RUGBY: Maybe it's the cynicism that comes with such medical bulletins over the years, but the chances of Paul O'Connell making the kick-off on Saturday for what is scheduled to be the last RBS Six Nations game at Lansdowne Road before its redevelopment do not appear encouraging.

Not when the coach rates the lock's chances as no better than 50-50 and grants him an additional 48 hours to prove his fitness.

Not that O'Connell isn't worth the wait. One only has to think back to the corresponding fixture last year when O'Connell's tour de force as captain helped forge a sleeves-rolled-up, 40-13 win at Murrayfield as Ireland resorted to a Munsteresque back-to-basics approach. O'Connell's get-outta-my-way try, one of three by the tight five, was the game's defining moment.

Back to his best, alas O'Connell hasn't played since sustaining a strained A/C joint against France over three weeks ago, and after taking no part in scrummaging yesterday Ireland coach Eddie O'Sullivan admitted: "It's a pretty important joint in terms of playing rugby because it's a high collision sport and he carries the ball a lot. It's been slow in coming back. Rehabing isn't just about resting, it's about pushing the injury and trying to push it to the limit . . . Every so often it goes well but then you get a setback."

Admittedly, O'Connell has taken some contact work and he himself didn't think his chances of making the kick-off were merely 50-50. "Better than that," he said. "Hopefully I should be alright." Vacancies have been left in both secondrow slots and on the bench, and a decision is due to be made tomorrow. O'Sullivan maintained: "I'll say again, if he doesn't play in this one, I'd be confident he'll play against England."

Were Ireland to win this weekend, and England win in Paris, then effectively the Twickenham head-to-head would be a title decider, with Ireland one win away from their first championship crown since 1985.

If O'Connell makes it, O'Sullivan will have to choose between Malcolm O'Kelly and Donncha O'Callaghan. If O'Connell is ruled out, the likelihood is O'Kelly and O'Callaghan will continue in the secondrow with Mick O'Driscoll on the bench. None of this, O'Sullivan maintained, has been coloured by the Scots' changed secondrow, which sees the return of experienced duo Scott Murray, after his suspension, and Nathan Hines, which he admitted "strengthens their lineout" after the blip against England.

The experience of Murray and Hines was a decisive factor in their recall, according to Scotland coach Frank Hadden. "We're really confident we're going to keep getting better. If we're confident you're going to keep getting better you have every right to go to Lansdowne Road with a level of expectation.

"It's pretty clear to me where Ireland are at the moment and it's pretty clear to me they've not fulfilled their potential. Obviously that's something they're working on but our familiarity with the Irish and Welsh sides is pretty good . . . We've a very clear picture of what we need to do to get the result we're after at the weekend."

For his part, naming an otherwise unchanged team was, O'Sullivan admitted, a pretty routine selection. "To be honest yeah, it was. As I said after the (Welsh) game I was happy with the frontrow and the backrow, and I was happy with the backs as a unit. I would say I was disappointed with some aspects of our team but I didn't see any compelling reason to change."

Describing Scotland as "the team of the championship" so far, O'Sullivan observed how settled and single-minded they have been, and how they have restored their customary passion. Compared to the challenge presented by Wales O'Sullivan commented while the Scots will also attack the outside channels they utilise Dan Park's kicking at outhalf in a more balanced, mixed game, whether driving off their lineout maul, running up the middle or wide, or kicking in behind. The bedrock of Scotland's wins has been their "outstanding" defence. "It's been very aggressive, very organised and they've created a lot of turnovers at the ruck area, particularly in the outside channels. They've just done a bloody good job . . ."

In a similar position, talk of a title showdown on the last week with England was "a distraction" for the penultimate game against Wales three years ago. "We got lucky and got out of jail to be honest that day," admitted O'Sullivan of a day when winless Wales had been written off, "but I think no one would write Scotland off to that level."

O'Sullivan was asked to address the critique in these pages from Matt Williams which must have grated, that Ireland are not playing to their potential. "My answer to that is that it's a team in transition. We started the transition of the team last autumn and that's still a work in progress. I would love if that job was done . . . But we're a year and a half out from the World Cup and we've made eight changes from the team last year. I don't know if any team in the championship is firing on all cylinders at the moment."

When asked why this might be, O'Sullivan said: "Everyone is kind of in transition toward the World Cup and the other thing is the championship has got tighter and defences have begun to dominate games. It's getting harder to score. Maybe Scotland are the ones to look at, but other than that I think everyone would come in for a bit of flak on that front."