Charlie Swan, tipster for The Irish Times, believes that with the expected very soft ground at this year's festival jockeyship will be a crucial factor.
Having got a glimpse of my old life when the chance of riding Brave Inca in the Champion Hurdle briefly raised its head, it will be a new experience for a lot of us at next week's festival when it looks likely we will have testing ground at Cheltenham in March for the first time in almost 20 years.
The Brave Inca situation was interesting while it lasted, but once Paul Nicholls let it be known he wouldn't need Ruby (Walsh) for the Champion Hurdle, a return to the saddle for yours truly was never likely. What it did tell me, though, is I still do miss race-riding: at least on the big days. Going to ride at Clonmel or Thurles on a wet Thursday in January I don't miss at all.
It all started as a bit of joke. Colm Murphy is someone I know well from the Istabraq days and he was asking me one day who he might get if Tony (McCoy) or Ruby weren't available. I was half laughing when I said "don't forget me", but, when he asked if I was serious, I realised I would love the chance. Fitness wouldn't have been a problem. I ride five lots a day, do loads of schooling and hunting, so I'm still very fit.
It would have been really exciting to ride Brave Inca, but, now the chance is gone, I don't think I'll have another crack at race-riding. It's dangerous to say "never", but it will probably be charity races from now on. Besides, it looks like turning into a very different type of festival from most of the ones I was involved in. Plenty of plans have been scuppered by the weather this winter and the usual feeling that good ground will be back in place for Cheltenham isn't going to happen, it seems.
The one thing that might mean is jockeyship will become even more of a factor. On very soft ground, experience will count for a lot. The lads who've been there and done it will have even more of an advantage. Cheltenham is a difficult track to ride at the best of times, but with the ground the way it is it's going to be even harder. I reckon we'll be in for some big upsets and some big-priced outsiders.
A lot of horses are going to go off too quickly, and older and wiser heads will be waiting to come from a long way off the pace. I know from having ridden at the Murphys meeting once, when the ground was terrible, that getting it right will be a tough job.
Overall, I think Irish horses will do well again this year, but I don't see a repeat of last year's 10 winners or anything near it. We look to be a little low in the novice department and I think the English handicapper hasn't done us too many favours. Of course, the same was said last year and we did well, but I don't see the same thing happening. I can see a score of five or six winners.
I would love to see Brave Inca do well in the Champion Hurdle, and Hardy Eustace too, but this could be a tough year for all the Irish horses against Detroit City. I know five-year-olds have a poor record, but to me he is the horse they all have to beat. The Irish horses all look as good as ever, but Detroit City is the coming horse with fresher legs.
One thing I could see happening though is the three of them, Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace and Detroit City, all at the front and maybe going too fast. If that happens, it could be set up for a come-from-behind horse like Macs Joy or Straw Bear.
Kauto Star is the class act in the Gold Cup, but there's no question, it is a race for stayers, so will he stay? There's also his jumping. I just wonder if he starts making mistakes when he sees too much daylight. I can see Ruby covering him right up and maybe not going for it until after the last.
Exotic Dancer loves Cheltenham, will be fine on the ground and is in very good form, so he must be a big danger. And if it gets really heavy, The Listener and maybe even Beef Or Salmon will come into it. But it will be fascinating to see how Ruby tries to get the favourite around.
My bet of the meeting, however, is Lounaos in the Triumph Hurdle. I think she will be different class. We are talking about a filly who carried a big weight as a three-year-old to win the November Handicap at Leopardstown. She jumps very well and I think Eoin Griffin has given her a perfect preparation. I see she's been 5 to 1 for the race. I reckon she'll be half that on the day. We're talking about a very good filly here - and she gets a 7lb allowance.
Amaretto Rose gets the same in the Supreme Novices Hurdle on Tuesday and that looks a lot for another quality mare. She looks good. If you're looking for an outsider in that race, maybe Clopf will go close.
Edward O'Grady's horses are possibly on their way back after being sick. But the one of Edward's I really like is Catch Me in the Ballymore Properties Novice Hurdle. When he first came to Ireland, and won two flat races, he looked very good.
I know Aran Concerto looks very good too, but there have been rumours not all of Noel's horses have been healthy, and getting up that hill, especially on heavy ground, requires you to be in the full of your health.
Another horse I like is Aranleigh in the bumper. He beat Mad Fish at Fairyhouse on atrocious ground and I remember it well, because a horse of mine was third and I couldn't believe he was beaten so far.
It looks like I will have two runners at the festival. Ground Ball has become something of a Cheltenham regular and this time we are aiming him at the Grand Annual. He has been a little disappointing lately, but seems to be in good form again now.
Oodachee looks like going for the Jewson on Thursday. I was preferring the Kim Muir, but I'm not sure about three miles on very soft ground. He ran a great race in the Pertemps last year and his preparation has been perfect. He had November, December and January off and ran well on his comeback. He jumps well too. My worry is the ground. But I reckon a lot of trainers will be saying the same thing this year.
(In an interview with Brian O'Connor)
