SOCCER ANGLES:For the eight teams in the bottom half of the table this is now an 11-game season and as each passes, anxiety, or relief will increasewrites MICHAEL WALKER
THIS IS mainly a relegation column. This is mainly a Burnley column. But those two facts may not necessarily go together in May despite Burnley’s position second-bottom of the Premier League with only debt-crushed Portsmouth beneath them.
You are allowed to scoff, particularly at five o’clock when Burnley depart Arsenal with what is likely to be their 14th defeat in 15 away games in this their first Premier League season.
That would leave Burnley mired and their goal difference either worse or considerably worse. Burnley are 22 to 1 to win this afternoon. They are almost
3 to 1-on to be relegated. When people say the odds are stacked against, they’re talking about Burnley. And yet . . .
There are only three Premier League games this afternoon and by tonight both Manchester United and Arsenal could have leaped above Chelsea. So there will be no shortage of drama.
If that is the case, then it means Wolves, and Burnley, will have lost. There will be fresh agitation at the bottom.
Eight clubs, from Portsmouth in 20th place to West Ham United in 13th, can be relegated. For those eight this is now an 11-game season and as each fixture passes, anxiety, or relief will increase.
There is tremendous passion in England for the World Cup, but this is a country where clubs have long-dominated the national team in terms of affection. Relegation or survival will feel like losing, or winning, the World Cup.
If the trend of the last three seasons is followed then 34 points might keep a team up. In 2006-’07, 38 points were needed, in ’07-’08 it was 36 points. Last season Hull City stayed up with 35 points. One point less and Hull would have been relegated on inferior goal difference to Newcastle.
Bearing in mind that Portsmouth are 15 points off safety and are about to be docked nine more for entering administration, it is a case of perming two from the remaining seven. Pompey are displaying a degree of defiance about their economic meltdown but once administration becomes official, the mindset among Fratton Park players can change.
It would be no surprise if some start to think of their next contract, next club and next season. Given Portsmouth are yet to host Hull and Wolves, and travel to Bolton, any on-pitch implosion could yet skew the table.
That 34-point target might have to be upped to, say, 37.
After 27 games, Burnley are on 23 points and along with Hull, Burnley have the worst goal difference in the Premier League. Also like Hull, Burnley are yet to win away from home this season.
But Burnley have only lost three times at home and after today have six of their last 10 games at Turf Moor. The home run begins next Wednesday against Stoke.
Win that and some of the belief that dwindled with Owen Coyle’s mid-season departure to Bolton will return. It is a night Burnley must not lose because three days later they host Wolves. In terms of survival next week feels like the cliched defining moment for new manager Brian Laws.
Two wins would see the Clarets go above Wolves and possibly out of the bottom three altogether as Hull would also surely be leapfrogged. Hull go to Everton tomorrow and host Arsenal next weekend.
So the dynamics down there could alter. Hull then meet Burnley on Humberside next month. “A nine-pointer,” as Shay Given would say.
But if Burnley have momentum gained from next week, then it is possible to plot a path to what appears now to be unlikely: safety.
When top-scorer Steven Fletcher broke a bone in his hand on international duty with Scotland on Monday, you thought this was the wrong news at the wrong time. But Fletcher should be fit today, though Laws may decide that Wednesday matters more.
Stoke, safe in the league and at Chelsea in the FA Cup tomorrow, should give everything at Stamford Bridge.
If they do and if they then lose at Turf Moor, there will be knock-on effects. What would a Burnley victory over Stoke do to Wolves? After hosting United this evening, Burnley is the first of three consecutive away games for Mick McCarthy’s side.
Journeys to Aston Villa and West Ham follow and after Everton visit Molineux, it is Arsenal away. Wolves have won one of their last nine in the league and of their next six, Turf Moor – on paper – offers most hope of another.
The sense of doom surrounding Burnley does not apply to Wolves. That, too, can change.
The other Premier League game today sees West Ham face Bolton. Bolton then go to Sunderland on Tuesday. These are huge, tricky occasions for all concerned because no one feels secure. Coyle will want at least a point from these two because he will have looked at the fixture list and noted that Bolton’s run-in, featuring games against Chelsea, United, Villa, Tottenham and Everton, is the toughest of the lot. He of all people will not want to be caught by the Clarets.
Wembley pitch scores Owen goal
LAST SUNDAY'S League Cup final will surely come to be remembered for three reasons, none of which will be that this was Alex Ferguson's 34th major trophy at Manchester United, a staggering achievement.
No, what people will recall will be the decision of the referee not to apply the letter of the law to Nemanja Vidic when awarding the Aston Villa penalty converted by James Milner – though they may struggle to recall Phil Dowd by name.
Then there will be the general state of the pitch. It was remarkably poor. Wembley's reconstruction cost around €885 million and yet the pitch is not fit for purpose.
It took Villa 10 years to get back to Wembley, then they find they can't stand up. As the wise-beyond-his-years Milner pointed out, Arsenal have also just built a new stadium in north London and their surface is of billiard table smoothness. How hard can it be?
Yesterday, when revealing that Michael Owen's 41 minutes at Wembley was his last action of the season, Ferguson said that the heavy pitch on Sunday "played some part" in Owen's hamstring trouble.
Owen, not so long ago the definitive England poster-boy, will not be going to the World Cup. Effectively his international career is over – Fabio Capello has all but ignored him anyway.
But the fact that Wembley Stadium, home of the Football Association, played some part is an irony England and the FA surely cannot simply dismiss.
