamie Spencer: 16-1.)Trainer Michael Bell won with Motivator five years ago and this one is also a son of Montjeu. Ridden wrong when third in the Dante and more patient tactics will see Coordinated Cut out-run his odds.

HOT PROSPECT: (Philip Robinson: 66-1.)Third to both Bullet Train and Coordinated Cut already this season, his trainer has admitted he will be delighted if Hot Prospect makes the first five.

JAN VERMEER: (Johnny Murtagh: 6-4 fav.)Perfect profile as a Group One-winning juvenile and a son of Montjeu, although some stamina worries on his dam's side. Impressive on reappearance in the Gallinule but that was just 13 days ago. Murtagh is "very confident." Deserving favourite.

MIDAS TOUCH: (Colm O'Donoghue: 7-1.)A Derrinstown Trial winner who is sure to stay and will act on the fast conditions. Worked well with St Nicholas Abbey last week and looks hard to keep out of the frame.

REWILDING: (Frankie Dettori: 5-1.)Was with Andre Fabre in France until a few weeks ago when transferred to Godolphin. Won impressively at Goodwood where he acted well on the track. Should figure prominently.

TED SPREAD: (Michael Hills: 33-1)A Chester Vase winner where he looked to need every inch of the mile and a half. Could be outclassed in this company.

WORKFORCE: (Ryan Moore: 9-2.)No horse beaten in the Dante has ever won the Derby but Michael Stoute is a four-time winner and this one looks at least as good as North Light and Kris Kin. May still be too inexperienced for a task like this.

BRIAN O'CONNOR'S VERDICT

1. MIDAS TOUCH.

2. Coordinated Cut.

3. Jan Vermeer