Here at Tour Headquarters we tend to look upon the bookmaking industry with something between mild amusement and outright disdain. For the small-time punter, gambling on the winner of any half-decent tournament is surely a mug's game.
On the European Tour alone this season, Tim Clark, Richard S Johnson, Arjun Atwal, Malcolm Mackenzie, Miles Tunnicliff and Tobias Dier have all been in the winner's enclosure, while Craig Perks' victory in the Players Championship in March was barely predictable with one round to go, let alone four. What a Golf Masters line-up those seven would have made.
Sam Snead used to argue that no player was dominant enough to merit odds tighter than 8 to 1 for a regular event. The market leader for the Dutch Open, 7 to 1 chance Padraig Harrington, has only four European Tour wins in his career and none so far this season.
Second favourite Retief Goosen (8 to 1) last triumphed in Europe six months and 11 tournaments ago. Between them and 200 to 1 shot Tobias Dier were another 83 players, including such luminaries as Henrik Bjornstad and Robert-jan Derksen, plus Tunnicliff and Atwal. All four missed the cut which is the fate rational analysis would have predicted for Dier.
Before last week, the 25-year old German had won just €18,747 this year and had 12 unwanted free weekends during which to spend it. Then, with no warning, he fired as many sub-70 rounds in the Dutch Open as he had altogether since mid-March. These included his opening 60 that laid the foundations for victory, a two-year exemption and a cheque for €300,000.
How is the punter supposed to survive? We defy anyone to show us a winning Tobias Dier betting slip, and will send a windcheater, maybe two, to anyone who does.
Far better, we say, to make a few Golf Masters transfers, go off on holidays and forget about it all. By the time you come back you could have a voucher for a fourball at Carton House plus lunch waiting in the post. And we can name someone who did just that.
Séamus O'Toole, from Mornington, Co Meath, called our transfer line last Wednesday week, no doubt frustrated with the performance of Team 15,744 who languished 5,601st on our overall leaderboard. Out went Darren Clarke, Lee Janzen, JL Lewis, Per-Ulrik Johansson and Stephen Dodd, and in came Justin Rose, Chris Riley, Peter Lonard, Tim Herron and Fred Funk. Off to relax in Portugal went O'Toole as his recruits contributed to a weekly winning total of €300,000.
Pat Corby could be excused for being a little miffed at O'Toole's success. Clearly his Sonata 15 and Concerto 15 teams were singing from the same hymn sheet with identical totals of €293,000 to rank second and third. He can take solace from the fact that the Sonata selection is now 48th overall.
